BvB flopped TP2K IP, passive line
10NL. No stats on villain. Should I 3bet (or fold) preflop? On the flop and turn I was thinking Villain has overcards or a worse Tx often enough to call but not to raise. I'm not loving the third barrel but is a crying call OK? What's a better line here, if any?
BTN: 150.5 BB
SB: 106.9 BB
Hero (BB): 198 BB
UTG: 110.9 BB
MP: 103.9 BB
CO: 300.3 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♠ K♦
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB
Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) T♥ 5♣ 8♦
SB bets 2.9 BB, Hero calls 2.9 BB
Turn: (11.8 BB, 2 players) 8♠
SB bets 5.7 BB, Hero calls 5.7 BB
River: (23.2 BB, 2 players) 7♠
SB bets 11.1 BB, Hero calls 11.1 BB
This is played fine.
It's a smiling call.
Definitely not crying on the river. Easy spot.
I disagree with most of the other posts - this is a bluffcatcher in theory, and against many pools this is a very easy fold. Flop/Turn are slam dunk calls but on river easy fold with no reads IMO.
The pools I play in I would fold this against a random player and only call against Vs that I know overbluff.
I disagree with most of the other posts - this is a bluffcatcher in theory, and against many pools this is a very easy fold. Flop/Turn are slam dunk calls but on river easy fold with no reads IMO.
The pools I play in I would fold this against a random player and only call against Vs that I know overbluff.
Villain is half potting, it's not like we're facing a b/ob/shove. What are you calling here?
I disagree with most of the other posts - this is a bluffcatcher in theory, and against many pools this is a very easy fold. Flop/Turn are slam dunk calls but on river easy fold with no reads IMO.
The pools I play in I would fold this against a random player and only call against Vs that I know overbluff.
Definitely agree that this is an underbluffed spot, but we are near the top of our range and getting great odds in a spot where ranges are wide to begin with.
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I think it's close so w/e
Vs a fish defo call, vs reg or badreg (note b50 on the flop) fold
Weak in this data is low pair or air. You need to compare it to GTO so B100 = 2 value bet for 1 bluff or around 33 weak.
It show's that they are overbluffing here and also overfolding. So calling will be profitable but raising will be more profitable.
Weak in this data is low pair or air. You need to compare it to GTO so B100 = 2 value bet for 1 bluff or around 33 weak.
It show's that they are overbluffing here and also overfolding. So calling will be profitable but raising will be more profitable.
Interesting, thanks. I'm guessing this is just this line in general from these positions and it's not taking into account the board?
Interesting, thanks. I'm guessing this is just this line in general from these positions and it's not taking into account the board?
Yeah it doesn’t have board texture it’s just overall. But this board and runout is pretty neutral and doesn’t have any bad data points so I would raise river. Don’t think calling is bad though just don’t fold.
Yeah it doesn’t have board texture it’s just overall. But this board and runout is pretty neutral and doesn’t have any bad data points so I would raise river. Don’t think calling is bad though just don’t fold.
So correct me if i'm wrong... So roughly 26% of the time villain will be bluffing, and we can assume some % of the time he will be value betting a worse hand, like QT for example? So that would make the call more than just marginal, right?
So correct me if i'm wrong... So roughly 26% of the time villain will be bluffing, and we can assume some % of the time he will be value betting a worse hand, like QT for example? So that would make the call more than just marginal, right?
Yeah if he bets 50% OTR he is supposed to be 25 weak so we know calling is profitable. Also add in the fact in that you will split with some value/beat some value hands and folding is out of the question.
Hmm. Raising a static board still seems very borderline to me (per player type). 1% weaker vs gto in the aggregate could easily be board/player noise.
Plus isn't b50 on the flop by SB significantly (i.e. >gto) stronger?
So on this runout, if BB has more strength then I think it somewhat significant thaey b50 3x. Bluffing with those sizes doesn't make much sense.
Obviously fish can and will do anything so plenty of QT/JT etc in their range. That's why I'd advocate call vs fish. Raising vs regs makes sense if you think we can scare them off AT... but that's not a lot of combos. Also think there's a reasonable chance this is classic bad passive reg play and our EV is better gained from calling best BCs per odds. Vs those types raising seems pointless and only running into better hands.
I've talked myself into calling.
EDIT: removed for being wrong
Hmm. Raising a static board still seems very borderline to me (per player type). 1% weaker vs gto in the aggregate could easily be board/player noise.
Plus isn't b50 on the flop by SB significantly (i.e. >gto) stronger?
So on this runout, if BB has more strength then I think it somewhat significant thaey b50 3x. Bluffing with those sizes doesn't make much sense.
Obviously fish can and will do anything so plenty of QT/JT etc in their range. That's why I'd advocate call vs fish. Raising vs regs ma
The data I showed was B50 OTF. B30 OTF is even more overbluffed/overfolded.
But now that I think about it some more and look at paired data, you get an interesting paradox. You actually get more bluffs on paired rivers (don't have paired turns in my data) but less folding vs a raise compared to the aggregate. So maybe the discrepancy is less on the turn/river paired boards between calling and raising.
This data is all 50nl-1k nl so I'm assuming an unknown 10nl reg overfolds more than this which goes back to raising river.
The important point for me is you just can't fold and raising will usually outperform calling as a default but it's possible this runout is an exception.
I'd just be surprised if anyone at 10nl folds JJ+ here though I have no concrete data.
Interesting discussion guys, thanks. I guess on balance I'm happy with how I played it. Result in case of interest:
Of course, but that's an educated position. Vast majority of 10nl pool, with respect, not educated... If you knew for certain sb had JJ here you still push?
Oh because you are afraid he might be a fish? Yes jamming vs a fish would be really bad.
But he has a full stack and fish are prone to limping so it's more likely he is a reg to me.
Yes if he showed me his hand I would jam as I think it is more likely he is a reg based on the above.
Hillariously my b50 solve calls most JJ (blockers i guess) and folds QQ-AA and even some A8.
I would argue most regs at 10nl are still fish in the gto sense, and almost all overcalling but who knows. I can see regs finding folds sure
Raising the river with this hand when you already have a massively winning call seems horrible. SB has to fold an astronomical amount and you’re almost never winning when called.