$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition
I am going to be starting with $25 in my Ignition Account and try to spin it up to $25,000.
I will start at 5nl since it is the lowest stake on the site and be playing Ignition Reg tables only.
I will be updating every 5k hands with my progress.
My expectation for each limit is as follows:
Expected Winrates for each limit:
5NL: 30bb/100
10NL: 25bb/100
25NL: 20bb/100
50NL: 15bb/100
100NL: 12bb/100
200NL: 10bb/100
Variance will be a decent factor in a lot of these winrates but these are just ball park numbers. Once I hit 25k I will take a 10buyin shot at 500nl! As far as moving up I'll move up whenever I feel like it, but probably after winning 30-40 buyins at the limit.
There will be no cherry picking here since you can't cherry pick a Bankroll Challenge. Wish me luck (or not) and follow along in this thread.
Maybe I've only played in soft af live games (mostly at 1/2 and 2/5) but I rarely see a "reg" thats not just 3betting JJ+ AQs+ and 4betting AA/KK lol. But I am one of those players that started out the game learning with a solver since im a nerd and now I can 100% say MDA is infinitely more useful than GTO as long as you understand some basic theory fundamentals. I was losing in 10 blitz for a while despite knowing how to x/r ob turned low pairs vs delayed cbets but couldn't figure why calling o
Yeah everyone has blind spots, identifying them is the hardest part.
And Blitz pools are hard.
To give you some perspective, I’ve played 200nl on iggy reg tables and 25nl blitz is a harder game than that one.
The most important revelation I’ve made in blitz is I have to play every single reg differently now that I have good samples on them. That includes preflop as well.
Ahhh... so mr overprobe also weakens the playback range. Gottit
MDA fo sure > GTO in the profitable sense. I just meant theoretically. MDA being essentially pool exploitation, and you don't get to understand what is exploitable without some basic understanding of GTO figures/principles first.
I can see how overplays will break the GTO mold ofc, almost to the point of oblivion. But would it be possible to teach a fresh poker novice min wage profitable play using MDA alone? I think that's an interes
Yeah it’s hard to say since a lot of this will depend on the students aptitude.
I have heard arguments from people that MDA should just be accessible to everyone, but those arguments don’t make sense to me because if everyone has access to MDA then MDA would change and the old MDA would be less effective.
It is kind of like if everyone is rich, no one is rich.
Football is on today so I'm not doing too much poker related but this topic is important imo.
The topic is Splitting Sizing's.
And my contention here is it's not even about the EV gained (as we have seen from countless sims, splitting sizing's only increases EV a negligible amount). It's about knowing why you are doing it, which will lead you to understanding the spot better than your opponents.
This is the unseen benefit of knowing why you split sizing's.
HH for the day.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($30.05) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.6% | 3Bet: 10.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.3% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 107360]
SB ($26.27) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 5519]
BB ($38.04) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 85.7% | Hands: 25]
UTG ($29.10) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 7]
HJ ($25.63) [VPIP: 26% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 33.6% | Hands: 3836]
CO ($30.80) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 13.4% | AGG: 39.7% | Flop Agg: 43.2% | Turn Agg: 42.1% | River Agg: 27.3% | 3Bet: 8.5% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 382]
Dealt to Hero: A♦ T♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.70, HERO Raises To $2.01, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $1.31
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.42 effective]
Flop ($4.37): 2♥ T♥ A♥
CO Checks, HERO Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $27.29), CO Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $28.04)
Turn ($5.87): 2♥ T♥ A♥ 7♥
CO Checks, HERO Bets $1.86 (Rem. Stack: $25.43), CO Calls $1.86 (Rem. Stack: $26.18)
River ($9.59): 2♥ T♥ A♥ 7♥ T♦
CO Checks, HERO Bets $25.43 (allin), CO Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $9.12
1. Start with the flop ---->no splitting needed! We always cbet small. But note it is not a range bet.
2. The turn is the important part to me.
When the 7♥ comes OTT you need to split sizing's, not because it will increase your EV very much but because it will increase your understanding of the game.
Here is the sim to see the sizing's we should use.
It's clear we need two sizing's. A small size and a big size. Let's see what sizing targets which part of our opponent's range.
A. B20 sizing OTT --->This sizing targets mostly gutshots and some Ax. The main target is all the non heart gutshots which now become mixed continues.
B. B75 sizing OTT--->This sizing does NOT target gutshots as they are now pure folded. Weak Ax is pure folded as well so this sizing will target strong Ax. Notice how all one ♥ hands call OTT vs this sizing pure.
