Would you bet this river (with TPTK vs. 5 opponents)?
The game is $6/$12, 9-handed. One villain in this hand normally plays $20/$40. I've played with him a few times, and he's aggressive and tricky; he's also an excellent hand reader. A couple of orbits ago, I'm pretty sure he bought the pot when he check-raised the turn on a board of K4K8—because he knew that the button, who was now taking a stab at the pot, didn't have a King.
In this hand, I'm on the button with AKo. There are 5 limps. I raise because [this forum]. SB folds, everyone else calls.
Seven players see a flop of AJ3 rainbow. It checks to me, and I bet. Only one opponent folds; everyone else calls, including the tricky villain in MP. I assume there's at least one worse Ace out there, and maybe a few gut-shot straight draws (QT, 54, etc.).
The turn is the 8 of diamonds, bringing a backdoor flush draw. This feels like a safe card. If I was ahead on the flop, I'm likely still ahead. It checks to me, and I bet. Everyone still in the hand calls.
At this point I can probably eliminate sets and AJ or A8 from my opponents' holdings, as I think these hands would've check-raised by now.
The river is a non-diamond Queen, for a final board of AJ38Q. Two straights got there (KT and T9). AQ got there, as did QJ. Everyone checks to me again. Do I check back or go for thin value against 5 opponents?
Against 1 or 2 opponents, I think this is an automatic bet for value. Against 3 or more, I'm not sure. At some point I have to start worrying about someone having some random two pair that they're scared to bet in case I have top-two or a set. And I have to worry about the tricky villain, who might be sandbagging with a straight or might read me for exactly the hand I have and decide to check-raise the river with AT, A9, or even QT.
Let's say I bet and get check-raised by someone other than the tricky villain. I'm never good here, am I? Am I still forced to call for the size of the pot (19 big bets)?
Let's say I bet and get check-raised by the tricky villain. I'm pretty much forced to call him because I know he could be making a move. But what if he check-raises and a player between us cold-calls two bets—then what do I do?
It feels like betting could lead to some tricky spots—or am I seeing monsters under the bed?
11 Replies
When I have time I want to do a combo exercise with Flopzilla. Can you give me your estimated limping ranges for each villain and your estimated calling range for the BB? I'm not sure when I'll get to it but I think it will be fun to analyze.
Fire away
Against a brick river I probably bet, but 5 way with that river, I put my dress on and check behind.
When I have time I want to do a combo exercise with Flopzilla. Can you give me your estimated limping ranges for each villain and your estimated calling range for the BB? I'm not sure when I'll get to it but I think it will be fun to analyze.
I'm not sure if you're being facetious. When 7 or more players see the flop, ranges are very wide. This is a game where I regularly see off-suit trash at showdown: K3, J5, T2, etc. Many players will play any ace, any face card (singular), any two suited cards, and any two cards that can make a straight. I also see players miss the flop completely—no pair, no draw—and still call a bet, especially if the pot is fairly large. Or they'll continue to the river with bottom pair or an underpair to the board. There are a handful of tighter regs in this player pool, but none of them is at this table.
There's a woman in middle position who doesn't always look at her cards before calling preflop—and she announces this to the rest of us. She is a wealthy business owner who regularly bets far larger sums on the dark side, as she calls it (California table games), so I assume these stakes are nickels and dimes to her. Her range is top 90% of hands. Other players probably average ~top 65% of hands and do not seem positionally aware (if they want to see a flop with 75o, it doesn't matter if they're UTG; they'll call). Getting 13-1, the BB is likely to defend with ATC.
Against a brick river I probably bet, but 5 way with that river, I put my dress on and check behind.
On a board of AJ38, the only card that doesn't make a straight possible is a 6. An Ace is a good card for me, obviously. A King might be good, or it might give someone Broadway. Any other pair, and I'd have to worry about someone making trips.
If we assume that anyone with any pair will call and anyone with no pair will fold:
For a range of any pair, any 2 suited, any ace, any 2 broadways and any offsuit connectors and 1-gappers, there are 321 combos that you beat or tie that will call you and 103 that beat you that will call or raise.
Add any king or queen to that range and those numbers become 391 and 117.
For a 100% range the numbers become 528 and 137.
So for simplicity let's say there's a 25% chance that each indiviual drew out on you. 75%x75%x75%x75% = 31.6% chance nobody drew out on you so a 68.4% you got drawn out on.
this spot sucks and i dont think anyone can give you a good answer. you're going to feel dumb if you have the best hand and dont bet and you're going to feel dumb if you bet and get CR'd.
So for simplicity let's say there's a 25% chance that each individual drew out on you. 75%x75%x75%x75% = 31.6% chance nobody drew out on you so a 68.4% you got drawn out on.
There were actually 5 opponents (7 players saw the flop, 6 continued), so we need to calculate 75%^5^ not 75%^4^. That gives us a 23.7% chance that I'm still good by the river.
In the moment my gut sense was that I was unlikely to have the best hand more than 20% of the time. So I checked behind and immediately tabled my hand. I was good. One player showed QT for a missed gut-shot straight draw. No one else showed.
this spot sucks and i dont think anyone can give you a good answer. you're going to feel dumb if you have the best hand and dont bet and you're going to feel dumb if you bet and get CR'd.
This makes sense—except I didn't feel dumb when the dealer pushed me a pot of almost $200. I felt relief that no one had a weak two-pair that they were too scared to bet, or a rivered straight that that they hoped to check-raise with.
Upon reflection I think this is a mandatory bet against 1 or 2 opponents, a cautious check back against 4 or 5, and 3 opponents would be more of a judgment call based on the villains' tendencies (are they more tricky or sticky, and what tells do I pick up on in the moment).
I probably check back against 5 opponents but I am probably too gun-shy in these sorts of spots.
I would chicken out on betting and say “alright, pot’s big enough”. Just keeping it real here lol
