NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

Ole Miss already has 2 losses. Kentucky and LSU.

12-1 Miami is a lock

I think it's more likely than not that the ACC gets multiple bids

Miami is 58% to win out, Clemson is 33% to win out and 43% to finish with one more loss, SMU is 39% to win out and 41% to finish with one more loss

So, there's a good chance that two or (or even all three!) win out, in which case you'd get an 11-1 vs 12-0 team in the champ game. I think the committee will be loath to punish teams for playing in the CG, so it seems likely both of those teams would be in

Then, you have tons of outs with Miami going 12-0, and losing to 10-2 Clemson or SMU or Pitt or whatever in the CG, where the auto bid goes to a team that would've have gotten an at large, but Miami gets an at large at 12-1

Fair enough, appreciate the response. I just don't think any of the ACC teams are very good. Miami also keeps playing with fire, so we'll see if they can actually make it to the CG undefeated.

Vegas has Miami and Clemson rated about the same as Penn State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Notre Dame and LSU.

SMU is a notch down, but compares favorably with all the best B12 teams. A couple points worse than LSU/ATM, but a couple points better than Missouri, for comparison.

I’m mostly staying away from tonight’s games:

Liberty hasn’t covered this spread all year even against Cambell (who Sagarin has within a few points of Kennessaw) but they’ve also played just one game the past month so who knows what to expect.

J’ville St’s offense has been awesome in CUSA and now takes on FBS’s worst defense, but their defense has been hit or miss as has the MTSU offense.

Just too much variance for me.

Um guys, Kennesaw State (0-6) is beating Liberty (5-0). 27 point dogs at home. Fun way to start the week

You can update your liberty odds to zero

offshore seeing that Kennesaw opened at +1500 M/L....hope someone got some of that

I know I said Liberty was drawing dead to playoff, but this is not exactly what I meant

KSU 1st ever win vs FBS, now 1-10

bibberty

👍

Not gonna lie, never even considered considering it. That's a really juiced number though, a 27 point dog should at least be above +2000.

Lol Liberty.

Gratz to Kennesaw State on finally getting a win. The beatings continued until More Owls improved

I don't see the thought process in expanding the playoff if they were not going to sweep in all the 1 or 2 loss teams from the big conferences.

For the South, that's definitely a top 2 loss in Kennesaw history.

HOOTY HOOT, *****ES!

That’s basically what I was implying by asking about the ACC. I think it’s quite possible. We saw the committee snub the ACC just last year, but not to revisit that debate.

I haven’t gone through all of the schedules, but I’d guess it’s likely there will be more than 11 1 or 2 loss teams from the big conferences. Large conferences and unbalanced scheduling.

👍

Meaningful games tonight!

Syracuse is 5-1 with an OOC win at UNLV and is 2-1 in the ACC with wins over GT and @NC St with a home loss to Stanford

Their remaining schedule:
@ Pitt
v VT
@ BC
@ Cal
v Uconn
v Miami

If they lose tonight, they are basically dead for the playoffs and ACCG, but so far Fran Brown's first season has gone pretty well

Pitt is 6-0 with two creampuff wins (Kent State and Youngstown) and four mid tier games: @ Cincy, v WV, v Cal and @ UNC
(Pitt has caused me a lot of pain personally this year)

Three of those four wins required some amount of WIM and/or divine intervention:

They were down 27-6 at Cincy with 16 minutes left and came back to win 28-27 (2% win probability)
They were down 34-24 with 3 minutes left against WV, facing a 2nd and 30 from the 40 and won 38-24 (3% win probability)
Cal attempted a go-ahead FG with 1:50 left from their 22 yard line and missed (ok fine this one was 44% win prob, but it still hurt)

Their remaining schedule:
@ SMU
v UVA
v Clemson
@ Louisville
@ BC

With the ability to knock both SMU and Clemson out of the race, they control their own destiny. However, they're only 74% to beat UVA, 28% at Louisville and 54% at BC. So even if they do upset SMU and Clemson, this game is critical to their chances as it drastically reduces the odds that they lose two and fall right back out of the ACCCG.

Also, you can bet that Clemson and SMU are actually rooting FOR Pitt. A Pitt win slightly reduces their chances of making the ACCCG, but it also greatly increases the chances of Pitt finishing 9-3 and ranked. In the scenario where they lose to Clemson and SMU, Pitt is 13% to finish 9-3 with a loss tonight, but 39% to finish 9-3 or 10-2 with a win.

The committee isn't as dumb as the AP/Coaches poll though

9-3 Washington/Wisconsin/Florida/Arkansas is always getting in over 10-2 Mizzou/SMU/Indiana/Illinois

The differences in schedules are absolutely wild. People are shitting on the ACC, but Mizzou plays an easier sched than most ACC teams

ODU is basically eliminated from the Sun Belt race if they lose tonight. They'd be 2-2 with a h2h loss against 4-0 GASO.

If they WIN, it's wide open:
3-1 ODU h2h win over gaso, h2h loss to coastal
3-1 gaso with h2h wins over marshall and jmu h2h loss to odu
2-1 marshall with h2h loss to gaso, gets jmu at home
1-2 jmu with h2h over coastal, but h2h loss to gaso, gets marshall at home

This has swung to UCF -2ish.

Even in college football, when was the last team a 7-0 team was an underdog to a 3-4 team this late in season? Seems insane.