NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA
Just 8 days until Florida State plays Georgia Tech!
A lot happened while you were away:
Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC
The Pac-12 went out in a blaze of glory:
Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA are headed to the B1G
Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado are headed to the B12
Cal and Stanford along with SMU are somehow headed to the ACC
Poor old Wazzu and Oregon State are now aligned with the MWC in some sort of in-flux relationship
The conferences are huge now, and the schedules are wildly imbalanced. Florida might have the hardest schedule in the history of the sport, while Missouri's playing a sun-belt slate.
FSU and Clemson play each other, but then play ZERO common ACC opponents
Utah/Baylor and Arizona/Kansas State play non-conference games against conference opponents
LSU and USC play in Vegas!
Boise goes to Oregon, a team they've never lost to!
Texas at Michigan!
Alabama at Wisconsin!
Notre Dame at ATM!
Clemson vs Georgia!
And there are some incredibly juicy new conference matchups:
Texas @ ATM is back!
Texas vs Georgia
Oregon vs Ohio State
USC @ Michigan
USC vs Penn State
And then the bizarre:
UCLA @ Rutgers is now a conference game
Syracuse plays home and away against Cal and Stanford for some reason
Half the teams have new coaches, transferred quarterbacks, or both!
Let's get it on!
I want to think of him as a Patrick Mahomes type of QB (without the soccer diving for penalties) but then he makes some inexplicably terrible throws that makes him look like any sh**ty typical NFL QB out there like...anyone not named Mahomes
Colorado’s o-line is one of the shittiest units on either side in the country
LFG!!!! I just poured a rare triple barrel for me.
nice to know that SRM is in my corner to root this BUFFS win home!!!!!!! (even though, tbh, they've been kinda s**t). Better lucky than good as they say
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO don't fall down
I don't feel confident that the BUFFS will automatically score a TD
EDIT: my bad!
PRIME TIME
Colorado keeping the night fun.
jfc that may be the worst pass defense in CFB history....tackle the guy and get DPI...and he still catches a TD pass? I'm guessing a Taco Bell server is his more likely future occupation than a NFL player.
Kazzou scored with 2:30 left. They must believe they can get the ball back.
Lame, more than anything I was rooting for a good ending
4th and short, let's throw a fade bomb along the sidelines which has no chance of being completed. F me
the only saving grace is that BUFFS +3.5 bettors did OK
Remember Deion is the guy who elected to go first in OT vs. Colorado St. last year. Which meant not only did he go first in the first OT. He went first in the second OT. Still won of course.
Dude is not a good strategic coach.
As what? No one is going to hire Deion to be a head coach/OC
Crazy how close Vandy was to being a top 5? team. 2ot loss to mizzou and a Ga st. Loss.
TUESDAY
Our Tuesday games have a combined record of 7-27, but hey football on a Tuesday is football on a Tuesday!
19:30:00 Troy 12.5
19:30:00 South Alabama -12
20:00:00 Kennesaw State 10
20:00:00 Middle Tenn. St -9.5
21:00:00 Louisiana Tech -10.5
21:00:00 New Mexico State 10.5
WEDNESDAY
19:00:00 Western Kentucky 3.5
19:00:00 Sam Houston -3
Plausible elimination game for the CUSA title game
21:00:00 Florida International -5.5
21:00:00 UTEP 6
THURSDAY
19:00:00 Georgia State 9
19:00:00 Marshall -8.5
19:30:00 Boston College 7
19:30:00 Virginia Tech -6.5
Both are 1-1 in the ACC and are pretty close to controlling their destiny. VT gets Clemson at home and could knock them out (already lost to Miami), while BC plays both Pitt and SMU and would then hope either Miami or Clemson loses a game and they win some kind of weird tiebreaker.
FRIDAY
19:00:00 Florida State 4
19:00:00 Duke -3.5
Just as we all expected, Duke and FSU play and one is 1-5 and one is 5-1.
20:00:00 Oregon -27
20:00:00 Purdue 27.5
#2 Oregon on a Friday night on the road against the Spoilermakers as a 30 point favorite. What could go wrong?