I'm not going to go into river spots but in poker there are some very clear situations where you need to split sizing's. This is even more applicable at 100bb poker. There are plenty of spots where you need to jam turns or even jam flops (think JTxtt boards) and one sizing just won't cut it. It's not about gaining a miniscule amount of EV in a solver, it's about understanding the spot better than your opponent so that EV translates into much more in practice (remember people don't play like solvers).
Hope ya dont mind me sharing another hand lol, vs weak tight is this a punt play? From my data double paired boards are the best to raise river against this line and he probably never has a J here but his range is also stronger than it should be so not sure.
Hope ya dont mind me sharing another hand lol, vs weak tight is this a punt play? From my data double paired boards are the best to raise river against this line and he probably never has a J here but his range is also stronger than it should be so not sure.
I don't mind. This hand history covers a lot important talking points so the reply will be longer than usual.
I normally review hh's from flop to river but I think it will be better to go backwards here.
Your instinct to raise vs this bet sizing is actually good but you misapplied the aggression. So the first thing you need to do is look at UTGvsBB XR-B-B ranges and look at the aggregate. You have to remember that BBvsUTG is the tightest position in SRP in 6max so everything will be underbluffed as a default.
I have B30 OTR at 14weak and GTO is 20weak so we know it is underbluffed. Now we need to look at filtered data. I don't have UTGvsBB specifically but we can make some educated guesses here. In my BTNvsBB XR-B-B data the aggregate is 29 weak but on paired flops the aggregate is only 26 weak. So paired flops are an underbluffed data point in the XR-B-B line even though they are check-raised more than average (flop boards have some of the highest xr percentages in theory). Population will xr flop more than their overall frequency but give up OTT/OTR so it ultimately becomes underbluffed in this line.
Like I said earlier, your instinct to attack the small river bet was good but it was misapplied because of the following reasons:
1) Weak tight regs will underbluff this more than an average reg
2) These positions are very underbluffed and even more underbluffed when we add in the flop paired data point. Which will make the raise losing.
3) The only time we should be bluff raising vs this line is in BTNvsBB positions on neutral and overbluffed run outs.
You should also ask yourself what you are trying to accomplish with this raise, what hands are you trying to fold out ( I think your raise size is too big)? I looked this hand up in a solver to get a better grasp on the spot and your hand is solver approved but BB is folding some 8x here which I think almost never happens. I think this is one of those solver approved lines that are complete punts (there are a lot of them) in practice because of how people are playing this line.
A good HUD stat to have is xr flop percentage, once you get some good samples on people you will figure out if they are over or undercheck-raising (almost everyone under does it). I think even vs the most aggro players in the pool your bluff raise here will be a losing play since all the data points to it being severely underbluffed and I think 8x basically never folds.
I wanted to also talk about your flop play because I think it's important. One of the few universal rules in poker is that if OOP get's a donking range in theory than IP's flop play is never a range bet. On these middling paired boards (all paired boards aren't the same) BB get's a donk range.
So this means IP shouldn't be ranging flop ever. If you nodelock BB to never donking than IP will cbet less than half the time. I think checking back will be better as a default as OOP population tendencies make more mistakes in probe lines.
It's good that you want to be aggressive but it needs to be more controlled. When we are aggressive we need to attack weak ranges not strong ranges. And if you are in doubt, stick to trying to bluff (or bluff-catch) players in later positions over earlier positions.
Cool hand though, I respect the heart.
Another spot where solver will always call but we should always fold. Solver say it's an over 5bb mistake to fold.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($32.65) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.6% | 3Bet: 10.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.3% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 107406]
SB ($29.17) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 11.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 26]
BB ($34.36) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 35.7% | Hands: 797]
UTG ($25) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 14.7% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 5531]
HJ ($26.15) [VPIP: 26% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 33.8% | Hands: 3853]
CO ($30) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 34% | Flop Agg: 37.5% | Turn Agg: 35.7% | River Agg: 22.2% | 3Bet: 8.3% | 4Bet: 33.3% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 166]
Dealt to Hero: A♣ Q♣
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.62, HERO Raises To $1.81, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Raises To $5.27, HERO Calls $3.46
Hero SPR on Flop: [2.27 effective]
Flop ($10.89): A♠ K♠ Q♥
CO Bets $2.52 (Rem. Stack: $22.21), HERO Calls $2.52 (Rem. Stack: $24.86)
Turn ($15.93): A♠ K♠ Q♥ 7♥
CO Bets $3.98 (Rem. Stack: $18.23), HERO Calls $3.98 (Rem. Stack: $20.88)
River ($23.89): A♠ K♠ Q♥ 7♥ 9♠
CO Bets $18.23 (allin), HERO Folds
Spoiler
CO wins: $22.70
Unnatural Bluffs are KTs/QTs/QJs.
