The Bitcoin Poker Challenge

Welcome back to the poker grind! Your previous journey was quite the ride, and I'm excited to follow your new challenge. Grinding NL100-NL200-NL500 on GGpoker while accumulating BTC is a unique twist.

Cool!Good luck ! Do you have any trading experience?

Just saw your previous thread which led me here. Getting back into poker myself, although at much smaller stakes. Love the BTC angle as well. Jeff Booth's Price of Tomorrow really changed my perspective on BTC.

GL and wishing you some run good!

Ty, yes I m backtesting, coding and running algo trading systems since 2020. Love to study charts and markets overall. Not as fun as poker though!

Welcome back and GL man!!

Week 1 Update
Hands Played: 20,100 (including September hands)
Profit: -$836
Rakeback: $910
Net Profit: $74
Total Hours Played: 55h
Total BTC Purchased: 0

Thoughts & Mistakes:

• I'm definitely feeling rusty, and my overall confidence in my game has taken a hit.
  
• Spent too much time in autopilot mode, which is not ideal.
  
• Made some bad decisions against the field: overbluffed in spots against recreational players and called nitty regs way too wide. It's been costing me.
  

Next Week Goals:

• Work on minimizing autopilot and stay present in each hand.
  
• Limit myself to 4-tabling at most to avoid distractions and maintain focus.
  
• Stream 3 times on Twitch and actively comment on every hand to keep myself engaged.
  
• Start taking notes on villains during play to better adjust and make smarter decisions.
  

*I ll anounce this week's twitch schedule in a few hours

Youtube too pls so we can watch the replays. Monetize your channel

Week 2 Update
Hands Played: 5,740
Profit: -$234
Rakeback: $199
Net Profit: -$35
Total Hours Played: 14.5h
Total BTC Purchased: 0

Thoughts:

Getting back to poker is proving to be more overwhelming than expected. Mentally, I wasn’t as strong as I needed to be. My confidence during sessions is low, which is clearly affecting my play.

On a positive note, I managed to perform relatively well in the last 1-2 sessions. I’ve realized that I need to overfold in many spots against the current field to get my blue line back on track, and that adjustment felt good, even if the wins were small.

Unfortunately, volume was lower than I’d hoped this week as I’ve been dealing with a fever for the past few days. I’ll likely take the next 2-3 days off to recover fully.

Weekly Goals Check:

• Minimize autopilot and stay present in each hand: Not Reached
  
• Limit to 4-tabling to avoid distractions: Achieved
  
• Stream 3 times on Twitch with commentary on every hand: Not Reached
  
• Take notes on villains to adjust better: Achieved
  

Next Week's Goals:

• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus.
  
• Stream 3 times on Twitch and actively comment on every hand.
  
• Continue taking notes on villains during play in a consistent manner.
  
• Analyze and post at least one hand after each session on 2+2.
  
• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume.
  

Week 2 - NL100 night session

Discord: SolidPoker discord
Twitch: SolidPoker Twitch Channel
Youtube: Youtube channel

P.S. Buy BTC

Post session - Hand Analysis
The old school 3 barrel bluff

https://my.pokercraft.com/embedded/shared/hand-replay/74BXLWS000S88S8SM13SNX

my

GGPoker HH NL Rush & Cash $0.50 / $1 -#RC2926385027

https://my.pokercraft.com/embedded/shared/hand-scene/UE3FLTA80SAS8ASSM1IUFS

my

GGPoker HH NL Rush & Cash $0.50 / $1 -#RC2926385027

Flop : [vs 50% cbet]
GTO solution
Using the GTO Wizard solutions, here is the optimal play (OP) response vs a 50% c-bet:

Real Game Exploit Assumptions
Based on experience, it seems the majority of the field does not raise enough on this type of board. If we remove the check-raise option from the opponent (OP), their calling range would look something like this:

Turn: [IP strategy]
GTO solution

Real game exploit assumptions

Given that OP’s flop calling range is stronger in the exploit scenario, it makes sense for IP to c-bet less often on the turn (42% instead of 58% in the GTO solution). While AcQ combos are okay to double-barrel sometimes, the EV difference between checking and betting 50% is minimal.

River
Now that we’ve reached the river, let’s compare the IP c-bet strategy between the GTO and exploit ranges.

