AA Backdoors Nut Flush

Don't limp pre, it's bad karma. Smaller on flop, lowkey I'd just minbet and see what people decide to do. Turn fine. River is super read dependent imo, but majority of the time I'm just calling.

Probably just call and hope another V calls. A 3rd K or the Q flush might over call but nothing you beat will call a raise.

Why are we limping AA?

About what percentage of pots were limped pots? It's going to be higher, once you limp and you block AT-AK.

Train wreck

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Omaha, c'mon, you know you're gonna get flamed with this limp UTG with AA.

I probably raise-fold river. Make it $120-$150. Really doubtful anyone has K7, K6, 77, or 66. So we're just hoping to dodge six combos of KJ. Doubtful anyone behind us has a flush and will call if we just flat, and SB could have a lot of QdXx in his range.

Unlucky pre.

Just call river, you have a lot of random Adx hands, yes this one was much better than most on some previous streets but it's worse (block AK more).
Yes, there's only one person behind but there's more chance he overcalls than SB bet/calls a raise to even 60 IMO.

4 ways to the river I'm probably only raising K7+ and some Kx bluffs, without some nice reads.

I know it says SB is the main V, but...

BTN is still to act behind us and IMO is the most likely to have all of those hands (acted first after H on the flop, and H bet big).

Hero bet 2/3 pot, yes, but it was a limped pot, so the bet size is still small, and I think all the flopped 2P and sets are going to raise off at a fair frequency.

I don't love the spot, but I think our hand is strong enough to raise-fold for value.

It's also possible though admittedly not very likely that some K7/K6 folds, worried about KJ.

Yeah, I don't like the r/f for value, but the river seems like a r/f.

Might as well be asking for blackjack advice if you limp AA pre. (Here comes GG)

It is an UTG limp. It isn't like he is limp/calling or limping behind in late position. There are problems that a lot of hands are limped pots at 1/3 and how face up the 3! will be perceived. However, I wouldn't dismiss it that way.

I didn’t post the hand to debate the merits of going for a limp raise. Limping and raising pre both have pros and cons.

I do think you are still capable of answering the river question despite our disagreement pre.

If you don't have the expertise to advise on play in limped pots, then don't post in this thread.

If it is an usual situation, it should make a more interesting hand to post, whether or not it was played correctly preflop.

There clearly are situations where limping behind is best, and it is debatable whether it is OK to sometimes open limp in low stakes games.

Getting back to the suggestion to raise-fold...

This hand somewhat reminds me of one I saw played in my last session - three-ways to the river, when the obvious flush draw comes in. Nitty reg bets 1/2 pot with the nuts, next to act rec-fish flat calls with the 3rd nuts, and last to act bad reg called with the second nuts.

The last call kind of amazed me, given how obvious it was he was beat. It helped to drive home the point of how stationy so many low stakes players are with hands that are strong in absolute terms, but not relative terms.

It seems most likely to me that SB has a flush, and BTN doesn't, or if he does, it's the 2nd nut flush at best. It would be a disaster if SB is betting the 3rd nut flush, we flat call, and fold if the BTN raises. It's also a disaster if we flat call, the BTN folds, and the SB rolls over a hand that would have called a raise.

I'm fine with the hand to the river.

Any reads on SB? How are we seen?

The more clueless he is / the less nitty we are seen, I'd probably lean to a ~minraise and fold to a 3bet. The more cluefull he seems / more nitty we are seen, the more I might lean to a call hoping for an overcall.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I wouldn't miniraise. If you are going to raise, you need to make it larger.

It sucks to open AA from UTG and get multiple callers. It also sucks to raise and get no callers. Also sucks to limp and no one raises. Pick your poison.

Lately I've been experimenting with opening big PP's for a smaller size, hoping someone sees it as a sizing tell, and goes for the 3B. Not enough data to know if it's a good tactic, but it seems logical.

Either way - you asked about the river.

It's a weird spot because it is a limped pot, AND there's a 4-flush on board, AND the board is paired, AND your flop bet got three callers, AND the turn checked through. Best we can do is try to reason our way through it.

Unlikely anyone shows up with any of the better suited Qx combos in a limped pot, but it doesn't matter, since any unsuited QdXx is the 2nd nuts. Ditto for any unsuited TdXx. So our opponents could have a lot of flushes here.

I think when you bet $10 into $15 on the flop, with two diamonds on board, most low-stakes players are going to want to raise with all their 2P and sets, so I think it's reasonable to rule out K7, K6, 77, and 66. Their continuing ranges are going to be weighted towards 1P hands, mostly Kx, and draws with at least one diamond, if not two.

I'd think all the better made flushes would bet the turn, rather than check back, so the ranges don't change much on the turn. Kx made trips, and the draws are still drawing.

There are only six combos of KJ possible, but a ton of other Kx and flushes we can get value from. We won't necessarily get credit for having the Ad the way we've played this. A decent thinking player with KxQd, Kx, or even QdJx is going to understand how hard it is for us to have KJ. A bad player is going to have a hard time letting go of the 2nd nut flush or trip K's.

The way we played this, I think we have to raise for value, to an amount that doesn't induce anyone to 3B light, which I'd say is 4x-5x. If we raise to $120-$150, and get 3B, it's very unlikely to be worse for value or a bluff, unless someone has exactly KxQd, and gets out of line.

I don't get the logic behind a large river raise. In general, ~no one ever 3bet bluffs the river ever, regardless of sizing / image / multiwayness / etc. Meanwhile all a large raise does is get Qd (let alone worse) to fold at too high a frequency (plus it's also not impossible to be blasting into the nuts behind us).

GblastingintothenutsbehindmeG

I didn't say a large raise, but a miniraise is ridiculous. It causes the player to act to fold usually and reopens the action so you can get 3! without building the pot that much. Maybe flat call is better, but miniraise is ridiculous.

Now that you are here, just call the river. Unless he's a moron, he should never call a raise w/ worse.

I do have the expertise. They should raise pre.

I also have the expertise to know several of the people posting on here are bloviating about a spot they are too good to ever find themselves in (take that as the backhanded compliment it is yall)

I think the expert is GG, and so if you insist on playing this preflop range, do whatever he said and ignore everyone else.

Manufacturing an unusual spot via easily fixable errors at the very beginning of the decision tree creates the exact opposite of an interesting spot, it makes for an irrelevant spot not worth analyzing.

Its only debated by bad to decently good but not excellent players and an extremely extremely small group of pros (who all as best i can tell cant get out of midstakes anymore). Its about as debatable as the shape of the earth. Like, sure its debated by blowhards on twitter and bad faith researchers that represent 0.1% of the studied community.

People also see it on streams which include an ante and people trying to pump up their VPIP to get invited back.

Some of you may not like to LRR, but acting like it's a ridiculously fishy, EV lowering move without giving any math(!) is just LOL.