22:15:00 Oklahoma State 9.5
22:15:00 BYU -8.5
BYU is 6-0 and is a legitimate threat to win the B12 and/or make the playoffs. Big-12 is absolute chaos this year. Best case scenario for the conference is two bids. Base case is a bid and the 4 seed. Worst case is a bid and the 5 seed.
22:30:00 Fresno State -2.5
22:30:00 Nevada 2.5
SATURDAY
12:00:00 East Carolina 16.5
12:00:00 Army -15.5
Army is undefeated and RANKED. They've played mostly a smattering of sub-100 rated teams, but at least have also been blowing the doors off of them
12:00:00 Auburn 5.5
12:00:00 Missouri -5.5
The sooner Missouri and their joke of a schedule get eliminated from the playoffs, the better
12:00:00 Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5
12:00:00 Coastal Carolina 3.5
12:00:00 Arizona State 3.5
12:00:00 Cincinnati -3
These teams are a combined 9-3 and both sit at 2-1 in the B12. The winner will probably double their chances of a conference title and playoff berth, and the loser is drawing extremely thin
12:00:00 Virginia 21.5
12:00:00 Clemson -21
12:00:00 Miami -4
12:00:00 Louisville 4
Miami's toughest test remaining, tune in late to see how blatant the cheating is this week!
12:00:00 Wake Forest 2.5
12:00:00 UConn -1.5
12:00:00 Nebraska 7
12:00:00 Indiana -6.5
The line has ballooned on this one from -3.5 last week. People are really on the Indiana train. Win this, and their odds of an 11-1 or better season increase from 33% to 48%. Nebraska's odds of 10-2+ increase from 4.5% to 12.3% with a win
12:00:00 Wisconsin -6.5
12:00:00 Northwestern 7
12:00:00 UCLA 6.5
12:00:00 Rutgers -6.5
12:45:00 South Carolina 3
12:45:00 Oklahoma -2.5
Both these teams are probably in at 9-3. So, it's an elimination game for USCe, while Oklahoma doubles their odds of finishing 9-3 from 0.8% to 1.5%
14:00:00 Tulsa 3
14:00:00 Temple -2.5
14:00:00 Central Michigan 2.5
14:00:00 Eastern Michigan -1.5
15:30:00 UAB 14
15:30:00 South Florida -13.5
15:30:00 UNC Charlotte 17.5
15:30:00 Navy -16.5
15:30:00 Florida Atlantic 3.5
15:30:00 UTSA -3
15:30:00 Rice 22.5
15:30:00 Tulane -21.5
15:30:00 Hawaii 19.5
15:30:00 Washington State -19
15:30:00 Alabama -2.5
15:30:00 Tennessee 2.5
Both of these teams lost as huge favorites two weeks ago, and both of them very narrowly escaped a second catastrophic loss as a huge favorite last weekend. Both teams have 1 loss and are definitely in at 10-2, but I think are more likely out than not at 9-3.
15:30:00 Texas State -9.5
15:30:00 Old Dominion 10
15:30:00 Houston 6.5
15:30:00 Kansas -6.5
15:30:00 Kent 20.5
15:30:00 Bowling Green -20.5
15:30:00 Western Michigan 1.5
15:30:00 Buffalo -1.5
15:30:00 Ohio 4
15:30:00 Miami (OH) -3.5
15:30:00 Toledo 2.5
15:30:00 Northern Illinois -2.5
15:30:00 North Carolina State 10.5
15:30:00 California -9.5
15:30:00 Notre Dame -10.5
15:30:00 Georgia Tech 11.5
One of three neutral site games for ND this year. GT already has two losses, but with games against ND, Miami and Georgia left, they are certainly a lock at 9-3. Notre Dame is in at 10-2 and out at 9-3, doesn't get any simpler than that.
15:30:00 Michigan -1
15:30:00 Illinois 1.5
Illinois survived Purdue 50-49 in overtime, while Michigan had a bye. Michigan's got a tough slate ahead, while Oregon is the only ranked opponent that Illinois has left. TBD how the committee will treat a team like Illinois if they go 10-2 with losses to both the ranked teams they faced.