GTO solution

Exploit

Frequency-wise, not much has changed. IP continues bluffing at roughly the same frequency. This makes sense because the equities between the two solutions remain close. It doesn’t seem to be a huge mistake not to x-raise that flop. Also, if IP over-c-bets the turn, it can be a good exploit not to have a check-raising range at all, as IP might arrive at the river with a very bluff-heavy range.

Calling Range After the 3-Barrel
GTO solution vs Exploit solution

There is a very similar response from OP between the two solutions, with only slight differences. In the exploit scenario, some bluff-catchers like 99, 66, and 76 are removed from OP’s range.

Exploit if OP always calls QQ,JJ,TT (IP river cbet strategy)

Key takeaways:

• This is a spot where it's very possible to overbluff, and villains may also overcall. The frequency of turn c-bets is critical (an RNG should be used); otherwise, you can reach the river too wide and overbluff on scarecards.
  
  
• Against aggressive villains who tend to overbluff overcards on later streets, it makes sense not to have a check-raising range on these low boards. Let them hit a scarecard with a wider range to make their betting ranges more bluff-heavy.
  

Week 3 Update:
Hours played: 16h
Profit: -$427
Rakeback: $153
Net Profit: -$274
Total BTC Purchased: 0

GGpoker weekly graph

Thoughts:
I made a few changes this week. I’ve added two more poker rooms—CoinPoker and WPT—to have more options for my daily grind. The issue with these rooms is that they don’t provide hand histories to download, like GGpoker does. So, for these rooms, I’ll be tracking my volume on an hourly basis ($/hour) instead of bb/100. Unfortunately, I didn’t achieve my weekly goals to the level I had hoped. Playing during twitch stream feels more challenging when I lack confidence in my game; right now, it adds an extra layer of pressure. As for the volume, there’s no excuse—I need to make a stronger effort to grind more hours.

Weekly Goals Check:

• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus: Achieved
  
• Stream 3 times on Twitch and actively comment on every hand: Not achieved
  
• Continue taking notes on villains during play in a consistent manner: Achieved
  
• Analyze and post at least one hand after each session on 2+2: Not achieved
  
• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume: Not achieved
  

Next Week’s Goals:

• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume.
  
• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus.
  
• Upload 2 videos of my study sessions on YouTube.
  
• Upload 2 session videos on YouTube instead of doing live streams.
  

P.S. Buy BTC

I’m right there with you on the BTC goals. 500k LFG!

Hey guys, does anyone knows if there is a way to get my hand histories from Coinpoker ?

Week 4 Update

I took a week off due to my trading business, which required my focus.

GGpoker (with rakeback): -$675
WPT: +$120
CoinPoker: -$390
Net PnL: -$945
Total Hours Played: 21h

Total BTC Purchased: 0 :(

GGpoker weekly results

Thoughts:
It’s been another week with results similar to the previous one. I honestly can’t remember the last time I had a full month in the red for online cash games. In the past, I’d choose stakes where my winrate was decent and variance was smaller, but poker variance doesn’t care about past results or stats. At this point, it’s frustrating to see my performance not improving week after week.

I think a combination of factors is contributing to this outcome. One of them might be that I no longer consider myself a full-time poker player. When I book a losing session, it seems to affect my ego more than my bankroll, which has become a key issue. Oddly enough, not fearing losses can be just as detrimental as playing in fear of losing.

The main goal of this challenge was to motivate myself to play poker and enjoy Twitch streams, with the hope of making some profit along the way. But right now, it feels more like a burden, and the road ahead seems steep. Despite the struggles, my love for the game remains strong. So, regardless of the results, I’ll keep pushing forward and continue playing until the challenge is complete.

Weekly Goals Check:
Hit a 20-hour weekly volume: Achieved
Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus: Achieved
Upload 2 videos of my study sessions on YouTube: No
Upload 2 session videos on YouTube instead of doing live streams: No

Next Week’s Goals:

• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume
  
• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus
  
• Upload 1 video of my study sessions on YouTube
  

P.S. Crypto related post is coming next....Buy BTC

////////////////////// PART 1 - THE SETUP //////////////////////////////////
Since this poker challenge is tied to the King of crypto, Bitcoin, I wanted to share some recent "alpha" from my past week’s research. Everything below is purely statistical (so at least my week’s absence from poker wasn’t for nothing).

