AQo in Unraked Home Game vs. Maniac
1/2 Unraked Home Game. Six handed. Standard open is 10. 3bet is 3x.
V (1,200) is a maniac who just earned plus $200,000 surveying a property in a desirable neighborhood. When I played tournaments with him twenty years ago, he won by barreling and rebuying. Now, he has a higher income and plays cash the same. This losing strategy cost him $3,000 by the end of the night.
V is playing more than half his hands, mostly open-raising or 3betting. Tonight, in a previous hand, V opened to 10, H 3bet to 30 with AhKd, V 4bets to 90, H 5bet all to 240, V called with As7s. V is nonetheless excellent at math. He is 3betting his too many bluffs exactly 3x, maybe once 3.5x. He has not yet 3bet 5x.
Hero (345) has a tight-passive image to V, who wants to gamble.
OTTH
Hero opens to 10 with AQo. V raises to 50. Hero?
Positions?
I'd be a bit concerned by the larger than average 3-bet, but not folding AQ vs a maniac who opens/4-bet/calls shove with A7s. Many players will make these big 3-bets with medium PPs, though I don't know if V fits that profile. Assuming he does though, how does he play when overs flop? If he still barrels away, I might call and c/c down. If that shuts him down, I might 4-bet, or even fold if I don't have plenty of rebuy money with me, as the opportunity cost of losing a flip might be worse than the lost EV of the fold.
Positions?
I'm guessing that you believe his 5x raise is a sizing tell?
How does he play post-flop? Is he c-betting big at a high frequency, and barrelling off, even against short stacks?
I think we can probably fold AQo to most 3B's from most V's. We might make an exception if V is LAG and / or we're starting deeper.
In this instance, I guess it's close, but I still think we can fold here. I'd probably continue with AK and PP's down to JJ, maybe down to TT. Probably just jamming with those hands, if V wants to gamble. Don't really want to try to play a multi-street game against this guy, at this stack depth.
Maybe we can call if he's in the blinds and we'll have position post flop.
Six-handed Hero opens LJ to 10. HJ folds. V in CO raises to 50. BTN and blinds fold. Hero?
Feels like an easy jam against a mainiac, especially OOP, and with blockers to hands that crush us (AA, QQ, AK), and with a villain who wants to gamble so he may call us off with AJ, AT. What am I missing?
Think I would call here. I don’t think there is much fold equity if we jam when he takes this big sizing. He clearly can have worse hands than AQ in range, but he has lots of hands that we are way behind too.
Even if you miss, you should be able to check/call at least one street to realize some more of your equity. If you hit, he is likely to bluff his worse hands. If you hit and he still has you beat, it’s clearly a cooler.
Guys who usually never 3bet getting annoyed by heros aggression and 3bet huge with TT/JJ ... sure.
These players understand the nuts, and understand the bottom parts of their range that wants to call, but don't understand the middle parts.
We still aren't doing great with AQ, but it's w/e.
Guys playing too wide and over 3bet/4betting having open/4bet A7s to 3x3bet, then decides to bomb it with JJ ... nah.
Esp. people who play this aggressive don't really go nuts with the middle parts of their range because the middle is so big.
They see AA/KK and are like "lol, let's pile money in because I have a maniac image"
Just fold.
Like, sure people can do random/weird things ... maybe he has 33 and assumes it's in front of your AK or whatever, but doesn't mind a fold. But I'd just let him have the $10 for this hand. Might even show the AQo and say NH.
If we don't fold I prefer shoving over calling, at least we see all the cards. Any arguments we'll outplay him OOP in a 3 SPR pot where he has the betting lead PF can eat: Sure, we'll outplay him by folding pre.
Feels like an easy jam against a mainiac, especially OOP, and with blockers to hands that crush us (AA, QQ, AK), and with a villain who wants to gamble so he may call us off with AJ, AT. What am I missing?
One thing I forgot to mention is that I'm not really indexing on the bet size. It could be weaker or stronger or just a "I'll throw out a different sizing amount to throw them off"; we just don't know, and so I'd be cautious of deviating too much from what we'd do against a mainiac.
I agree with the posters who are saying to fold to the 3bet. It's a high variance spot even though we're probably ahead of his range, but he doesn't fold and instead he 4bets most of his range which means we would most likely have to gii pre and close our eyes.
I agree with the posters who are saying to fold to the 3bet. It's a high variance spot even though we're probably ahead of his range, but he doesn't fold and instead he 4bets most of his range which means we would most likely have to gii pre and close our eyes.
I usually snicker at the "Let's wait for a better spot" crowd, especially since every hand with him has the potential to be "high variance." However, this is a 6-handed game with a bad LAG who doesn't seem like the type to quit a fun game. I'm fine folding here and paying closer attention to his raise sizes on future hands.
Jacks is a ship here without even thinking about it so just ship AQ too.
I guess I don’t dislike folding, even though I didn’t mention it in my post.
The nice thing about players taking ridiculous sizings (like 5x IP) is that they just allow you to fold so much.
If we’re not stacking off with AQ then we shouldn’t open it with maniac 3b us so often.
