NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA
Just 8 days until Florida State plays Georgia Tech!
A lot happened while you were away:
Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC
The Pac-12 went out in a blaze of glory:
Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA are headed to the B1G
Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado are headed to the B12
Cal and Stanford along with SMU are somehow headed to the ACC
Poor old Wazzu and Oregon State are now aligned with the MWC in some sort of in-flux relationship
The conferences are huge now, and the schedules are wildly imbalanced. Florida might have the hardest schedule in the history of the sport, while Missouri's playing a sun-belt slate.
FSU and Clemson play each other, but then play ZERO common ACC opponents
Utah/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas State play non-conference games against conference opponents
LSU and USC play in Vegas!
Boise goes to Oregon, a team they've never lost to!
Texas at Michigan!
Alabama at Wisconsin!
Notre Dame at ATM!
Clemson vs Georgia!
And there are some incredibly juicy new conference matchups:
Texas @ ATM is back!
Texas vs Georgia
Oregon vs Ohio State
USC @ Michigan
USC vs Penn State
And then the bizarre:
UCLA @ Rutgers is now a conference game
Syracuse plays home and away against Cal and Stanford for some reason
Half the teams have new coaches, transferred quarterbacks, or both!
Let's get it on!
we all obv already realize this but the SEC is far and away CFB's superior conf
ACC sneaky close to the B1G
I was looking at standings yesterday and the expanded conferences really suck for conference races.
In a smaller league, as a fan of one team you can usually find a rooting interest in a lot of the other conference games. With 18 teams, there are just so many purely irrelevant games each week.
sorry fossilkid
It was weird when I looked at UCLA schedule the other day and at the top of The Score it listed them as 18th in the big ten.
I didn't see the game, but apparently Washington lost with a 96.7% postgame win expectancy over Rutgers. In a game without turnovers, that seems like quite an accomplishment!
Honorable mention to Auburn; now underwater two straight weeks, losing with a 75.3% pgwe after last week's 93.3%. I'm sure there's a narrative in there somewhere.
I didn't see the game, but apparently Washington lost with a 96.7% postgame win expectancy over Rutgers. In a game without turnovers, that seems like quite an accomplishment!
Honorable mention to Auburn; now underwater two straight weeks, losing with a 75.3% pgwe after last week's 93.3%. I'm sure there's a narrative in there somewhere.
where can if find these PGWE%s?
i found it
The TD run starting at 1:11 in that video is pretty insane. That guy just breaks tackles in every run though.
Google sheet link in his twitter handle thingee:
Google sheet link in his twitter handle thingee:
tyty
I could see Bama moving up to 3 or 2. Not sure I agree with getting #1 after almost blowing such a huge lead.
Had they maintained the lead, then #1 would be a no brainer.
Daniels 46-for-51 last two games.
So, wild quirk now that Army and Navy are both part of the AAC. Right now both teams are undefeated. If they finish 1-2 in the AAC, they will meet in the conference championship game, and *then* meet the following week in the traditional end of season game with Commander in Chief’s Trophy implications. So it isn’t impossible that we get Army/Navy twice this season.
Don't know if this was mentioned by anyone earlier, but apparently the CFP committee already decided the Army/Navy game will NOT count towards any potential playoff seeding.
I can't see either group resting players but man...there would be a serious incentive to if it came to that.
IU ranked. Ill be goddamned. Coach Cig statue when??
Don't know if this was mentioned by anyone earlier, but apparently the CFP committee already decided the Army/Navy game will NOT count towards any potential playoff seeding.
I can't see either group resting players but man...there would be a serious incentive to if it came to that.
Much more likely they rest players for the AAC CG than Army-Navy, imo. These are lifers who would never hear the end of it.
Would love to here from Bigdaddydvo but I suspect future promotions (or whatever the military term is) would be at risk and the coaches possibly fired before halftime, if not before kickoff. Similarly I suspect just hearing the question posed would make him like the Randy picture.
Kinda can't believe Georgia went from +350 to Title to +650 after the Alabama Game.
I don't see a 9-3 Georgia getting left out and they'd still probably be favored over all but 1 or 2 teams in the field if they get there.
I was looking at standings yesterday and the expanded conferences really suck for conference races.
In a smaller league, as a fan of one team you can usually find a rooting interest in a lot of the other conference games. With 18 teams, there are just so many purely irrelevant games each week.
In real poll-based college football you could find the significance in Tulsa @ Hawaii.
Kinda can't believe Georgia went from +350 to Title to +650 after the Alabama Game.
I don't see a 9-3 Georgia getting left out and they'd still probably be favored over all but 1 or 2 teams in the field if they get there.
Well I was on the edge knowing the loser of the Bama-UGA game would have a modest reduction of chances to get a first round bye in an expanded playoff.
I didn't see the game, but apparently Washington lost with a 96.7% postgame win expectancy over Rutgers. In a game without turnovers, that seems like quite an accomplishment!
Honorable mention to Auburn; now underwater two straight weeks, losing with a 75.3% pgwe after last week's 93.3%. I'm sure there's a narrative in there somewhere.
I had a lot of money on Washington and 97% seems about right from watching that game.
Needless to say I'm on Washington +1.5 and Nebraska -6.5 this week.
Kinda can't believe Georgia went from +350 to Title to +650 after the Alabama Game.
I don't see a 9-3 Georgia getting left out and they'd still probably be favored over all but 1 or 2 teams in the field if they get there.
9-3 UGA is probably getting in. They'd have beaten Clemson (by a zillion) and one of @ Texas, @ Ole Miss and v Tennessee and the benefit of the doubt of being UGA, but it's certainly not a lock. Also, there's now a ~10% chance they go 8-4 and get left out that way.
The odds explosion does seem extreme, but it's mostly them having to play 4 games instead of 3 in the playoffs, although that extra game is likely a home game against Boise State or something. But you could see them somehow falling to 6 seed and having to play Penn State or USC or something.
I also haven't thought about this before, but I think the 1 seed is actually super valuable now because the 4th seed is locked in to be the 4th highest conference champ, which is going to be much, much worse on average than the 2nd or 3rd highest rated conference champ. The SEC and B1G champs are locked in to 1 and 2 probably, and then you have Miami likely sliding into the 3 which makes the 4 either Utah or K-State or Boise or something. And then say you get some bullshit like Cal or Pitt or some dark horse sliding in and upsetting Miami/Clemson in the ACCCG, then you get rewarded with that team in 4th. (Although the flip side of it is you probably don't actually play them, you usually end up playing the 5th seed which is probably the 2nd best SEC / B1G team so maybe not)
Also Bama did outgain them 8.4 ypp to 6.8 ypp, so like the actual game did affect their rating too