First off, I don’t believe in any patterns or technical analysis prophecies. As an algo-trader, my job is to contextualize these patterns and make them measurable by an algorithm. Much like poker, I believe in probabilities and risk management. I'm not going to bet my entire bankroll, even if I have a set of Aces against KK on the flop—there’s always risk.

Now, onto Bitcoin. It’s on the verge of a huge move (up or down), which could unfold within the next few weeks, possibly by year-end. The monthly BTC/USD chart is currently forming a perfect "bull flag" pattern, ticking all the characteristics of the pattern till this point. So, what exactly is a bull flag?

-Characteristics of a Bull Flag Pattern

1. Preceding Uptrend (Flagpole):
A bull flag forms after a significant upward movement (the flagpole), which is characterized by strong bullish momentum with increasing volume.

2. Consolidation (Flag):
After the rally, price consolidates in a tight range or slightly downward, forming the "flag." This phase usually sees lower volume and volatility, as buyers and sellers reach a temporary equilibrium before the next move.

3. Duration:
The consolidation phase typically lasts 1 to 3 weeks on shorter timeframes (daily charts), or a few months on weekly/monthly charts. Prolonged consolidation can weaken the pattern's validity.

4. Volume Characteristics:
Volume should decrease during consolidation (flag), with a spike in volume confirming the breakout.

5. Breakout Direction:
After consolidation, the price should break upward, continuing the previous trend. A breakout above resistance (around $65,000 for Bitcoin) would confirm the bull flag, potentially leading to further bullish momentum.

-My Research on Bull Flag Patterns:
I analyzed monthly charts of 200+ NASDAQ tech stocks and gold, looking for this pattern. While daily patterns are often random, my findings on the monthly charts are more promising:

75% of bull flags on the monthly charts broke to the upside.
65% reached their technical target before they reach their stop loss targets
(*weekly close below 52k for BTCUSD chart is the stop loss and 115k is the target)

Unfortunately anything objective stops at this point of my essay. Research on probabilities and statistical results are the numbers above. Time for some speculation now...

Why a Monthly pattern is much more valueble than a Daily or 4-hour pattern
Lower timeframes come with more market noise and false breakouts. Quick price movements can trigger false signals or breakdowns that invalidate the pattern. This is because short-term moves are more influenced by minor news events, intraday liquidity changes, high frequency algos and speculative behavior. Truth is high frequency trading and day trading is almost unbeatable for retail traders.
On higher timeframes like weekly or monthly, patterns are generally considered more reliable. This is because they reflect longer-term trends and larger market cycles. When a bull flag forms on these timeframes, it usually indicates a significant move driven by strong fundamental or macroeconomic factors.

/////////////////////// PART 2 - THE SIGNS ///////////////////////////////////

The formation of bull flags in financial markets can be explained through the lens of psychology and market participant behavior. Here's how the psychology plays out and the signs I see (more speculation, pure personal opinions)

1. The Impulsive Move (Flagpole) – Euphoria and FOMO:
Euphoria and Momentum: When prices rally quickly, it often signals that the market is highly optimistic. Buyers are piling in because they believe that the asset will continue rising.
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): As the price surges, a sense of urgency spreads throughout the market. Traders who are not yet in the trade experience FOMO, driving them to enter positions hastily to avoid missing out on further gains (greed).

The Sign #1

During March-April 2024, Binance funding rates skyrocketed as traders paid 0.07% every 8 hours to long BTC (red box). That’s the equivalent of 204% annually—basically, if BTC went up 204% in a year, you’d only break even!...in other words everybody wanted to be long BTC (Euphoria and FOMO?)

[* When the funding rate is positive, traders who are long (betting the price will go up) pay those who are short (betting the price will go down). Conversely, when the rate is negative, short traders pay the long traders. The funding rate reflects market sentiment: when demand to go long is high, the rate increases, and vice versa.

2. Consolidation (Flag) – Exhaustion, Profit-Taking, and Rebalancing:
-Profit-taking: After the initial impulsive rally, many participants begin to take profits. Early buyers see a good opportunity to lock in gains, and as a result, buying momentum slows down. However, this doesn't necessarily mean a shift to a bearish sentiment—it’s more of a natural pause.
-Skepticism and Uncertainty: Some market participants may become cautious, unsure whether the uptrend will continue. This leads to the sideways or slightly downward consolidation phase.

