KK facing a 4-bet

for 2 hours he said

GG is stacking off. That really should be a /thread.

I have to be one of the most LAG players here, and I'm okay with folding in this spot. Definitely not absurd at 1/3.

My reasoning:

1. The UTG open to $10 may or may not be "small" for this game. If it is, that doesn't necessarily mean a weak hand. It's possible V is opening for a smaller size hoping someone 3B's.

2. I'm mostly ignoring the tattoos, and focusing on V's actions, what he shows down, etc. If anything, when I see someone who looks the way V is described, I'm going to think he's likely to be extremely tight or extremely loose, not somewhere in the middle, based on my observations of the type.

3. The 2.5x 3B jam from V2 can mostly be ignored. We can just look at hero's 5x 3B as being the "real" 3B here, and even when V only opens to $10, the $50 3B isn't small, if the usual open is to $15. Hero only starts with $400, so he's unlikely to be 3B'ing light, in a game where the usual open is $10-$15.

4. V's 4B/5B is to 1/3 his stack, pot-committing himself, but leaving enough stack depth behind for hero to jam. In hero's spot, I'd be more inclined to call if V jammed, thinking he could be jamming lower PP's, AK, AQs, and maybe even worse suited aces, hoping hero folds. The 1/3 stack 4B looks pretty nutted, precisely because hero can flat call or re-jam.

5. Hero is a 60-something WG playing tight. Show me the tatted-up 30-something that's going to 4B-light against an OMC-in-training.

Guys, guys, guys (and to ladies out there reading this): the only person with action pending in this hand has just 2bet so far. There is no way to charge the 3bettor to see any additional cards and there is no reason to make the initial raiser face a 4b cold. (It should also go without saying that our range is fully merged, so effectively overbetting is nonsense.)

I'm also seeing nothing but truisms when it comes to whether to stack off. UTG should raise with like 10% of hands tops, and UTG+1 obviously needs to be clearly ahead of that range to shove their stack cold with no FE and 7 players LTA. That's gotta be at least top 5%, maybe more like 3.75% (I know I'm talking theory, but I don't think a 60-year-old WG who bought in for 33bbs' weakness is that he's TOO aggressive.)

From that point on, the action is protected, and it makes zero (0) sense whatsoever for US to jump in cold without anything that clearly crushes both players' range. AKo is an open fold here. So are hands like TT. We're probably only jumping into the action 1.5-2% of the time.

Then UTG comes over the top of THAT with an amount that commits 133bbs with a 0% chance of scooping any more than 8bbs from Fold Equity. So THEY need to put their last $390 in with a hand that's practically racing against whatever range of OURS continues.

UTG needs to have 100% of AKs and 50% of QQ to make a <2bb profit. Again, this is one 5b war where KK>AKs, so pure folding KK is a slight overfold, but villain's sizing is enough to tilt this to a good explo fold.*

*ETA: Honestly, even this is nonsense. AA is at least a full quarter of our range, we don't need to commit the last 7/8s of our stack with anything wider than that, and that's BEFORE even considering the protection UTG+1 is providing to the pot.

It's an utterly absurd fold, for the reasons already detailed above.

It's a lot more likely to be a weak hand than a strong hand, given general player tendencies at live low stakes poker.

Villain has poker tattoos dude, and he's been playing TAG thus far. He's obviously seriously into the game, meaning it's likely he has good knowledge of theory and/or watches high stakes streams like HCL where good players are 4betting all kinds of wacky stuff on a regular basis.

Hero should have light 3bets in almost all situations. This hand is one of of the few where he doesn't, due to the second villain being all in for $25. But that really doesn't change that much with regard to how hero responds to main villain's 4bet. It just means that the ranges are a little tighter and more linear than they would be usually.

The 4bet size is huge given that villain is in position; in my experience at low stakes poker this is AK a large portion of the time, but it can also be hands like QQ and JJ where villain is "putting hero on AK". Needless to say, villain should be using the same size with all hands that he's 4betting, so that hero can't get any reads on his hand strength due to the bet size used. Villain is certainly pot-committing himself with most of his range, and that's fine. Hero should be very happy to get stacks in here preflop and not have to play any further streets out of position.

Young players get out of line all the time and are in general a lot more aggressive than older players; more inclined to 3bet/4bet light and put in raises with wacky combos. And a lot of them don't pay much attention to the player type they're up against, either.

It's a very simple spot and a very simple plus EV jam.

I ignored it. I thought he was just having a TIA.

I'm 61 years old, and it even sounds odd to me to call a 30-something grown man a "young player," as if he's some 22 y.o. who's not yet fully cooked.

FWIW - everyone seems to be getting overly entrenched on their positions. Way too much beligerance and talking past each other here.

I don't think it's a slam dunk decision either way (which presumably is why OP posted).

I'm on the tighter sided and I think GG expresses it best with it's a "Sigh Shove", but for those who find a fold, I don't think that's terrible either.

