$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

3BP's are the wild west, no one knows how to play them. OB isn't a thing here which I thought was interesting.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($85.45) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.5% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 116835]
SB ($29.75) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 17.7% | AGG: 43.8% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 17.6% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 62]
BB ($30.88) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 47.2% | Hands: 1231]
UTG ($27.74) [VPIP: 18% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 53.3% | Hands: 141]
HJ ($44.29) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 17.3% | AGG: 37.7% | Hands: 1791]
CO ($56.21) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 50.8% | Hands: 301]

Dealt to Hero: T♥ A♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Raises To $2.95, BB Folds, HERO Calls $2.35

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.36 effective]
Flop ($6.15): 7♥ 6♣ 8♦
SB Checks, HERO Bets $3.07 (Rem. Stack: $79.43), SB Calls $3.07 (Rem. Stack: $23.73)

Turn ($12.29): 7♥ 6♣ 8♦ A♦
SB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($12.29): 7♥ 6♣ 8♦ A♦ J♣
SB Bets $15 (Rem. Stack: $8.73), HERO Calls $15 (Rem. Stack: $64.43)

Deuces!

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($29.90) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.5% | Flop Agg: 41.4% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 56.9% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 116881]
SB ($50.39) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 21.7% | AGG: 47.2% | Hands: 1235]
BB ($26.82) [VPIP: 19.8% | PFR: 15.5% | AGG: 35.8% | Hands: 1218]
UTG ($18.59) [VPIP: 37.9% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 37.7% | Hands: 358]
HJ ($26.91) [VPIP: 14.8% | PFR: 11.1% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 27]
CO ($50.27) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 20.8% | Flop Agg: 10% | Turn Agg: 28.6% | River Agg: 44.4% | 3Bet: 9.9% | 4Bet: 37.5% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 175]

Dealt to Hero: 2♠ 2♦

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.57, HERO Raises To $1.68, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Raises To $5.09, HERO Calls $3.41

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.36 effective]
Flop ($10.53): 7♠ 3♥ 9♦
CO Checks, HERO Checks

Turn ($10.53): 7♠ 3♥ 9♦ T♠
CO Bets $3.30 (Rem. Stack: $41.88), HERO Calls $3.30 (Rem. Stack: $21.51)

River ($17.13): 7♠ 3♥ 9♦ T♠ T♣
CO Bets $8.14 (Rem. Stack: $33.74), HERO Calls $8.14 (Rem. Stack: $13.37)

I'm spamming today but this is something important I learned. 55x has the highest trips discrepancy of any trips in SRP's.

In this spot we have a huge donk leading range because of this. If you change it to 622r instead now we have 0% donking range. The pair on the board matters a lot.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 37.7% | Hands: 746]
SB ($55.31) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 14.3% | Hands: 11]
HERO ($57.97) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.5% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Cold Call: 9.9% | Hands: 116943]
UTG ($36.71) [VPIP: 20.9% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 23.8% | Hands: 45]
HJ ($19.57) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 28.3% | Hands: 173]
CO ($53.25) [VPIP: 19.8% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 34.8% | Flop Agg: 39.2% | Turn Agg: 30.2% | 3Bet: 6.4% | 4Bet: 23.1% | Hands: 1246]

Dealt to Hero: T♥ 9♦

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [47.95 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 5♥ 5♣ 6♠
HERO Bets $0.27 (Rem. Stack: $57.20), CO Calls $0.27 (Rem. Stack: $52.48)

Turn ($1.64): 5♥ 5♣ 6♠ 8♠
HERO Bets $0.41 (Rem. Stack: $56.79), CO Folds

wouldn't bother with this stuff. EV leak of trying to implement the strategy far outweighs the EV lost by not donking this kind of spot (which is near-zero). There's way more important things you could be doing with the time it takes to learn this

Yeah that is basically the simplified argument and we don't lose much EV if we nodelock to never donking.

Also if we only have one size OTT or only use small sizing OTF etc.

But it doesn't make much sense to me on a practical level because the point is to understand the spot. You lose comprehension of how to play the situation when you start simplifying. I'm trying to do the exact opposite of what you are proposing.

Thanks for the feedback though. It's nice to see I'm not just talking to myself here.