16:00:00 New Mexico -2.5
16:00:00 Utah State 2.5
16:00:00 Wyoming 11.5
16:00:00 San Jose State -11.5
16:00:00 James Madison -9.5
16:00:00 Georgia Southern 10
16:00:00 Colorado 3.5
16:00:00 Arizona -3.5
16:00:00 Baylor 7
16:00:00 Texas Tech -6.5
Texas Tech is 5-1 and currently on top of the B12. Wazzu is also a very interested party in this game, as I have them at 40% to win out, and they own wins over both Texas Tech and Washington
16:00:00 USC -7
16:00:00 Maryland 7.5
USC is still live! I'm telling you! I have them at 8% to win out, and think they're a lock at 9-3.
16:15:00 Texas A&M -14.5
16:15:00 Mississippi State 14.5
19:00:00 LSU -2.5
19:00:00 Arkansas 3
LSU picked up a huge win against Ole Miss on Saturday, but is on the road for three of the next four.
19:00:00 Ball State 26.5
19:00:00 Vanderbilt -26.5
19:00:00 Arkansas State -6.5
19:00:00 Southern Miss 6.5
19:30:00 North Texas 10.5
19:30:00 Memphis -10
19:30:00 Georgia 3.5
19:30:00 Texas -3.5
UGA is an underdog for the first time in like 50 games. Texas has been dominant, but they also only face two ranked teams this year. Georgia hasn't looked great in their last two games, and with Ole Miss and Tennessee still coming up really don't want to lose here. (Although that dominant win over Clemson proably gets them in the playoff at 9-3)
19:30:00 Central Florida 13.5
19:30:00 Iowa State -13.5
Same blurb as BYU
19:30:00 Kansas State -2.5
19:30:00 West Virginia 3
WVU is coming off of a frustrating loss to ISU while K-State won a nail biter at Colorado
19:30:00 Iowa -6.5
19:30:00 Michigan State 6.5
Iowa doesn't play Oregon, Penn State or Indiana and already got their thumping by OSU. They're favored in their last six, and are about 10% to win out and finish 10-2, losing to both the ranked teams they played. Same sort of thing as Illinois.
19:45:00 Kentucky 2.5
19:45:00 Florida -2
20:00:00 Colorado State -7.5
20:00:00 Air Force 7.5
20:00:00 SMU -14.5
20:00:00 Stanford 14.5
22:00:00 UNLV -7
22:00:00 Oregon State 7.5
UNLV bandwagon still accepting riders!
22:30:00 TCU 4.5
22:30:00 Utah -4.5
Illinois being ranked but not Arizona State or Wazzu is pretty dumb
also lol pollsters
They think Texas does not have a top-25 win, and that Oregon has beaten the #4 team and the #15 team. Both are 6-0. Texas is ranked higher? lol
BYU is 6-0 with two top-25 wins. Notre Dame is 5-1 with 1 top-25 win and a HOME LOSS TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. Notre Dame ranked higher
the oregon eyetest is blury and displays results much lower on the chart than their ranking
they were fortunate to escape this weekend with a win
not a horse i want to auto saddle up upon and ride for six more weeks without thinking
Texas has been dominant. I have them rated so high I was worried that I'm too high on them. They my model's line was a couple more points convservative on them against OU compared to vegas and then covered both by wide margins.
predicting the success of this texas will come down to high leverage in-game sark decisions
no clue how he responds
Boise State is good but still Oregon just barely beat them
If Oregon loses a random game, and Ohio State beats Penn State, there is a very plausible 3 way tie for first (let's not even start with Indiana in all this too)
Oregon would be 1-0, OSU 1-1 and Penn State 0-1 h2h, but h2h doesn't count 3 ways unless somebody beat both the others
So then you go to common opponents. The only common opponent between the 3 is Purdue, who all will have beaten (I assume)
So then you go to confernece record of opponents
Ohio State almost assuredly wins. Their slate is 17-10, Oregon's is 11-18, Penn State is 11-20, and OSU's picks up even more wins as Oregon and PSU both win.
So, Ohio State is then in.
Oregon and Penn State have a LOT of common opponents - Illinois, maryland, ohio state, purdue, ucla, washington and wisconsin
Penn State is undefeated against those, and if Oregon loses a random game, it's likely either @ Wisconsin, vs Washington or @ Michigan. The first two would give the tiebreak to Penn State
If its Michigan, then we compare records of Michigan/Michigan State for Oregon (currently 3-3) vs USC and Minnesota (currently 3-5) for Penn State