2 month check in since I started.
Still a small sample but I'd be happy with a 5bb winrate. I have made a ton of misplays (and these are the only ones I know about) but I've also made some good plays as well. I have the rake at a little less than 10bb/100 in this pool.
I'm also ramping up volume. My goal is 45k hands for the month of October while 2 tabling.
Eventually I would like to get a better poker setup as well and get dual monitors but that won't happen for awhile.
I've talked about this concept before but I still mess it up.
HH in question.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30) [VPIP: 24.3% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 41.8% | Hands: 2407]
SB ($43.60) [VPIP: 27.1% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 35.2% | Hands: 175]
HERO ($45.45) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.6% | 3Bet: 10.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.3% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 107838]
UTG ($90.06) [VPIP: 20.7% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 36.4% | Flop Agg: 39.6% | Turn Agg: 39.1% | River Agg: 31.8% | 3Bet: 9.9% | 4Bet: 20% | Hands: 949]
HJ ($38.04) [VPIP: 17.5% | PFR: 13.8% | AGG: 21.4% | Hands: 81]
CO ($23.97) [VPIP: 15.6% | PFR: 8.4% | AGG: 28.2% | Hands: 656]
Dealt to Hero: 5♠ 4♠
UTG Raises To $0.62, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.06, UTG Calls $2.44
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.82 effective]
Flop ($6.22): 4♦ 5♦ K♦
HERO Bets $1.15 (Rem. Stack: $41.24), UTG Calls $1.15 (Rem. Stack: $85.85)
Turn ($8.52): 4♦ 5♦ K♦ Q♣
HERO Bets $2.83 (Rem. Stack: $38.41), UTG Calls $2.83 (Rem. Stack: $83.02)
River ($14.18): 4♦ 5♦ K♦ Q♣ K♠
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $9.35 (Rem. Stack: $73.67), HERO Folds
Spoiler
UTG wins: $13.48
I missed a bluff here as solver is always betting but the more important concept to me is the sizing structure.
On certain board textures and runouts a lot of your betting range is not supposed to be all in by the river.
Take this run out for example and look at how the solver is almost never all in when it bets (ironically 54ss jams more than bets small).
So we should mostly be betting non all in to target 77-JJ with a diamond, the all in size targets AK.
I don't think early positions is a bad data point for bluffing if you're opening 2bb since their range is about as strong as BB vs BTN. They're probably bluffing river less but that's only because they're scared of your UTG range
IMO their flop XR size (almost pot) is the most important factor in this hand, and flop is just a very trivial fold
Turn size is interesting too since they might play J9/JT like this but if they went larger you can probably jam any 8x. Here I might play a very small raise trying to fold T9/77 and whatever bluffs they have
This might be a fold OTR after thinking about it. Pretty gross but I don't beat much here.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($38.12) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 34.8% | Hands: 670]
SB ($21.48) [VPIP: 23.9% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 28.8% | Hands: 351]
BB ($37.02) [VPIP: 29.2% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 44.1% | Flop Agg: 48.6% | Turn Agg: 43.7% | River Agg: 44.2% | 3Bet: 8% | Fold to 3Bet: 70.2% | 4Bet: 12.5% | Hands: 2374]
HERO ($30.15) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.3% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 108270]
HJ ($28.45) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 39.3% | AGG: 57.9% | Hands: 30]
CO ($28.96) [VPIP: 41.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 24]
Dealt to Hero: 3♦ 3♣
HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.40, BB Raises To $3.02, HERO Calls $2.52, SB Folds
Hero SPR on Flop: [4.15 effective]
Flop ($6.54): 3♥ Q♥ J♥
BB Bets $2.17 (Rem. Stack: $31.83), HERO Raises To $5.54 (Rem. Stack: $21.59), BB Calls $3.37 (Rem. Stack: $28.46)
Turn ($17.62): 3♥ Q♥ J♥ A♦
BB Checks, HERO Checks
River ($17.62): 3♥ Q♥ J♥ A♦ 5♣
BB Bets $28.46 (allin), HERO Calls $21.59 (allin)
Spoiler
BB shows: J♦ J♠
BB wins: $57.80
I'm not going to be able to do this at 200nl blitz because the pool is too small (and the money is too much to me) but I feel okay doing at 25nl blitz.
New reg in the pool.
