5/5 Call or raise my draw in this 3b pot?
We're playing four handed, because the majority of the table went for a break at the same time.
SB (800): Just sat down. Friendly guy that likes action. He wants to see a lot of flops and be aggressive. Has zero equity bluffs in his repertoire, but will not go crazy when others have shown interest. In this hand, I mostly consider his call to be dead money on the flop. He seems to have lost interest after the cbet.
BB (covers, ~1100 effectively): annoying older guy, pretty tight but can be very aggressive. Undoubtedly unknown to SB, but I have seen him be aggressive (like calling a raise pre-flop with KQ and then suddenly raise the turn or river on a K high flop, where most people would just call down). I've also seen him do some weird spewing occasionally. Not often enough to really wanna factor it in here though.
OTH
UTG/CO folds and I open on the BTN to 20 with KdQd
SB calls, BB squeezes to 80, I call and SB calls as well
Flop (3way, 240) Td 6d 3s
SB checks, BB bets 160
Hero on the button to act next with 980 left…
At this point I mostly put him on (99/)JJ+, maybe TT, probably some AK/AQ (not sure if it's all of it), but I don't think he'll be much wider than this. I could be wrong, he could have more suited broadway hands, maybe because we're four handed… At the moment I didn't think so, but who knows. I do think he's the kind of old school player who always just cbets big in 3bet pots, certainly when he has it, but it's not unlikely that this is just his standard sizing which he uses with missed overcards as well.
So, one of my leaks is that I'm not aggressive enough, even more so in 3bet pots. I would mostly default to calling the flop here in position, when we're deeper than say 100-150 blinds. However, I recently played a couple of very similar hands where I called a smallish cbet on the flop (this is not a smallish cbet obv) and had to fold to a potsized shove (or overbet) on a blank turn, and I was getting sick of that scenario. Admittedly, those villains were more aggressive, with more bluff shoves in their range than this guy, so in hindsight I just shouldn’t have let that happen. In this case though, I just don’t know…
Are we going for it here? Obviously we're not raise/folding, but I was unsure about our sizing if we do decide to raise. Or is calling (and just folding the turn unimproved) actually a perfectly reasonable option? Are we doing something else with a hand like A4dd?
Oh, the fact that I don't like this guy and wanted to distress him may well have played a role here. It might have obscured my thinking at the time and/or now…
If we are sure that this sizing is heavy towards value—and that we have no fold equity on a jam—it’s possible we should fold.
Even if we think Villain stacks off on a diamond, there are 9 diamonds in the deck and our stack odds are 6:1 or close to it. Do we have the discipline to fold to an overbet jam from Villain on a K, Q,
A or J? Do we think Villain can be habe nut flush draws? The flop call is so close that these things matter.
the flop call (if you believe op that sb is folding) is worth like 30bb lol
I know GTO usually recommends small flop bets, but I don't see how a 2/3 flop bet is some big mistake that can be exploited. However, shoving does exploit it to some extent. If he puts in a big bet, maybe with ace high, and folds to your draw, that is a good result.
this isn't really what exploitation means
as an exxagerated hypothetical. imagine he has air 10% of the time and a hand he's bet/calling 90% of the time. are you exploiting by him shoving a fairly weak draw if he happens to have air this particular time?
To everyone that says call: So there's actually nothing wrong with folding the turn unimproved here? Because I felt like a pushover after doing that a couple of times...
Or are we only calling flop and folding turn to a guy whom we expect to always have an overpair if he bets/shoves the turn? And when we face someone who's laggier and more bluffy, we do raise the flop? Because we simply can't do anything if he barrels turn big, right? I mean, we have king high. Even if he's wide, we'd have to fo
really though. most of the input in this thread is useless. go to gtow, use free solve on the hand. worry less that you start 200bb deep and take a look at bb vs btn as the spr will end up very similar to your hand and look at how button approaches a cbet. think in terms of ranges, if he bets the turn so much of the time so big that you have fold your flush draw, that's great for other parts of your range. again it's tricker bc its multiway so mdf gets split between u and sb (what this means in practice is you don't need to defend the bottom half of defends), but id just look at how solver plays range and which hands its raising vs calling and what its doing on some different turn types - brick, diamond, Ace, Queen, King, Jack, and Ten vs both a check and a bet and go from there.
everyone in the thread just seems absolutely terrified of playing later streets
I think we are assuming because he 3! and cbet 2/3 pot, he has an overpair or set. He could have 3! light and have a big ace and is representing an overpair.
Plus it isn't a disguised hand like a double gutshot. If you flat call and bet when the flush hits, you may not get called or may not get all the money in. If you shove on the flop, it could be a draw, but it isn't as face up.
worry about making the most +ev decision at every point not about not being a push over. if you think he has an overpair what do you think raising / getting it in on the flop does except commit yourself with 37% or whatever equity?
I thought that at least AK/AQ was possible too. If I'm certain he has an overpair, I don't want to raise. I wasn’t that certain though.
But I do agree with your first sentence. Because of those earlier hands I think I was preoccupied with having to fold the turn unimproved again if I just call, not thinking enough about other possible scenarios, such as me actually hitting or him slowing down on the turn or betting small or whatever.