In my opinion it depends on what stage of development a player is at.

A newbie should definitely start by simplifying as much as possible and learn a "solid baseline strategy".
But after that I think it is good to gradually add more complexity, not because it will add a lot of EV in equilibrium, but for exploitative reasons.

The more strategic options we have available, the more room for exploits.

It doesn't matter that our own mistakes increase if we increase complexity as long as our opponents mistakes increase even more.

Very nice way of putting it.

I love looking at the high stakes hh's because it gives you so many ideas for your own play.

Great hand by Bong and Marinelli that helped me learn some concepts and made me think about how MDA makes us want to construct ranges as a default.

I couldn't find the HH in the highstakes HH thread (I just looked at September/October of this year) but this is the runout

Saulo just reviewed it in his weekly HH review thread but apparently those don't stay up on his channel.

In the original HH they are 160bb deep and Matt 3bets to 20bb but the concept of how we should be playing this spot is what is important to me. I'm going to recreate it at 100bb.

BTN open 2.5x, BB3BET to 13bb, BTN calls.

Flop is A♥7♣5♥

Okay so first thing as BB you need 2 sizing's here. You have a bunch of hands that want to bet small and then some bluffs/AK need to go big.

We see this in a bunch of spots as the 3BP OOP PFR and here is another one.

The turn is a Q♥

This is where it gets pretty crazy and we will mess this up if we aren't paying attention. You get a jamming range OTT here if you bet big OTF.

This almost never happens on Flush complete turns but because the A♥ is out there we get it. If we changed the the board to A♣7♥5♥ now we never jam turn. Poker is all about nuance.

Okay so in game Matt bet 40% OTF and decided to X turn. Bong stabbed with T♥Tx.

I think the most common bluffs for IP here are going to be pocket pairs with a ♥ when we bet big OTF (if we had bet small OTF I like x/c turn like Matt did). So we need to jam AKs here as a default imo.

Okay river is super interesting as well.

River 9♥

Matt Marinelli Donk Jams!

So this is definitely solver approved but I wanted to look at it from an MDA perspective.

We know from MDA that C-B-B on Turn FC and 2tone board 4 flush river is overbluffed. So as a default I would not donk river with any of my range even though it is theory approved.

By not donking river:

1. We put our opponent in a node that is overbluffed

2. We allow our opponent to value own himself with worse flushes

3. We get to bluff catch in an overbluffed node with our non flushes

Sick hand and let me know if someone can find the original HH.

Interesting hand, thanks for sharing.

I can't square what you're saying exactly - you say that you expect most of bong's turn bluffs to be single heart pp combos (sure) and then you say you expect bong to be overbluffing river. What combos is he overbluffing with if his turn bluffs all become flushes?

Edit: Ah sorry, I realize you're talking about after big bet here. After small does that mean you're expecting bong to stab with non heart pp floats or some backdoor hi club floats or what?

Also, quite certain Marinelli is very familiar with MDA ideas given his background. So, why do you think he chose to donkjam?

The original HH is weird because Marinelli very astutely went 20bb preflop with AK (AK is a hand that likes to play 2 streets on a lot of runouts so he made the SPR smaller than normal intentionally which is something I'm going to start trying for fun).

Obviously these guys are all way better than me and world class players but I do get benefit of getting days to think about the hand where as they only have 20 seconds or so. I think if Matt played the hand again he would realize that his huge 3bet preflop made pocket pairs more of his opponents range composition as well as suited hands over the offsuit hands like AJo/ATo/KQo etc for preflop and that would make him x/jam turn or x/f river instead of donking. Alternatively he could bet bigger OTF/jam turn with his exact holding.

I think once Matt bets small he has a big decision OTT. In a normal 3bp I would just x/c-xc down but because of the insane preflop action if you decide to xc turn then you need to x/f river on the 4th heart because of how preflop affected everything (IP has way more JhJx/ThTx than normal). Also IP has less club floats because of the polarized board (KQcc could float but it will X back turn sometimes once it hits a pair and you block KK so it's more likely you are good) and all his 1 heart pocket pairs will turn themselves into a bluff OTT because Bong knows he has no SDV.

This is why I don't think you should have a river donking range here.

It's a crazy hand because of preflop but just going over how much stronger ranges will be here I think that would be the right adjustment.