These two are corelated tendencies. Because he he donk-xr-bet as a bluff, he is more likely to OB-OB as a bluff.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($27.88) [VPIP: 60% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 5]
SB ($30.41) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 34.5% | Hands: 208]
BB ($27.27) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 81.3% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 80% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 18.2% | Hands: 30]
UTG ($33.22) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 28.2% | Hands: 411]
HERO ($28.83) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.3% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 108466]
CO ($61.52) [VPIP: 20.9% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 140]
Dealt to Hero: 9♥ Q♥
UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [24.34 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 8♣ 4♣ 5♣
BB Bets $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $26.52), HERO Calls $0.25 (Rem. Stack: $28.08)
Turn ($1.60): 8♣ 4♣ 5♣ Q♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.20 (Rem. Stack: $26.88), BB Raises To $5.12 (Rem. Stack: $21.40), HERO Calls $3.92 (Rem. Stack: $22.96)
River ($11.84): 8♣ 4♣ 5♣ Q♦ 4♥
BB Bets $2.81 (Rem. Stack: $18.59), HERO Calls $2.81 (Rem. Stack: $20.15)
Spoiler
BB shows: J♣ 9♠
HERO wins: $16.59
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30.05) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 11]
SB ($40.97) [VPIP: 30.6% | PFR: 27.8% | AGG: 26.7% | Hands: 38]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 81.3% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 80% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 18.2% | Hands: 30]
UTG ($30.21) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 34.5% | Hands: 208]
HJ ($30) [VPIP: 21.8% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 40.4% | Hands: 779]
HERO ($35.89) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.3% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 108466]
Dealt to Hero: K♠ 3♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [22.27 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 7♣ 8♣ 9♦
BB Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($1.10): 7♣ 8♣ 9♦ K♣
BB Bets $1.20 (Rem. Stack: $23.30), HERO Calls $1.20 (Rem. Stack: $34.19)
River ($3.50): 7♣ 8♣ 9♦ K♣ J♠
BB Bets $3.82 (Rem. Stack: $19.48), HERO Calls $3.82 (Rem. Stack: $30.37)
Spoiler
BB shows: 4♠ A♣
HERO wins: $10.59
I don't mind. This hand history covers a lot important talking points so the reply will be longer than usual.
I normally review hh's from flop to river but I think it will be better to go backwards here.
Your instinct to raise vs this bet sizing is actually good but you misapplied the aggression. So the first thing you need to do is look at UTGvsBB XR-B-B ranges and look at the aggregate. You have to remember that BBvsUTG is the tightest position in SRP in 6max so everything will be
Appreciate all the insights alot, thanks man. I can't remember if I rng'd flop or just ranged I will usually rng vs better players and range vs worse players but yeah checking back honestly is really nice in these low boards vs pop as you said. I definitely have to remember not to bluff into underbluffed/strong ranges, I feel like I just monkey brain aggro into what I feel like are capped lines and bet sizes. In game I was actually expecting him to mostly fold 8x because I'd probably pure fold 8x in his position vs average reg, but I guess I was too optimistic lol cuz he called in like 10 seconds. Have to also remember other players will think very differently in different spots, trying to understand how different profiles perceive different spots its hard for me currently but working on it.
I don't think early positions is a bad data point for bluffing if you're opening 2bb since their range is about as strong as BB vs BTN. They're probably bluffing river less but that's only because they're scared of your UTG range
IMO their flop XR size (almost pot) is the most important factor in this hand, and flop is just a very trivial fold
Turn size is interesting too since they might play J9/JT like this but if they went larger you can probably jam any 8x. Here I might play a very small raise
Yeah I was thinking about folding flop in hindsight, in theory our hand mixes vs his x/r and population does over xr paired flops but vs this profile might be okay to just exploit fold, I tend to have a habit of floating wider on flops expecting to be able to outplay weaker regs in this pool but got punished here lol. I think sizing down river raise is correct in theory since they are blocking with Jx sometimes but in practice i dont think anyone takes Jx in this line so I was trying to max exploit.
I get confused on the wording of this sometimes.
The Metagame data I have has them xring vs B30 at 14% in these formations. Are you saying paired boards are check-raised less than 14%?
or check-raised less than 29%?
I assume population is always under check-raising paired boards relative theory since it is so high but are they under check-raising paired boards relative to their overall check-raising percentage as well?
I agree with that large xr size is stronger than it should be, but wasn't sure how much we should overfold. I meant over XR with respect to other board textures like DDP was asking, but yes they are probably still under XR with respect to aggregate GTO frequencies. Looking back I think agree it should be a default fold vs population with no further reads and maybe call some more robust hands like AQs/AJs with backdoors.
On paired boards they're around 16.5%, Pio is 18.5%. Frequency is only important for our c-betting strategy, once they XR only their range and future tendencies matters. I would assume it's too strong since they're supposed to flat trips a good amount, and use really weak XR bluffs
On paired boards they're around 16.5%, Pio is 18.5%. Frequency is only important for our c-betting strategy, once they XR only their range and future tendencies matters. I would assume it's too strong since they're supposed to flat trips a good amount, and use really weak XR bluffs
Thank you for the data.
