KK vs limper facing big river bet

Against a rando for whom you have no real reads, I can't see how we can fold this, especially since we're near the tippy-top of our range.

I can’t believe how dead these tables are at the Aria. Late morning/early afternoon on a Friday. I’ve been on 2 different tables over the last 4 hrs and there has only been one all-in, and it was by a short stack. Nits and grinders.

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I mean, this is a thread, and she doesn't appear to care about the money, but at what point with an OP should we be concerned we're running into 44/22? If at 160 bb, we're all, 'top of range, gotta call?' Does this thought change at 300-400 or more bb?

160 bigs is a lot. But if we're calling down on a complete rainbow turn that should've mostly missed her except for sets, we probably need to call this river. Gulp.

Tbf, she doesn't sound like either from your description. Was it 44 or 22?

I'm just trying to figure out whether this goes in the cooler bucket, or if we should be folding this on or before the river.

Go to the Bellagio. I laugh when people talk about the "tough" super-soft 1-3 game.

It's dry as dust, she 2.5x raised H's 1/3 cbet on flop, and fired off an 80% bet on turn, and nearly pots river. How many randoms are doing that? Just seems like "How to Play a Set v an Overpair 101."

But again, this is a thread, not taking into account all of the times this happens and it's someone spazzing/falling in love with top pair. So I dunno.

Do we have anything else on her, or her play? e.g. is she GG and limping her whole range, so something like AQ could be in there?

In a vaccuum, I think I'm probably folding turn. I think something like KQ, or QJ would just call, and there are no obvious draws here.

Can't really fold to the flop raise, but when the big bet comes in on the turn, this smells a lot like 22, 44.

I'm assuming QX and sets play the turn the same way. I don't think she has much of a bluffing range, but she has to have some AQ/KQs/QJs here.

I saw V sit down at her first table about an hour earlier, and she struck me as a regular player. I didn’t see any hands played.

I was at the Bellagio last night and the 1/3 game was super soft. Didn’t play long because i moved to the 5/10. That game wasn’t great, at least a couple pros, one was pretty aggressive.

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You beat value, call

She's not played a hand or you've not seen her showdown a hand?

If she's not played a hand, I'm turbofolding turn. If that's not the case, what's her open-limp vs. open-raise frequency. Trying to use that to deternine if things like AQ or KQs are in her range?

Agree not much bluffing range here, but I'm discounting good Queens (though not rulling them out), because

a) She open limped
b) I don't think many regs are raising flop with things like KQ or QJ, or trying for 3 streets of value.

Also AA is not inconceivable here.

Being a reg doesn't mean she's good, as evidenced by the open limp-call. Nonetheless, on such a dry board 150bb effective, KK probably needs to make a decision on the flop whether to continue, since the turn and river bets were neither excessive nor unexpected on this brick runout.

I noted in a prior response that it's OK to make an exploitative fold, although we really have no objective evidence to suggest that this rando almost always has a set.

I had not seen her play a single hand.

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Youre honestly probably dead on the flop raise, however crazy that is, but what else can she have but 22/44? There are basically no draws, and very few people are strong enough to raise 1 pair. Id still call flop but its a crying call. Good chance i fold turn, definitely folding river unless i think this player is capable of doing this with top pair.

This is the literal worst possible non Axx flop for your hand vs this action. If it was 742 you could see 88-QQ maybe at least. Or 65. If it was JTx or FD maybe there are semibluffs. Almost nobody ever gets here with less than KQ and not a lot of players play KQ AQ this strong,

So nobody is ever all in, anyway should we put in almost our entire stack calling down with 1 pair?

tbh think you lose here if u call, must see river vs everyone

Yeesh. I don't think I could find a fold here. At least not easily. Yeah, she could have all the flopped sets, but she could also have every combo of AQ.

I see a ton of older Asian dudes who are just insane degen gamblers, but I don't see too many older Asian women getting way out of line. I hate to pay this off, but I think our hand is just too good to fold.

After this hand I played with her for a while. I tried to talk to her and it took a while to get her attention as she had earbuds in under her hair. Despite this limp, she had a low VPIP the rest of the session.

I didn’t think too long, sort of made an annoyed call, thinking I’m probably not good here but I have to call. In retrospect I should have thought longer, tried to get a read, and maybe could have found a fold.

She showed 22.

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AQ probably doesn't limp/call and probably doesn't play it so strongly postflop. Either she has a set or she is running a 3 barrel bluff or overplaying something.

ok so 2 things

i think this is a call almost anywhere in the world except for las vegas. obv there are villains u call this vs there too but description dont really seem like one of them - regular loose passive player that buys in deep, open limps, and table changes.

i think your flop strategy and maybe line in the hand as a whole is flawed. i dont really just mean the river call line. i think the flop decision to go with a tiny bet isn't great (if you look at why you're doing it and then constrast that vs playing the hand vs loose passive who imp called 6x on a q42 board that we dont expect to raise worse hands youll get where i'm going pretty quickly) and im kind of tempted to lead the river for some size as played despite it being entirely unorthodox / not approved just bc i dont think she actually bets with a worse hand

this is one of the spots all the study and range work in the world dont apply. telling yourself im top of range, i have to call here, blah blah, back to 1/3 you go.

anyways. good luck coming up with comparable pre ranges and her sizing scheme is sub optimal (maybe not since she got pure called by KK) but

this relies on here bluffing off with 43 53 a3 hands at some frequency (gl with that) and some trace amounts of Qx that she does this with i guess bc blocker effects / to not be super polarized. but it leads to solver wanting to call down with good Qx vs the overpairs. i dont know if this mimics reality since to call down in this spot irl you really need one of 2 things to go right
1) either the opponent is bluffing way way too much to the point where your cards dont really matter. think of either this player type on tilt or just crazy maniac. if this was the case the thread wouldn't need to be a thing
2) you need them to not know what they're doing and do this too depolarized / with one pair hands where you'd have a strong preference to either 3b the flop / raise early streets or just call down with overpairs bc u unblock qx and beat more value / have more equity

regretably neither one of these seemed to be the case based on villain description - she play there every day and buy in deep so she likely to be bad in a loose passive way. also she table changed and is a reg so she probably isn't there to (intentionally) lose like in either one of those strats blah blah

posted the river for the guys saying hand is 2 good 2 fold, t0p of range, etc. lot of guys with 0 study time very certain of equilibrium strategy in an entirely unstudied spot lol. this also is pretty clearly not a spot you should be looking to play defensively

dunno if u guys listen to podcasts but theres new mechanics of poker with this guy lukabrate and he says empathy is the most important skill in poker and i think about that often. but i think that applies here

Interesting that gto calls with A4 more than KK here though, but sorta makes sense, its either a set or nothing (also its never gonna be nothing vs a real life opponent so in practice you fold A4 AND KK)