The Sign #2
Let's take look at funding rates during the flag period. 30-Day Avg of Funding rates crashed below neutral (green box). It's actual the cheapest time to keep some long trades in your books, it would now cost you 9%/year instead 204%/year to go long on BTC. Is that enough of "Skepticism and Uncertainty" ?

-Accumulation by strong hands: During the flag-consolidation phase, large market players (institutional investors or experienced traders) might start accumulating positions again. They may view this consolidation as a chance to buy at lower levels before the uptrend resumes.

The Sign #3
Does anybody knows any big pockets buying BTC lately?....what about those ETF guys??

3 .Breakout – Renewed Optimism and Confirmation (Yet to come):
Traders who missed the initial move (during the flagpole phase) or those who were hesitant during the consolidation are now looking for confirmation. As soon as the price breaks out above the flag's resistance, it creates renewed optimism, and they jump in, reinforcing the uptrend.

/////////////////////// PART 3 - THE GAMBLE ///////////////////////////////////

Trade Idea:
Key Price Level for Entry:
Major Resistance: $68,000 (a breakout above this, with volume, would confirm the uptrend)

Entry Strategies:
Conservative: Wait for a weekly close above $68,000 with strong volume.
Aggressive: Enter around $65,000 on an intraday breakout, but this carries more risk.

Stop-Loss Placement:
Place a stop below the consolidation zone $52,000 depending on risk tolerance. Stop loss execution should be done only at a weekly close below 52k

Target:
Use the flagpole's height ($65,000 - $15,000 = $50,000) to project the next move:
Target Price: $68,000 + $50,000 = $118,000 === $100,000 (let's use a round number and more conservative)

Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
Entry: $68k
Stop Loss: $52k
Target: $100k
Bull flag probabilities suggest a 65% chance to reach the target of 115k but we leave this extra 15k as a room for error
:
EV = 65% * (Target - Entry) + 35% * (Stop Loss)
= 0.65 * $32,000 + 0.35 * (-$16,000)
= +$15,200 EV per BTC

Final Thoughts:
In my experience, outlier trades make up the bulk of your gains. While 97% of trades may be average, 3% will be your big winners. This trade feels like one of those rare opportunities but I have not ability to predict that, I control only my risk. In any case your trade is not better than KK vs AK preflop all in.Don’t be greedy, stick to your plan, and trade safely. I hope this helps.

I run a small family office where we focus mainly on backtesting, coding, and operating algorithmic trading systems. Most of our strategies revolve around swing trading, but we're also working on long-term investment strategies across various asset classes. It’s a mix of active trading and strategic, diversified investing.

Week 5 Update

Hands Played: 6,700
Profit: +$1,762
Rakeback: $310
Net Profit: $2,072
Total Hours Played: 20.5h
All-Time Net Profit: $892

BTC DCA #1
Price: $68,300
Amount: 892 / 68,300 = 0.01306 BTC

Thoughts:
This week went pretty well in terms of both results and volume. It’s always nice to catch an upswing, and it's even better when you can reinvest the profits into Bitcoin. My gameplay felt sharper, and I think I’ve adjusted better to the GGpoker field. Not mixing in any other poker rooms this week helped with my focus for sure.

Weekly Goals Check:

• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume: Achieved
  
• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus: Achieved
  
• Upload 1 video of my study sessions on YouTube: Not achieved
  

Next Week’s Goals:

• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume
  
• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus
  

I ll start posting few sessions on Youtube, mainly to improve my focus during sessions...let me know if anything is really wrong, not much experience in the content creation process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6QKZnM5p7U

YouTube

The BTC Challenge - NL200 session (week 6)

Week 6 Update

Hands Played: 6,250
Profit: +$500
Rakeback + Promo: $387
Net Profit: $887
Total Hours Played: 20h
All-Time Net Profit: $1,779

BTC DCA #2
Price: $68,600
Amount: $887 / $68,600 = 0.0129 BTC
Total BTC Accumulated: 0.0129 + 0.01306 = 0.026 BTC

Thoughts:
In a few words, it could have been better. I mainly played the GG ante game at NL100, a format I haven’t studied much before. I didn’t have time for extensive study, focusing only on some preflop concepts. Overall, it’s an interesting game format with lots of room for exploitation and creativity. I made some significant mistakes experimenting with strategies, but I suppose that’s part of the learning curve.

