grinders future outlook
High-stakes is like just a dream few people succeed getting into , the variance will mostly crush you at around nl2k which happened to me and therefore I sort of gave up on something which seemed rather fueled by illusion rather than reality.
Realizing this was one of the important turning points of my career where I came more aware on the EV of the seat I sit at rather than trying to "battle" at whatever the game is.
In poker you pay a fee called the rake. This means if you are not having a very significant edge over your opponent you are losing money playing that game.
You might perceive yourself very high but if you run in your game hundreds of buy-ins below your EV would you view yourself the same?
I encountered a period like this and I did also look back into hands played in the past judging them terribly misplayed.
My favourite game is a game of headsup with an OMC who folds as many of his buttons as possible.
We can play plo , plo5 or holdem and it still remains my favorite game.
You get old.
You grow a bit of a beer belly.
You get a bit banned from the 2+2s.
But your still the same guy you want to give something back.
You won a lot of money.
I won a lot of money.
Its a great thing.
I only won half a million max over this time and most of it is gone already.
Life is expensive.
Life is expensive.
That one is easy! Open tighter range! Dont call 3-bet with marginal hands!
What is this?
Every day take my time to wake up. Live quite healthy , exercise , sleep normal ... feel like my brain is frying...
no interest to poker.
zero . Nada .
If i take some time off feel same way when get back to it after a while.
I turned 30 years I expired.
Time to take a break from poker and quit these forums, no value.
What is this?
Every day take my time to wake up. Live quite healthy , exercise , sleep normal ... feel like my brain is frying...
no interest to poker.
zero . Nada .
If i take some time off feel same way when get back to it after a while.
I turned 30 years I expired.
Time to take a break from poker and quit these forums, no value.
U got to work harder U ****ing bitch
nah its what it is peak somewhere and person like me loses the motivation after also grinding something that declines each year is hard mentally
never going to do any sims anymore or study poker, just not gonna happen
live-poker is the only value route if want to continue with this profession and its mentally quite difficult one also
i will get a pair of good earphones set a certain schedule follow it and ignore the rest
not sure how long i can keep going bcz honestly i could drive a truck or pick trash from a park 8hrs a day or study accounting for 1 year and be an accountant
im just like most poker guys thinking somewhere in future there is some huge gains but even if there would be it might not really make me happier
working 9/5 would make me a bitch though and i don't see how it could be at this point something that would pay me more than pokers
9/5 is slow mental suicide wtf
memento mori - remember you will die
got to take risks at this point learn to leverage some alt-coins gamble with them go with instincts try get it to few hundred K then play the live-poker at high-stakes
if it does not work out can still play these 2/4 / 5/T live rings
i got to do something and its not s&p 500 investing
1) get a pair of good earphones set a certain schedule follow it and ignore the rest
2) take risks at this point learn to leverage some alt-coins gamble with them go with instincts try get it to few hundred K then play the live-poker at high-stakes
The alt leverage is basically same bet as betting that btc will make a parabolic run soon.
We aren't far from 2021 peak . Those index funds etc. buying . I really don't care about these things but somehow think it would be very logical that we make some 90-110k btc run and the alts will explode and then comes a crash again.
So with my capital doing an alt-coin leverage could easily set me up to make millions literally.
I don't know.
Have to think about it.
where next and why now?
back to 55k obviously by all probability
and after that eventually towards lower lows
greedy will get always burned
be patient and buy when it drops
i think we will have a 40k btc and alt-coin crash like total crash , then btc parabolic run 100k+ and alt coins follow up run
but right now betting on alt coin run is bit crazy bet on whatever when its cheap now its not
We aren't far from 2021 peak
Those index funds etc. buying
would be very logical that we make some 90-110k btc run and the alts will explode
back to 55k obviously by all probability
and after that eventually towards lower lows --- fear---
im convinced its a good bet to bet on alts but if with leverage hard to time it pay interest etc. no idea
i keep my alt bag and wait for the next cycle
Never seen a thread with so much input from OP and hardly any from anyone else haha.
Interesting stuff though.
Never seen a thread with so much input from OP and hardly any from anyone else haha.
Interesting stuff though.
This thread is like this ... This thread is like that... Where is Your own thread!
I wrote this in 2 weeks and was able to change many things to a better direction in life because of thinking stuff through.
Input has mostly been either useless or 0ev to me but probably +ev to someone else - except those live range considerations with JTo and some other dude which were adding value
hyperliquid has low interest rates for leverage trading.
I have longs open right now there, like 5x @ 10% annualized.
Probably can get cheaper else where, i dno.
If you wanna lev trade memes well thats another story, but legit alts/btc is fine for most coins.
but ur really just gambling at this point. hoping number go up then i will do xyz thing.
it should be done the opposite. you do w/e it is that you want to do. get paid for it then invest the profits.
Yeah Ok .
So considering the price of BTC. The alts are 50% of what they were in 2021 when BTC was at this level.
