Fat & Blokes Pubbington Capital LLP aka SPECIAL SE SYNDICATE
Swing state odds:
AZ: 1.42 rep, 3.35 dems
GA: 1.57 rep, 2.72 dems
MI: 1.99 rep, 1.98 dems
NV : 2.18 rep, 1.83 dems
NC: 1.59 rep, 2.68 dems
PA: 1.9 rep, 2.1 dems
WI: 2.0 rep, 1.97 dems
House Control odds:
2.12 rep, 1.86 dems
So I was just thinking about this - will throw out a few thoughts and a proposal and if you think I'm being crazy, shout me down.
Most of the models have Harris as a small favourite (between 52-55%):
fivethirtyeight - 54%
The Economist doesn't offer a %, but has her at 274 to Trumps 264 EVs
New Statesmen - 53%
The main dissenter is the Daily Mail, who has it as "Lean Trump"
Now we all know polls can be wrong and models have their issues as well - many predicted Clinton as having 99%+ on election day in 2016.
That being said, the betting markets are moving in favour of Trump, who is now 8/11 (58% favourite) on betfair .
I think my underlying assumption here is a little more faith in the underlying numbers of poll aggregators than political betting markets, where there are lots of incentives to move the lines by throwing money on one side.
Therefore, I propose lumping on Harris.
If we're getting on Harris then the earlier the better as it's always just a matter of time before Trump self destructs.
We need 8 AYEs for any proposal to pass
If you say AYE also give a % of the fund you want to invest and we'll invest the average of all of them
Man, I was going to propose an election bet, but was going to opt to go the other way. My worry is that my need for an emotional hedge is overwhelming my reason tho.
Regarding polls, they're significantly more accurate than memes would have you believe, but we're so close right now we're within the MoE in nearly all of them, which is objectively good for Trump since even with changes in methodology, i think his supporters tend to under-poll
To not get too political I think a decent chunk of people will come out of the woodworks to vote Against Kamala…
I’d feel much stronger on betting the Dems to take the house than on either Trump or Harris. North Carolina restricted to favor republicans, but Uncle Ruckus is running for governor and dragging things down while the Dems have basically 2 guaranteed seats on the pickup list in Alabama and Louisiana+New York redistricting to favor the Dems. The Dems only need 4 seats and redistricting has made it close to free money
What are the Senate odds out of curiosity. I imagine they're bigly in Republicans favor right?
Betting on a republican senate and Dem house could be well worth it. What are the odds for a two-fer on it?
So, I think the thought here is that the odds for Kamala/Trump are going to be some variation of 50/50 unless people really start noticing Trump's mental decline (which may actually be happening) or something else catastrophic. Point being, the odds aren't likely to be great.
That said, the odds are heavily against the Dems holding the Senate because of the seats up for grabs this go-round. Dems are going to lose WV and probably MT, but KS is a dark horse to go Independent and FL/TX would be closer if Kamala actually goes hard.
I guess the point I'm making is, betting on the president is a "meh" bet either way, but betting Dems to take the Senate is a real swing that might be undervalued.
* I don't do the rules regarding independents that caucus with Dems and how they define control. Since Dems would technically only have 47ish seats until they're sworn in, we could still lose even if we're "right" depending on the rules
** Again, I'm 2p2's worst bettor and not worth listening to.
* I don't do the rules regarding independents that caucus with Dems and how they define control. Since Dems would technically only have 47ish seats until they're sworn in, we could still lose even if we're "right" depending on the rules
** Again, I'm 2p2's worst bettor and not worth listening to.
this one could be insanely interesting as the Nebraska Independent candidate has strictly said he won’t caucus with either party. I honestly can’t think of how this may work since as far as I know this is completely uncharted territory. There have been 3rd party candidates winning Senate seats in the past, but they were always ideologically aligned with one of the parties.
The Dems holding the Senate *could* be worth a small wager if this Nebraska play works out (in reality Nebraska will still be Nebraska and the republican will win by a tighter than comfortable margin). But, the most likely result is a 51-49 republican senate imo.
If the 1.86 line for the Dems taking the house are still good or close to it, I think that is vastly better use of our capital given the underlying factors in their favor.
Nebraska dude's policies much more closely align with Dems, and he'll essentially be forced to caucus with one party or the other in order to get committee assignments.
That's basically the bet. I think the likely chance is what's most likely (duh): Dems lose WV/MT and get their hopes up for FL/TX/a wild card like KS but ultimately fall short and therefore lose the Senate, but the odds are so long against that I think there's some value there on the chance the gap for Dems widens by election day.
Um, why do you keep mentioning Kansas when they don’t have a senate race this year?
Either way, the republican line to take the senate is too short to be worth it and the money line for the Dems to keep the senate isn’t enough to merit much (if any) consideration imho
I like Jordan Love over 1.5 TD passes. Seems basic and the odds aren't great but the offense is rolling and Houston isn't an elite defense. Should be a high scoring game, too.
Um, why do you keep mentioning Kansas when they don’t have a senate race this year?
Either way, the republican line to take the senate is too short to be worth it and the money line for the Dems to keep the senate isn’t enough to merit much (if any) consideration imho
Meant NE obv. All Great Plains states look alike to me.
Regardless, I'd probably bet NAY on any presidential bets right now because the line is to close, but I could go for the split Congressional bets if someone wants to propose that.
I like Jordan Love over 1.5 TD passes. Seems basic and the odds aren't great but the offense is rolling and Houston isn't an elite defense. Should be a high scoring game, too.
Happy to support this at 5% of the bankroll