For the first 3,000 hands, I was really focused, and my red line stayed close to 0, making my overall win rate look very lucrative. However, in the last few sessions, my focus slipped, and, as expected, the red line started to drop along with my profits. Working on my red line has always been a priority, as it’s an area I tend to struggle with.

Weekly Goals Check:

• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume: Achieved
  
• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus: Achieved
  

Next Week’s Goals:

• Hit a 20-hour weekly volume
  
• Stick to 4-5 tables max to avoid distractions and maintain focus
  
• Work on red line concepts
  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6QKZnM5p7U

YouTube

The BTC Challenge - NL200 session (week 6)

P.S. Buy BTC

Week 7 Update

• Hands Played: 3,450
  
• Profit: -$86
  
• Rakeback + Promo: $286
  
• Net Profit: $200
  
• Total Hours Played: 8h
  
• All-Time Net Profit: $1,979
  

BTC DCA #3

• Price: $68,900
  
• Amount: $200 / $68,900 = 0.0029 BTC
  
• Total BTC Accumulated: 0.0129 + 0.01306 + 0.0029 = 0.0289 BTC
  

Thoughts:
Not much poker time this week. With the upcoming U.S. election, my focus shifted towards the markets, so I only managed to play 8 hours with no time for study. Overall, it was almost a non-poker week. Next week, I’ll be completely off poker to closely monitor the election outcome and the market's reaction.

Update on the BTC Trade:
The BTC trade I was in is still active with a stop loss at $52k and a target of $100k. However, I personally closed the trade temporarily for a nice profit ahead of the election.

I’m not a fan of trading around big events where technical analysis and patterns lose their reliability. My plan is to re-enter the trade at Wednesday's close after the election, even if I have to give up some gains. The only scenario in which I won’t re-enter is if Trump wins and BTC closes red on Wednesday. In that case, I’d interpret it as a negative market reaction (as I would expect a positive response to a Trump win).

Next Week’s Goals:
Watch the U.S. election shitshow unfold.

P.S. Buy BTC

Hello poker friends,

This isn’t an update on my BTC challenge, as there’s simply no time for poker this week given the current state of the crypto market.

A quick update on my BTC trade for anyone following along. As I mentioned in my last post, I re-entered the trade on U.S. election night when early exit polls seemed to make a Trump victory highly probable. Watching the market reaction was a surprise, but by sacrificing some gains, I secured a higher quality trade in return. I re-entered around $72.5k and am now riding the setup once again.

Where do we stand now?
As I described in the initial trade setup post a few weeks back, this felt like one of the best setups a trader could hope for. So far, things are moving in the right direction, though there’s never any certainty in these markets. My target remains $100k, but with the market shifting significantly in my favor, I’ve decided to MOVE MY STOP to $65k. This brings it closer to my re-entry level and provides a bit more security. The stop will be executed on a weekly close below $65k.

Trade safe, don't be greedy and enjoy this bull market. Back to poker next week.Cheers!

Hell yea, great trade. There are times to focus on markets and times to focus on poker, this is def the former. Gonna be hard trying to call the top this time around, I think most people might end up selling early this time around whereas in prior cycles most sold too late. Have to take it day by day tho

I agree....calling the top is like shipping a 5000players mtt, pure luck :p

Week 8 Update

Hands Played: 22,274
Profit: $1,197
Rakeback + Rake Race: $416 + $200 + $240
Jackpot: $2,159
Net Profit: $4,212
Total Hours Played: 38h
All-Time Net Profit: $6,191

BTC DCA #4
Price: $91,000
Amount: $4,212 / $91,000 = 0.0462 BTC
Total BTC Accumulated: 0.0129 + 0.01306 + 0.0029 + 0.0462 = 0.07518 BTC

Thoughts:
This week I grinded RnC NL100. I’ve never really been a fan of zoom formats, but since my volume on reg tables has been suffering, I decided to give it a try. Luckily, I hit a jackpot during my very first session, which definitely made the experience much more enjoyable!

Regarding the zoom pool on GG, it’s really passive and stationary overall. At first, I struggled a bit to find the overfolds and those thin value-betting spots, but after the first few thousand hands, I managed to adjust properly. The format has potential, so my plan is to stick with it for the next few weeks. I’m also considering conducting a mass data analysis on the player pool to find additional edges.

Next Week’s Goals:

• Play 20k zoom hands
  
• 500 hands drills on BxB lines
  

P.S. Buy BTC