Should I call this river probe raise?
Hi all,
Had this hand at my local $2/$5 game yesterday. Villain (UTG) - a solid winning reg - opens to $20 off an $1100 effective stack. There are two callers before it gets to hero, who calls in the BB with A♠9♠
FLOP ($72)
6♠3♠3♦
Hero checks, villain bets $60, two folds, hero calls.
TURN ($190)
6♠3♠3♦7♥
Hero checks, villain snap checks back.
RIVER ($190)
6♠3♠3♦7♥T♠
Hero miscalculates pot size and bets $85 (usually I would usually go larger here, to $130 or so). Villain raises to $300. Hero...?
~98. u dont have that in reality but i think you have 90+
***REVEAL***
I tanked and tanked and tanked and ... folded. And never found out what she had. Unsure whether or not it was the right decision; I think it's pretty close. It's definitely a call some of the time/against certain player types (of course) and certainly at equilibrium. But of course equilibrium finds a lot more bluffs here for villain than I believe is realistic in low stakes games.
start offering people 20$ to show their hand when u hero fold in these spots lol
It doesn't matter what she hadm with the info at hand folding was fine. If this was 2007 maybe I woulda called but not in 2024 unless she's been known to bluff post flop like that.
Seems like a pretty straightforward call.
What do you think her range of value hands and bluffs looks like with the river raise here?
Lower flushes, straights, trips, maybe TP/2P, maybe some more creative stuff.
Your line and donk size look bluffy, or at least not very nutted. I'd be raising all my flushes here, and might raise straights, if I got here with 98s.
Lower flushes, straights, trips, maybe TP/2P, maybe some more creative stuff.
Your line and donk size look bluffy, or at least not very nutted. I'd be raising all my flushes here, and might raise straights, if I got here with 98s.
How can villain get to the river with those hands? They have raised UTG in a full ring game, bet the flop into three players, checked back the turn heads up and then raised facing a river probe, and in theory they should be expecting to get called by a worse hand (or there is no point reraising for value, as I'm sure you know). Also, what exact combos do you think they balance with as bluffs?
UTG can only reasonably get to the river with KsQs/Ks/Js as flushes that might consider raising. In order to have a straight they would have needed to bet 98s into three players on a 633 board (very unlikely). They also have almost no 6x in their range, so trips is ruled out (and would trips check back the turn?) In order to have top pair she would have needed to bet Tx into three players; there are almost no combos that do that. KT/QT/JT of spades might cbet multiway, but those hands are ruled out once the T♠ comes on the river. And there are very few two pair combos that UTG can have in their range. I have a very hard time believing that she is raising top pair for value on this river; I believe even overpairs are just meant to call here when the flush completes. This is the problem; there are very few value hands that are worse than my hand that can consider raising this river for value. Not only that, but there are very few bluff combos. Perhaps the only ones that come to mind are 99 and 88 with a spade, but these are kind of counter-intuitive in that most players are just bluff-catching with these hands on the river, rather than using them as bluffs. And I find it difficult to believe UTG can figure out that those hands are at the bottom of their range in the hand as played (they made quick decisions) - but it's not impossible. When you look at the ranges, there are actually very few other hands that UTG has in their range to use as bluffs that play the way that this hand was played - and it also requires UTG to check back the turn with overpairs, which many players simply don't do.
My river bet is a probe, not a donk. I don't agree that it looks bluffy, on the contrary I would say it looks like thin value for the most part (but with some bluffs included too). I got the river size wrong and that certainly messed things up a bit.
So you're raising flushes here? You don't fire a second barrel with them on the turn?
It would actually be cool/useful (if you have the time/can be bothered) if you could give a list of the hand categories that you would play this way UTG. I.e. the range of hands you a) open in a full ring game b) cbet into three players c) check back turn d) raise river facing a bet.
Bruh. You do this every thread. You ask, we answer, you argue.
I give up. Do whatever the f**k you want.
Bruh. You do this every thread. You ask, we answer, you argue.
I give up. Do whatever the f**k you want.
??
They are just honest questions and not meant to be critical, I'm trying to analyse/understand the hand and the ranges in play etc.
Maybe you can just say which hands you cbet as UTG into 3 players on this board?