What do you think?

wrt to this question:

I think there is a huge difference between having the data of 250 million hands and studying the data of 250 million hands. There's too many spots to study, no one can know every spot.

Here is an example of a question I asked Saulo when I was in his CFP on fish/limp RR range(I know now they are wider than this and his answer was wrong).

And Saulo is an S-tier coach and super MDA expert.

If you think about why it's overbluffed then there's a region of hands that really want to donk river

What region of hands?

When you are the fish, I like a smaller xr in retrospect.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($26.35) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 45.2% | Hands: 257]
SB ($25.24) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 34.6% | Hands: 494]
HERO ($33.43) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.5% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Cold Call: 9.9% | Hands: 117283]
UTG ($23.20) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 7.4% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 28]
HJ ($37.73) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 40.7% | Flop Agg: 30.8% | Turn Agg: 42.9% | River Agg: 80% | 3Bet: 5.7% | 4Bet: 50% | Hands: 79]
CO ($27.36) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 43.5% | Hands: 1215]

Dealt to Hero: 8♥ 7♥

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.55, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [27.4 effective]
Flop ($1.20): Q♥ 4♣ 2♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $36.88), HERO Calls $0.30 (Rem. Stack: $32.58)

Turn ($1.80): Q♥ 4♣ 2♥ 6♠
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $1.35 (Rem. Stack: $35.53), HERO Calls $1.35 (Rem. Stack: $31.23)

River ($4.50): Q♥ 4♣ 2♥ 6♠ J♥
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $3.37 (Rem. Stack: $32.16), HERO Raises To $31.23 (allin), HJ Calls $27.86 (Rem. Stack: $4.30)

When you bluff into quads

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.72) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 45.2% | Hands: 257]
SB ($88.13) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 23% | AGG: 43.6% | Hands: 3664]
HERO ($52.89) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.5% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 35.5% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Cold Call: 9.9% | Hands: 117283]
UTG ($25.25) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 18.7% | AGG: 32.2% | Flop Agg: 35.8% | Turn Agg: 32.3% | River Agg: 33.8% | 3Bet: 12.2% | 4Bet: 38.7% | Hands: 1192]
HJ ($32.53) [VPIP: 28.7% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 89]
CO ($26.79) [VPIP: 14.6% | PFR: 10.7% | AGG: 30.5% | Hands: 1200]

Dealt to Hero: T♥ 9♦

UTG Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [22.5 effective]
Flop ($1.10): 9♥ 6♠ 4♣
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $0.52 (Rem. Stack: $24.23), HERO Calls $0.52 (Rem. Stack: $51.87)

Turn ($2.14): 9♥ 6♠ 4♣ 4♦
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $1.53 (Rem. Stack: $22.70), HERO Calls $1.53 (Rem. Stack: $50.34)

River ($5.20): 9♥ 6♠ 4♣ 4♦ 3♥
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $3.60 (Rem. Stack: $19.10), HERO Raises To $50.34 (allin), UTG Calls $19.10 (allin)

Posting from mobile so can't really quote but my interpretation of this hand is that Marinelli is trying to put bong's exact holding (single heart pps) to indifference with the donkjam. Having A is gonna be quite positive in terms of blocking strong flushes, less sure about the K but seems reasonable to me.

Flushes and sets seem to be put in a really brutal spot and I would expect Marinelli to have more high flushes because he's the 3bettor.

It's also hard for me to wrap my head around this spot being overbluffed. I would expect ip to mostly fold flop with no heart hands and starting to bluff with a hand like floated KJcc or something seems very weird. IP bluffing Ax otr also seems extremely savage, so I'm struggling to come up with the overbluffed region here.

So my stab at this hand is Marinelli putting villain on having many mid flushes (pp + heart region), having more nut flushes himself, and having positive blocker qualities with his AK which leads him to turn the hand into a bluff. I'm not super confident about this though - it seems like my understanding here is pretty different from both yours and tripleberry's. Regardless, it's an interesting hand and I appreciate your sharing it here 😀

Re your quads bluff hand, this seems like a pretty clean xc spot to me? That said it seems okay and I've certainly played similar hands myself. We definitely can get villain off overpairs here.