30 is young dude, be serious. Are the decisions you make now, in poker and in life, similar to the decisions you made when you were 30?

OP

The micro-economic definition of "worthless information" was getting that the information you got has no power to change your decision.

Did you get any "worthwhile information" to help change what you might do in future situations?

The older I get (now 52), the older the people I think of as "young" get.

I mostly had my $hlt together by the time I was 30 (mostly, but also just barely), but a lot of today's 30-something's don't.

When I see a younger person covered in tats, my first thought is a sarcastic, "your look just screams, 'hire me!'."

I'm not anti-tattoo. I have a couple (that I've come to regret). I'm just realistic about the likely lifestyle of and career options for someone who made the conscious decision to spend untold thousands of dollars and who knows how many hours to advertise to the world that they don't give AF what the world thinks of them.

Sure, there are some who break the mold, but they're generally exceptions, not the rule. You don't see too many peeps covered in tats working on solutions to the world's biggest challenges.

I can't remember the last >50bb 4B or call of a >130bb 5B at 1/3 that wasn't revealed to be QQ+/AK, but the ranges are weighted heavily towards AA/KK, and we heavily block AK.

KK isn't a mandatory 5B-jam for >130bb's, ever, and certainly not in a spot like this, against V as described. If there are ever spots to let KK go, this is one of them.

https://youtu.be/ZbwFNR-MpFM?si=3Oyqx1lkVYji88mI

YouTube

Should You Ever FOLD POCKET KINGS Preflop??

Don't fold kings ( unless insanely deep)

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk

You can hardly count the $25 jam as a 3bet here, and the $50 raise as a 4bet. Better way to look at it is that the $50 raise is a larger than usual 3bet.

We would be shipping $350 into a pot of $226, where villain has to call off $250 more. Certainly, villain's range needs to be (and is) much wider than just AA for this to be a profitable jam. In all likelihood it includes AA, KK, QQ, AK, and a small amount of JJ and TT (in addition to random BS that players occasionally turn up with in spots like this. Remember - villain isn't some kind of machine, he's a low stakes player who in all probability makes all kinds of weird emotional decisions/mistakes on a regular basis).

It's not necessary to do that in order to conclude that KK is a profitable shove here.

Sure, it's a protected pot, that's a valid point/factor, and it means ranges are tighter. KK is still very easily a profitable jam.

Let's pretend the 25 raise is just a call. In which case it's a 5x squeeze. Normal size but you could go a little bigger, which I personally prefer with slightly more dead money in there, but either way you absolutely can't say a 5x squeeze OOP is large.

But it's a squeeze BB vs UTG. You should be extremely tight here. If UTG is remotely competent he will realise this. So when he comes over the top, what's his range? QQ+, maybe JJ. AK, maybe a few AQ, maybe some A5s or similar bluff hands. We're not saying he's wider than that without a read that he's wild, surely?

Then if we are shoving, which of those hands do we expect to call? Which worse hands are going to call your insanely tight range jam to make it profitable? You've got to be very sure he's (1) not just calling your squeeze with QQ and (2) calls off your jam, and both of those are far from certain.

Tough to stereotype based on "tattoos" and nice job using your observation of villain's betting patterns rather than appearance.
I remember being told by a sleeve & neck tattoo guy that I wasn't getting my value bets called because I don't have enough tattoos. He knew how to work his image, and when he played back at strength, he had the goods.

Trying not to do that ... esp. as I'd like to know why you (OP and other are making this fold).
You only started 130bb deep, I assume everyone is not just always folding KK above 50bb ...

Yeh, I expected people to respect that. But OP thought it was a troll or brain fart? Would obv. be very interested in if GG has 2nd thoughts.

Point #5 is def. something ... like if we assume V "knows" we aren't bluffing, or "overvaluing" a hand like 99 here then it makes it nuttier.
And I guess your point with #4 is that AK very rarely 4bets to this size and instead just shoves ... you said more inclined to call a shove ... but how much, from say 25% shove KK in this spot vs. 50% calling a shove or like 5% shove KK here and 80% calling a shove?

Even assuming UTG range is close to correct, I completely disagree about UTG+1's ranges.
This guy bought in short and is now down to 8bb or whatever.
88 might well be crushing his shove range, and even if it's only flipping it's still pretty good if we get V1 out of the way.

I think maybe this is where everyone is diverging, because if V2's range is always "good" here I can understand a fold a lot more because our range is much smaller.

Almost nobody at 1-3 is doing something different with AKo and AKs in this spot as V1.
I could maybe buy that as a population players will more often "just shove" AK but will get greedy and only raise to 150 with KK+ ... are you agreeing with docovil on that? (and the same raise/calling % questions?)

Also not sure what you think V1 is doing with QQ here? Folding to your $50 iso preflop?

I shove, 2hours tight play are not enough for me to justify a fold with KK in this spot.

