How to combat being card dead
Hi all,
There’s variance in winning when you have a set against a flush draw. But there’s also variance in card distribution. When you are in long stretches of being card dead (100s of hours), do you alter your game by VPIPing more marginal hands or do you stay strong and play tight?
Thanks,
DT
16 Replies
I played last night at the local casino for 7+ hours. My VPIP had to be below 20% so I was playing tight. The best pre-flop holdings I had were QQ and I got it in good against A/K off and he hit his case A on the flop and rivered another A just for kicks. This has been the story for most of the year for me. I've been playing poker for over 20 years, and I would say that I have a decent understanding of the game. I host a home game of he mixed variety etc. I had a very profitable session two weeks ago walking out of the Casino with $1,400.00. I've read and watched numerous pro's takes on positional attack and tightened ranges in these low 1/3$ stakes games, but man, do I just grab my chips and go if I've been sitting for hours and J9 suited starts to look like AK suited? These "card deserts" are killer and have been the status quo for me most of this year. I know that down swings can last a while but after last weeks profitable win I thought I had gotten out of the woods for a little while. Nope, it was all a MIRAAAAAAGE! Advice is appreciated and very much welcomed!
I played last night at the local casino for 7+ hours. My VPIP had to be below 20% so I was playing tight. The best pre-flop holdings I had were QQ and I got it in good against A/K off and he hit his case A on the flop and rivered another A just for kicks. This has been the story for most of the year for me. I've been playing poker for over 20 years, and I would say that I have a decent understanding of the game. I host a home game of he mixed variety etc.
I hate to say this, but you don't have a decent understanding of the game, or at least the role that variance plays. Good players can go through downswings despite playing decently, and bad players sometimes leave sessions as a large winner.
In addition, being card dead for maybe 3 hours is literally less than 100 hands. It's hard to give advice about how to handle these periods, since it's difficult to suggest strategies to fight impulsivity and possible immaturity.
...Good players can go through downswings despite playing decently, and bad players sometimes leave sessions as a large winner.
In addition, being card dead for maybe 3 hours is literally less than 100 hands. It's hard to give advice about how to handle these periods, since it's difficult to suggest strategies to fight impulsivity and possible immaturity.
There's great advice on how to, in this now-2 years old thread. Lot of users I miss reading here, tbh. But things like, take the time to concentrate and build up your mental map of the other players. Their ranges, aggression, stickiness, pre and post. Can they make a large bet with total air, and does that bet make sense anyway with their perceived range? Or do they need to actually have some value? Etc.
Or watch the game on TV, and be sociable. Everyone usually likes Sociable Guy vs having to deal with Hoodie/Air Pods/Sunglasses mad they can't grind multitable online as much as they used to.
Oops, and AF is totally right about variance too. 100 hands is a laughable sample. But, if it's the best info we have...
Oops, and AF is totally right about variance too. 100 hands is a laughable sample. But, if it's the best info we have...
I think you're mixing together two of my points. I mentioned the 100 hands not in regards to sampling about his skills/profits, but about how being card dead for 3 hours is an occasional, expected occurrence precisely because of variance.
I like to threaten the dealer with a gun
I am there right now. Card dead and then getting my AK crushed by 44 and my AJ crushed by 82o. Just stay patient and try to play your A game. It's one long game! I told my table on Sunday that I will eventually win $1 million from them -- I don't know why I wouldn't 😉
I know this is a couple of years old, but there's an important point in here - a weakness for me and probably many others. When card dead and I wake up with a big hand I can often feel a sense of entitlement to the pot - so it can be more of a struggle to lay down a big hand postflop (and it can be tempting to barrel at will when you don't flop your AK or whatever).
I don't start playing trash hands when card dead, but I'm very happy turning my 50% hands into 100% hands or whatever, just to keep busy and engaged. Probably going to be getting involved with more offsuit Broadways, suited connectors and so on. Probably trying to keep my VPIP (per hour or so) roughly consistent no matter what hands I get dealt. But that's just to keep the enjoyment aand keep me sharp and maybe be a little bit Banana-experimental.
Fold!
I think you're mixing together two of my points. I mentioned the 100 hands not in regards to sampling about his skills/profits, but about how being card dead for 3 hours is an occasional, expected occurrence precisely because of variance.
Well, it's a small sample for evaluating all of those traits, as I think you've pointed out in a few threads. We really can't say on a first impression of 100 hands, whether an opponent is truly an OMC, Laggy Reg, Tagfish, etc...though we will have some data for making some determination about their deviation from a "typical" LLNLHE player. How much faith to put in that determination...is another question. As many threads here show. "I would never have expected X from that player type. Wow." Is common from me, reading a lot of these.
Nor can we evaluate without a great deal of difficulty, whether a dip in our win rate over that short a period is due to variance or indications of one or another leak developing in our game.
I thought the strats in the thread were useful for helping keep us enthused and engaged with what was going on.
Stick to the plan. Tight is the way where I play.
I'm not sure which game you are asking about. I don't know PLO5, but I'm guessing I don't change my range much when card dead (harder to bluff, maybe when the nuts win more often?)
In Holdem, I will change my range every hand depending on the opponent. Most opponents will tell me when to bluff, and when not to.
I find it tough. Sometime I will play a game looking around trying to see if I can guess the action of someone based on body language, or predict what someone will show up with and score, because otherwise I bring out my phone.
As for playing off the image, yeah it's tempting, but at low stakes a lot of people aren't paying attention (or don't make adjustments) to the fact you've folded 30 hands in a row (there's a reason those OMCs on Social Security can still make money on the AA/KK they wait around all day to play). If you do want to play a liitle looser, than at least spend some time working out who is actually making adjustments to the players.
You need to go in with the right mindset. If you head to the room with your head filled with big splashey pots you wpn't play well.
In the NFL, they call it taking what the play gives you. Treat poker the same.
Nothing wrong with changing seats or tables, if either is an option. It may not help, but it can't hurt, aside from having to sit in a new game and start developing opponent reads from scratch again.
Someone mentioned entitlement tilt when dealt a premium hand. It's real. I've found that letting myself get involved occasionally with a more speculative hand helps dissipate the frustration of folding every hand for multiple orbits, if not hours, which leads to getting married to that big PP and going broke with it.
Playing, or even better, winning the occasional pot, even a small one, with a sketchy hand can make it easier to stick to the basic strat of playing a tighter range.
There's you get a whole boatload of Q2off preflop type of card dead and the worst kind the flop whiffs your hand and smashes opponents range over and over again. That's the more dangerous kind getting in trouble deviating from good play.
The first kind I have no problems just keep folding and watching as somebody said hockey on TV. The second you really have to control your emotions and play smart in the moment.