When I say overbluffed I mean across all boards the 4 flush run out is overbluffed in C-B-B 2t flop. There will be less here because the Ace is polarizing OTF.

Also it's BTNvsBB so we have one of the widest positions. Here is some MDA for this spot just in the aggregate you can see the line is overbluffed.

Also quick nuance note here - B50 is the most overbluffed turn stab sizing compared to B30 and B70 stab sizing.

WRT to the hand. My problem is the flop. KK/JJ aren't cbetting at 100% frequency so it becomes less believable to me. The Ah/Qh on the board make ThTx way stronger. I don't think any flush folds as IP here. I love the jam for value if he thinks weaker flushes ever X behind though.

In a normal 100bb solve. Only 5h5x or less are 0 EV calls. Any 6h6x or better becomes very positive EV so it is not a bluff catching spot in theory with some weaker flushes.

As far as the quads hand.

I had him at 40 WWSF and this spot is a 0EV in a solver so I figured I can't call. I think it goes jam>fold>call but could be wrong.

Thanks for checking in.

I think he's targeting Bong's bluffs? Like if he checks AK becomes an 0ev BC vs that range, and esp if he assumes turn is overstabbed because then IP will have even more of those pair/ loljams that have to fold to the donk, neutralising that river punt EV. (which would include some of those lower PPs - & 2p for that matter - that Bong is likely good enough to fold enough to tump x/c)

So a protection bluff. Or something.

I could actually see this thought process on a different board texture like A8765 or something where you bluff to fold out worse than flush hands but better than TPTK hands.

That would be epic.

This crossed my mind but surely we can just use suited ace wheels cause we can xx win vs AQ?

Idk. We win vs Ax if it goes x/x, but it depends how much OOP thinks those hands stab the turn. Plus how many lower PPs (which will fold) and paired SCs (which will also bluff but fold to a jam) they call and play this way after preflop action.

AFAIK: larger 3b = more condensed call range, but stack depth would push the other way and see more calls with lower PPs and SCs.

When you are trying to add new plays to your game you are going to **** up a lot by definition. That's part of the learning process.

Here I messed up the suits and should only do this with non ♥ hands. Worked out though.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.4% | Flop Agg: 41.4% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 41.6% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 118704]
SB ($28.96) [VPIP: 24% | PFR: 19.8% | AGG: 39.4% | Flop Agg: 57.1% | Turn Agg: 36.4% | River Agg: 14.3% | 3Bet: 14.3% | Fold to 3Bet: 100% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 96]
BB ($33.01) [VPIP: 21.5% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 81]
UTG ($48.76) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 14.5% | AGG: 32.1% | Hands: 675]
HJ ($58.46) [VPIP: 23.9% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 30.6% | Hands: 425]
CO ($47.90) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 34.7% | Hands: 1485]

Dealt to Hero: A♥ J♦

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Raises To $3, BB Folds, HERO Calls $2.40

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.15 effective]
Flop ($6.25): Q♥ 2♦ 4♣
SB Bets $2.97 (Rem. Stack: $22.99), HERO Calls $2.97 (Rem. Stack: $24.03)

Turn ($12.19): Q♥ 2♦ 4♣ 5♥
SB Bets $8.69 (Rem. Stack: $14.30), HERO Raises To $24.03 (allin), SB Calls $14.30 (allin)

River ($59.21): Q♥ 2♦ 4♣ 5♥ 3♦

woops. Interesting that J9o is a standard jam here as well.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($33.10) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]
SB ($28.99) [VPIP: 15.3% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 38.5% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 37.5% | 3Bet: 2.1% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 112]
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.4% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 41.5% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 12% | Cold Call: 9.9% | Hands: 119769]
UTG ($34.12) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 14.5% | AGG: 28.4% | Hands: 6429]
HJ ($32.31) [VPIP: 23.9% | PFR: 18.1% | AGG: 30.5% | Hands: 1054]
CO ($204.43) [VPIP: 44.3% | PFR: 35.4% | AGG: 51.3% | Hands: 82]

Dealt to Hero: T♦ J♣

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $0.62, HERO Calls $0.37

Hero SPR on Flop: [22.88 effective]
Flop ($1.24): 4♥ 7♦ 9♣
SB Bets $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $27.75), HERO Calls $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $28.76)

Turn ($2.48): 4♥ 7♦ 9♣ J♦
SB Bets $1.24 (Rem. Stack: $26.51), HERO Calls $1.24 (Rem. Stack: $27.52)

River ($4.96): 4♥ 7♦ 9♣ J♦ 3♣
SB Bets $3.72 (Rem. Stack: $22.79), HERO Raises To $27.52 (allin), SB Calls $22.79 (allin)

What's Shipnickle! It's been awhile.