I also really don't like the 4bet IP if the plan is to fold to a 5bet.

it really depends on the type of tattoos. if he has poker cards tattooed on a finger I shove. if he has any kind of face tattoos I shove.

That’s what I’m saying, yes. A fold exploits their enormous sizing tell.

I mean, flatting is the obviously correct play.

Yeah, for whatever it's worth, I said this was a close spot from the jump, and I don't think it's terrible to jam. I just reject the idea that it MUST be a jam, and therefore it's a horrible fold.

I think opens and 3B's at low-stakes can be all over the map. But once we get into 4B's and 5B's, we need to be more cognizant of our table image, and more confident in our player reads.

So, in this instance, hero being over 60, with what I'm assuming is a tight image, and assuming V is at least somewhat aware, V has to think that hero's 5B-jamming range is basically just AA/KK, and V knows this before he 4B's to 1/3 his stack. V may also be aware that his appearance may get him loose action.

The point I was making about V 4B'ing 1/3 of his stack vs just jamming is also somewhat player dependent, but in general, I think a lot of low stakes players facing a 3B will spaz-jam pre with some big PP's, AK, and some suited aces, rather than flat call and risk making a "wrong" decision post-flop, and tell themselves it's just a cooler if they get snapped off by AA/KK.

When someone who seems competent 4B's less than all-in at low-stakes, especially when they're not starting out fairly deep, and especially when their 4B is 1/3 or more of their starting stack size, my assumption is that they're never folding, and they want us to jam, so they can snap us off.

I really hate that "it's just a cooler" mentality, when applied to spots that aren't unavoidable.

Here's an approximate range with which hero might want to isolate/go after the dead money:

Note that this is 65 combos, and the $25 jam from villain 2 is effectively "bonus" money that incentivizes hero to 3bet wider than he usually would against UTG, as the EV is higher.

When villain 4bets, he risks $140 to win $87. Therefore the MDF for hero is 87/227 = 38.3%, or 25 combos.

Even if we tighten this up a little to account for rake and the fact that it's a protected pot, of course KK is still a mandatory continuing hand. Not only that, but it's a clearly profitable jam vs UTG's 4betting range. Hero absolutely has to continue with QQ+ and AKs at the bare minimum, otherwise he becomes directly exploitable as a result of being such a long way off the MDF.

Clearly only continuing with AA here is a fundamental mistake.

Yes, it sucks when they have AA and we get it in behind. Sometimes you have to pay them off in order to remain unexploitable yourself.

You are misapplying the minimum defense principle. UTG stands to win $25 from fold equity alone.

This is the mistake you're making in treating the protected pot like a "factor" that just tightens up ranges a bit. It is a FUNDAMENTAL DYNAMIC of the hand. As a result, you're just straight up using the wrong EV calc.

I also disagree with the numerator you use in your calc. Assuming they don't have a 5b/fold range when they put 40% of their stack in, they are effectively risking $390.

I, of course, also disagree quite strongly that we should have a 5% cold 4b frequency UTG v UTV+1 v BB, but I'm not sure we're gonna get anywhere with that argument.

Finally, I've made it clear that my recommended play is an exploitative deviation from theoretically optimal play. IE: I am purposefully making myself exploitable in order to optimize EV against this particular player's assumed strategy. Disagree with my sizing read all you want, but pointing out that I'm opening myself up to exploitation is (again) misunderstanding the theory.

When he 4bets, UTG stands to win $25 outright from hero, plus the opportunity to go heads up against UTG+1's 8bb all-in meme range for a $76 pot, sure. From a practical point of view there is no difference between that and a "regular pot" when you're talking about hero's MDF. Hero is just defending his opportunity to remain in the pot, keep his equity, play for the dead money, etc - and the relevant factor remains the range of hands with which he 3bets and must then defend vs a 4bet.

I'm afraid you disagreeing with the numerator doesn't change the math involved at that decision point for villain. They are not risking $390, even if they are committing themselves with the bet (because, for one thing, hero can fold/call the $150 in response).

As indicated, hero in incentivized to 3bet/squeeze wider than usual due to UTG+1's 8bb all-in meme range - which at low stakes is going to be wide and wonky.

If you're folding KK to a 4bet here, then you're most definitely exploitable and leaving money on the table.

If you wanted to you could adjust the MDF calculation as follows:

When villain 4bets, he risks $140 to win $25 + (his equity vs UTG+1's 8bb all-in range * $76).

Let's say he has 70% equity vs UTG+1's 8bb all-in range. This would mean getting heads up against it is worth $53.20.

Therefore when he 4bets to $150 he's risking $140 to win $78.20. The MDF for hero to stop villain profiting directly from the bet would then be:

78.2/218.2 x 100 = 35.8%, or 21.48 combos of the original 65 with which he 3bet.

So hero can fold an extra 3.5 combos as a result, compared to what I posted initially above. His continuing range is still going to include KK, and could for example get rounded up to 22 combos for simplicity, as that would be exactly QQ+ and AKs.