That's a good point you made before about them continuing OTT too often and for too large a sizing so we really need to tighten up our continuing range on paired boards.
Would you just fold all 0EV continues on paired boards?
This hand is interesting because it gives you an insight into how people are constructing their ranges. Remember these Q high boards without BW's are always donk spots for 4BP OOP PFC.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.90) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 16.5% | AGG: 18.8% | Flop Agg: 16.7% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 50% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 16]
SB ($2.80) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 4% | AGG: 31.8% | Hands: 25]
HERO ($30.25) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 57.2% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 108971]
UTG ($31) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 33% | Hands: 1705]
HJ ($32.82) [VPIP: 17.1% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 35.3% | Hands: 214]
CO ($72.64) [VPIP: 24.2% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 31.9% | Hands: 238]
Dealt to Hero: J♥ J♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.70, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.20, BTN Raises To $6.45, HERO Calls $3.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [1.5 effective]
Flop ($13): 3♠ 8♠ Q♣
HERO Bets $3.25 (Rem. Stack: $20.55), BTN Calls $3.25 (Rem. Stack: $16.20)
Turn ($19.50): 3♠ 8♠ Q♣ T♥
HERO Bets $4.87 (Rem. Stack: $15.68), BTN Calls $4.87 (Rem. Stack: $11.33)
River ($29.24): 3♠ 8♠ Q♣ T♥ 7♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $11.33 (allin), HERO Calls $11.33 (Rem. Stack: $4.35)
Spoiler
BTN shows: A♠ K♦
HERO wins: $49.31
Digging more into turn play on XR flop spots and this one is pretty cool. You go mostly small OTT as BB but some of your range should go huge. Even AKs is a 0EV call vs the huge size!
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($58.57) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 33% | Hands: 2013]
SB ($47.46) [VPIP: 38.8% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 37% | Hands: 50]
BB ($41.34) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 33.6% | Flop Agg: 38.1% | Turn Agg: 30.7% | 3Bet: 10% | 4Bet: 17.1% | Cold Call: 7.6% | Hands: 1019]
UTG ($15.46) [VPIP: 22.2% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 27.9% | Hands: 139]
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.6% | Flop Agg: 41.6% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | 3Bet: 10.4% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 110122]
CO ($21.07) [VPIP: 12.5% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 8]
Dealt to Hero: 9♠ 9♥
UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [26.82 effective]
Flop ($1.10): A♥ 7♠ A♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.27 (Rem. Stack: $29.23), BB Raises To $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $39.34), HERO Calls $1.23 (Rem. Stack: $28)
Turn ($4.10): A♥ 7♠ A♣ 3♠
BB ?
Digging more into turn play on XR flop spots and this one is pretty cool. You go mostly small OTT as BB but some of your range should go huge. Even AKs is a 0EV call vs the huge size!
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($58.57) [VPIP: 22.8% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 33% | Hands: 2013]
SB ($47.46) [VPIP: 38.8% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 37% | Hands: 50]
BB ($41.34)
Something I noticed about these AAx boards while studying is that in many nodes (srp/3bet both ip and oop) much of the turn betting range prefers to go small whether its xr or just B-B since pfr only really has an advantage in the middling equity region while both players have a ton of nutted hands so block is the preferred size.
Something I noticed about these AAx boards while studying is that in many nodes (srp/3bet both ip and oop) much of the turn betting range prefers to go small whether its xr or just B-B since pfr only really has an advantage in the middling equity region while both players have a ton of nutted hands so block is the preferred size.
Yeah that makes a lot of sense after looking at it. In my hand we are targeting hands like my 99 with the block bet size.
I was going over some other spots as well and found something that is counter intuitive but I wanted to make sure I was thinking about it correctly. I reached out to tombos again and asked if what I was seeing was true and he confirmed it.
BB has a higher XR frequency vs UTG cbets than vs BTN cbets, even though population is doing the opposite.
Here are the flop aggregated reports for BBvsUTG vs B33 . XR 14.5% overall in theory
And the flop aggregated reports for BBvsBTN vs B33. XR 13.9% overall in theory.
I thought that was pretty interesting because I'm assuming most people would think you XR more vs wider preflop ranges. I know I did before looking at this.
Its 0.6% difference, thats nothing
I checked the reports in the 100bb MTT sims and interestingly you get the same trend.
BB XR 13.9% vs BTN
BB XR 14.6% vs UTG
