NL25 - AA faces donk line in 3BP

I'd be tempted to raise/gii flop. Probably calling AP. If this is nutted make note

One of the mental models I’ve heard Doug Polk and Bart Hanson mention in their videos is “if you can beat even a little bit of their value range it’s a call”. That’s JJ, QQ, and Tx. Plus there’s the few combos of AK,AQ, and AJ he could be bluffing with. Plus if we’re afraid of him having QJ then he has KJ and KQ and could be bluffing those as well. We lose to 9 combos of sets and like 2 combos of T9 suited. I’m calling.

I would raise turn, you don't want to give free cards to his draws also there are some rivers where JJ/AT will slow down.

If he has a set you are losing stack wherever you do, so unless you have info that this line means nuts don't focus on that.

Donks are interesting.

When you study MDA for 3BPs for regs you realize that not all donk lines are the same.

The strongest donk line is the xc-xc-donk river line.

And the line villain took here is the weakest line.

The donk-bet-bet is overbluffed, especially in wider formations. I'd jam river for value.

You jam river because it is over bluffed??

It’s merged and it’s unlikely Tx folds. I wouldn’t be surprised if JJ is in his range as well.

Interested in results OP

This line screams "low overpair wants protection" to me, because im that kind of donkey who would do that (see my recent thread on 88 as an overpair in this forum)

Feels like T9, would say can also be overpairs like JJ or QQ, maybe some kind of random Tx in range

Like DooDoo was saying this is kind of a weak line, you’d imagine they would just check raise their sets and such and pray to be up against an overpair

Fish have JJ/QQ/KK as well.

If he is a reg I would say it’s close but I’d still jam.

If he is a fish it’s a no brainer jam.

Thanks guys for the discussion, all valuable points. Really helpful for me!

xc-xc-donk is such a "primitive" line 😃 good to know it's the strongest according to MDA, will save me some chips. Will treat the river donk as if it was a check/raise on turn.

As for this hand, I uploaded it to GTOwiz(recently subscribed).
Flop: call 67%, raise to 13.25 bb 30%
Turn: call 65%, raise to 39bb 21%, to 51bb 12,5%
River: AI 95%, call 5%

But I guess GTO assumes he folds 33 pre.

Results:

River: ($18.09) 8♥ (2 players)
MP bets $12.60, Hero calls $12.60

Total pot: $43.29 (Rake: $2.25)

Showdown:
MP shows 3♣ 3♥ (three of a kind, Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 91%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

CO (Hero) shows A♠ A♦ (a pair of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 9%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

MP wins $41.04

I feel a lot better about calling river now. Even if shove is the correct play in theory. Kinda tilted me during my session, as my monster under the bed intutition was screaming at me that this is a set.

If V is a reg, probably fold river. It’s unlikely to be weak enough imo. Maybe you have monsters but in this scenario I think it’s warranted. The reg vs fish difference in these lines can be pretty big.

Do you really think a 25-17 player doesn’t realize you have overpairs here?

Formation also not ideal.

To clear things up a bit about villain. I should have included the hand sample. He had 25/17 after 15 hands, based on GG internal hud. 15 hands is a nearly meaningless sample, but large enough to know whether villain is a whale or not. Especially if he doesn't limp or 3bet with lolsizing. I tag such players as tight as a precaution until more info. Now I have 42 hands on him in H2Note, he ended up with 37/17. That's irrelevant though, as I didn't have that info at the time.

I was also 90% sure wasn't a reg, as every day I check GGPool and tag everyone as reg who plays 4+ tables until further info. This guy was not on that list. As I play high volume lately, it's highly unlikely he is a new reg who just now started grinding here.

Looks like a super underbluffed line tbh given the bet sizings, and I wouldn’t consider raising. Probably would turbo fold the river.

There we are OP. Your options in this spot are:

- jam
- call
or

- turbo fold

Take your pick. You could also technically employ a monkey to play this spot. Or a dog or, even... a tree. Just don't die before the timeout.

😃
Must be a 0 EV spot then. Gotta RNG that sh*t. Or just fold as folding is always 0 EV.