We should jam vs this guy, we are way ahead of his range and he will call with worse.
yeah idk i dont think a bet sizing tell that u have no info on is enough to not go all in
Results
Hero folded. V mucked.
I thought the 5x bet size could be a tell. Because we're playing just 1/2, V wants to push the 3bet size higher to win his money back from SB, whose had 3,000. If he had 3bet to 30, I would have called the twenty and evaluated the flop. No use calling 50 oop to win 60 . To a jam, I think V calls some AJ, but nothing worse. To a jam, he calls only pairs, AK-AQ, ATs-AJs, maybe KQs. Jamming could well be e.V. positive. But you're basically flipping, and the variance is huge.
Results
Hero folded. V mucked.
I thought the 5x bet size could be a tell. Because we're playing just 1/2, V wants to push the 3bet size higher to win his money back from SB, whose had 3,000. If he had 3bet to 30, I would have called the twenty and evaluated the flop. No use calling 50 oop to win 60 . To a jam, I think V calls some AJ, but nothing worse. To a jam, he calls only pairs, AK-AQ, ATs-AJs, maybe KQs. Jamming could well be e.V. positive. But you're basically flipping, and the variance is
I wouldn't call even if it was 30, I would either 3b or fold in general but vs him who probably 4bets I would still fold to 30, but that just me of course (I'm more conservative like that; it's jus my style).
Results
Hero folded. V mucked.
I thought the 5x bet size could be a tell. Because we're playing just 1/2, V wants to push the 3bet size higher to win his money back from SB, whose had 3,000. If he had 3bet to 30, I would have called the twenty and evaluated the flop. No use calling 50 oop to win 60 . To a jam, I think V calls some AJ, but nothing worse. To a jam, he calls only pairs, AK-AQ, ATs-AJs, maybe KQs. Jamming could well be e.V. positive. But you're basically flipping, and the variance is
I guess I was assuming he was rarely calling an open raise, and 3 betting top 20%, and calling a 4 bet with half of that range (i.e. his top 10% of hands, which would include AJo or A9s), and I've certainly seen mainiacs more agressive than this.
You're implying a bit tighter.
Results
Hero folded. V mucked.
I thought the 5x bet size could be a tell. Because we're playing just 1/2, V wants to push the 3bet size higher to win his money back from SB, whose had 3,000. If he had 3bet to 30, I would have called the twenty and evaluated the flop. No use calling 50 oop to win 60 . To a jam, I think V calls some AJ, but nothing worse. To a jam, he calls only pairs, AK-AQ, ATs-AJs, maybe KQs. Jamming could well be e.V. positive. But you're basically flipping, and the variance is
Increasing variance against a maniac is usually a good idea. If you can get into a flip for stacks you should take it.
I'd probably continue with AK and PP's down to JJ, maybe down to TT. Probably just jamming with those hands, if V wants to gamble.
So I'm thinking poker players fold this hand and professional gamblers shove. It depends on the variance you can withstand.
The game was unfamiliar. In this unraked game, my friend who plays 5/10 pro bought 1,500 to match stacks, lost 500, and wanted to end early and go to the casino. Only one player wanted to gamble with V. That player took home 3K. This was one of the only hands I thought I played incorrectly, and now I see I played it fine. I took home 50 dollars. I don't get it.
i mean he 4b called a7ss lol
Results
Hero folded. V mucked.
I thought the 5x bet size could be a tell. Because we're playing just 1/2, V wants to push the 3bet size higher to win his money back from SB, whose had 3,000. If he had 3bet to 30, I would have called the twenty and evaluated the flop. No use calling 50 oop to win 60 . To a jam, I think V calls some AJ, but nothing worse. To a jam, he calls only pairs, AK-AQ, ATs-AJs, maybe KQs. Jamming could well be e.V. positive. But you're basically flipping, and the variance is
I'm not beating you up for omitting critical info from your OP, because I make the same mistake a lot. Just saying that knowing more about the table dynamic, specifically involving SB here, would add context that might change the advice you get.
Regarding the ongoing debate about flipping for stacks with maniacs...
My thinking here is that his raise size may be a tell. He may see that you're short stacked, so maybe he doesn't mind getting it in with you regardless of his hand strength, but the opportunity cost of going broke flipping for stacks in a good game is high, so the value of getting it in with way the best of it goes up a lot.
I also think we can't necessarily assume that he's always getting it in bad because we saw him get it in bad once before, and he can always wake up with a real hand. I would consider the positions and configuration, and any other tendencies we've seen from him when he starts blasting off.
Lastly, and this may be logically or theoretically flawed thinking, but if we're playing six handed, there are four other opponents who can gamble with this V, if he wants to get stacks in pre on every hand. Not that you said that about him, just saying that I don't think we necessarily need to defend with quite as wide a range just because he's gambly, when there are four other people to share that burden.
When we open and V 3B's from two seats to our left, every opponent left to act has to worry we might 4B if they call. They're likely to only continue with stronger ranges, and we're going to end up in a lot of spots where action folds back around to us. We're going to bleed chips if we're constantly defending too wide.