Okay new 3bp concept I learned over the past week.

Inspired by this hand

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($66.69) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.4% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 41.5% | 3Bet: 10.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 56.8% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 119933]
SB ($17.85) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 12.8% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 49]
BB ($40.37) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 3]
UTG ($28.27) [VPIP: 5.6% | PFR: 5.6% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 18]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 17.3% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 27.5% | Hands: 759]
CO ($32.20) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 28.6% | Flop Agg: 16.7% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 13% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 55]

Dealt to Hero: Q♥ T♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.62, HERO Raises To $1.91, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $1.29

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.26 effective]
Flop ($4.17): K♥ 2♦ J♠
CO Checks, HERO Bets $1.34 (Rem. Stack: $63.44), CO Calls $1.34 (Rem. Stack: $28.95)

Turn ($6.85): K♥ 2♦ J♠ 8♥
CO Checks, HERO ?

We only 100% turn bet with one combo of QTs and it is not this one.

We 100% double barrel with Q♠T♠ as we we want to unblock QsJs/JsTs, those hands are 0EV vs a turn barrel. The unblocking of 0EV hands is a common theme in deciding when to bet or not to bet.

Hand #2. This illustrates the same theme except it's reversed. Instead of unblocking 0EV hands we now block 0EV hands. So even though we have an OESD we now take the pure action of 100% check because we block 0EV hands of 88/77.

SBvsBB3BET T95r flop - We B50 OTF, SB calls. Turn is off suit deuce. 87s is 100% checked.

It's counter intuitive if you only think about your equity in the hand but it becomes more natural to check when you start thinking about your opponent's range and what hands we are targeting.

Prioritizing our opponent's range over our exact hand will help us figure these spots out more quickly in real time.

Great thread, Great hand histories,

Subbed

Okay this HH was inspired by Ceres for the xc-xr line as SBvsBB SRP.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($56.36) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 23% | AGG: 43.4% | Hands: 4067]
HERO ($36.56) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 38.4% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 35.4% | River Agg: 41.5% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 12% | Hands: 120175]
BB ($22.35) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 25.2% | AGG: 61.5% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 80% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 57.1% | Hands: 20]
UTG ($100.27) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 13.2% | AGG: 23.7% | Hands: 72]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 21.2% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 52.2% | Hands: 167]
CO ($42.57) [VPIP: 26.1% | PFR: 22.3% | AGG: 49.6% | Hands: 1469]

Dealt to Hero: J♥ K♠

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [14.4 effective]
Flop ($1.50): T♣ 7♥ 5♦
HERO Checks, BB Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $20.85), HERO Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $35.06)

Turn ($3): T♣ 7♥ 5♦ T♥
HERO Checks, BB Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $20.10), HERO Raises To $3 (Rem. Stack: $32.06)

Versus the double stab we get a turn xc-xr range. Let's compare theory vs MDA filters.

A solver folds around low 40%'s vs a turn xr here. It will depend on the sizing's but it will never reach the 50% threshold on any runout.

Now compare this to the MDA aggregate.

Population is folding 53% of the time in B50-B70F line.

Why is population folding more than a solver?

Well we can figure this out by looking at B-B ranges for BB.

They stab too often.

GTO is the first percentages and then the 2nd is 50nl regs and 3rd is 500nl regs.

So since they are overstabbing it makes sense that they over fold a bit.

Now let's go to filtered MDA: This is where we can really take advantage of our opponents.

We know they fold 53% of the time overall in the B-BF line as BB.

But once we filter for paired turns that number goes up to at least 55% and all the way up to 59%

This is what would be considered a hot spot. A spot where we are seeing significant deviations from theory, so we can xr any two cards here profitably.

If they call turn, give up OTR since their range is stronger than it should be.