boatwreck

Bet river again for like 1/3 you want a size that gets calls form Ax maybe even Jx and still induces a raise from flush. I would pay this one off JJ might raise turn TT probably fold vs turn bet and he can even jam weaker for value.

Why x river?

Fancy play syndrome, I just assumed out of nowhere it was likely one of those guys had a flush and I could x/r.

Calll

Calllllllllllll

Your river raise isn't that big. It's 75% pot.

I guess fold unless you know unless you know MP is suicidal.

I don't think we can fold because fish love flushes and often get overly excited when they hit. Source: used to be one. (some say he still is...0_0 )

And un-mathed conjecture but when we XR and nuke the spr if we don't call off all boats suspect the EV of that XR plummets dramatically.

There’s no indication that MP is a fish to begin with, and you have a bluffcatcher in a spot where no sane person bluffs. If you want to call someone a fish for opening 2.5x that’s a pretty dangerous assumption.

Well.. tis 10nl. OP being an exception in that environment

I'm not saying he's bluffing; I'm saying fish, badregs and basically pool will overvalue flushes and frankly, all sorts of hands.

It's also a runout where the A♣ and K♣ flushes are still very much in MP range, so i'm struggling to see how we can.. what? Only call with AT/AJ? That seems overtight in a pool full of inelastic and misapplied range comp, and esp where all the action is otr.

My fault, I should have included the information in the first post: MP plays VPIP 26 PFR 21 and is aware of positions, he opens tighter from early ones. CO is a fish, but I think in this hand their purpose is to provide dead money anyway.

Thanks, but if I was such an exception I'd play higher stakes...

Yes maybe they are shoving their nut flushes here, because what full house can I really have? I will squeeze AA & JJ always and I would never bet TT on the turn.

AA and JJ make a lot of sense for them too, but that are 4 combos, while he has 9 combos of nut flushes.

If I'm not mistaken I need 25% equity to make the call, even if he jams nut flush only a fraction of the time, let's say 2 combos only, this becomes a call.

So, I don't know, I still think it's a bit close.

Anyway, thanks for the answers!

Or you can just not call anything because people don't play flushes this way, and it's probably just some mix of TT/JJ/AA/33. Moby Dick might not even play a flush this way, so idk why you want to assume that the population will show up with worse hands than A3 enough for this to be a call. Calling is going to be somewhere between 0EV and a 100% loss.

Saying nobody plays flushes this way is absurd because I can tell you for a fact I used to.

1 > 0

Tf?

This hand is old so don't judge hero but that's kinda my point. Up to a certain level of nut awareness, and esp on complicated runouts, most weaker/micro players will overplay all kinds of unexpected ****

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 229 BB
SB: 151.8 BB
BB: 99.6 BB
UTG: 115.8 BB
MP: 254.2 BB
CO: 100.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♠ Q♠

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 5♠ 8♠ 8♣
BB checks, UTG bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB, fold

Turn: (23.4 BB, 2 players) 5♥
UTG bets 14 BB, Hero raises to 35 BB, UTG calls 21 BB

River: (93.4 BB, 2 players) 4♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 67.2 BB, UTG raises to 70.8 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 3.6 BB

UTG shows A♥ A♦ (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
(Pre 80%, Flop 68%, Turn 82%)
Hero shows 9♠ Q♠ (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 20%, Flop 32%, Turn 18%)
Hero wins 225.2 BB

Taking down a nice 100bb otr Vs a flush:

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 216.4 BB
SB: 115.6 BB
BB: 103.8 BB
Hero (UTG): 125.4 BB
MP: 153.4 BB
CO: 240.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♠ A♥

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 2♣ K♣ A♦
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (7.4 BB, 2 players) T♣
Hero bets 4.6 BB, CO calls 4.6 BB

River: (16.6 BB, 2 players) T♠
Hero bets 25 BB, CO raises to 59 BB, Hero raises to 117.8 BB and is all-in, CO calls 58.8 BB

Hero shows A♠ A♥ (Full House, Aces full of Tens)
(Pre 87%, Flop 71%, Turn 20%)
CO shows 5♣ A♣ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 13%, Flop 29%, Turn 80%)
Hero wins 241.8 BB

The hands you posted aren't close to the one that we're talking about. Almost all of the money is going in on the river here MW and the line from MP is super nutted to FH and no bluffs.

I wouldn’t fold TT on the turn if I know the CO is a fish. Might not fold it regardless since implied odds are good.

Even more of a reason to fold.

DB search 'paired board/straight possible/flush possible/money all-in river'... what else do you suggest searching for?

Obv this exact hand won't exist in most DBs.

Hero folded. Unless there's some kind of epic switcheroo

I would suggest not posting any tbh because you aren’t going to find anything remotely close to this. I think that’s another reason to fold in weird spots where people are just going to play more straightforward than usual.

you: 'nobody overvalues flushes on these runouts'

me: evidence

you: don't post evidence bruh

you posted one hand where you 3b jam top FH over a tiny raise with hardly any money left behind, and one hand where you bet a flush IP for 3/4 pot on a low pared board after raising the turn. They aren't relevant to someone 3b jamming a stack into 2 players after someone already x/r into two people.

I didn't say nobody overvalues flushes on these runouts. I said they don't play flushes or bluff this way in this specific hand because it's suicidal.