This does not mean that the Alts are a great bet if the BTC is not expected to run way above of where its now.
So if the BTC dumps everything else goes along the way.
So what I have now is an alt-coin bag but with this logic if trying do some form of a swing-trade and expecting BTC to run further I should have BTC at least double of what I have alts then aim at selling the BTC and later selling the alts.
Right now just having alts (sold btc earlier on already) so can consider this alt bag just winnings whatsoever...
Buying now into BTC or right now leveraging the alts seems bit off.
Think my strategies have been ok yet risk reverse and did not buy at low enough price point into btc and sold too early!
These mistakes aren't something I can undo by taking more risk when it does not look that appealing anymore.
Swing trade it according to pattern - when BTC goes to 56k 57k then leverage the ETH 5x but keep the other coins use it as collateral thing.
I had 2k$ invested in 9 different altcoins proportionately one of them (FET) went so high that i could take out 6k$ then it went down again, i wish i have just bought BTC only because its so much stable, just wait when it goes down and buy thats all you need easy job
Yeah your right we just gonna wait and sell those alts if there comes new btc & alt ATH then wait for next big drop!
This thread is like this ... This thread is like that... Where is Your own thread!
I wrote this in 2 weeks and was able to change many things to a better direction in life because of thinking stuff through.
Input has mostly been either useless or 0ev to me but probably +ev to someone else - except those live range considerations with JTo and some other dude which were adding value
Don't worry mate I'm not hating on your thread. I find what you are saying to be interesting, and refreshingly so.
I don't have a thread yet because I don't know if it's worth the time and effort to play poker anymore.
Well happy to hear and sad to hear you think that way.
Poker is a great game.
I think anyone whose having interested learning poker should play it.
I dislike living in the past that does not benefit however to cheer myself up a bit I do bring up some facts,...
Sometimes negativity gets the best of me and I forget to think of the fact that I was one of the zoom 500 regs on pokerstars for 6 years and therefore one of the better mid-stakes players over a long period of time.
Perhaps I didn't capitalize making the most money by bumhunting and multi siting (as hard as some others did) and I came a bit delayed to the changes of the playerpools (players took a huge jump in pre-flop and postflop after this Gtowizard) platform was released , many of my friends simply retired gave up after they saw it that a 19 year old can suddenly run 200 sims in a day and get from nl25 to nl200 within 6months would they wanted to. This was somewhere around 2022 the pools did really change it was rough in a certain way.
Right now it all just evened itself out in a strange way. I would do just fine at any line ups as long there is fish I would play up to infinite stakes would I be rolled for it.
What I experienced was just a run of 1M hands with result of 180 buy-ins below EV . After it I haven't really been myself at the tables in a certain way.
I don't want to see those AK / QQ all-ins etc.
I really tried to overcome my fears taking shots to up to 2knl this year when had the occasion to sit at a game i was feeling certainly +ev.
Well I just post this hand and it really remind me of the run I have had whenever sit nl2k...
He sits up to 5k 10 k whatever i dont know so he present as end boss okay - the hand by my side is played in a way you wanna play it pretty much ... but getting raised on turn is just re-tarded ... okay i think i could just smash it in on turn i know he doesnt have a hand doing this but i think real player just calls turn and calls any river because whatever you do this with you end over-bluffing in those a/k etc rivers bcz ur just spewing in first place... These types of spots NEVER went my way at nl2k and inevitably it broke my balls
This is reason I think HS and who gets there comes really a lot down to LUCK
Its about having a good run or making bunch of buck by coaching players but if you coach players to make bunch of money most likely you really aren't skilled enough to beat that limit.
There is very few people in our community having beat nl2k + . Over reasonable volume over several years.
These players do exist but it is really a very small minority and at the point of reaching nl1k we do see it as a make it or break it level to playing high-stakes.
Its a crazy thing .
I gave my best and it never worked out.
Then some dude sells coaching says we get you to level x
I wanna smack ur face tbh
Its a lie.
CFPs benefit from the donks who stay there playing nl200-500 chasing the dream .
There is guys out there who think oh i only play 15% bcz i help a bit with coachings on saturdays and whatever...
It is all a lie
Those who run good will get to nl2k+ to play with fishes for big moneys
Thats why I have my thread as I know this online stuff is just lottery basically don't think your the fortunate one just suck it up play live pokers get the capital UP!!!!!
GET THE CAPITAL UP!!!!
Do you agree healthy bankroll is the most important part when moving up?
Well I just post this hand and it really remind me of the run I have had whenever sit nl2k...
He sits up to 5k 10 k whatever i dont know so he present as end boss okay - the hand by my side is played in a way you wanna play it pretty much ... but getting raised on turn is just re-tarded ... okay i think i could just smash it in on turn i know he doesnt have a hand doing this but i think real player just calls turn and calls any river because whatever you do this with you end over-bluffing in th
When I see "bad" plays by objectively good players I always try and think what would have to be true for it to actually be good
Here it's almost nothing considering how badly most people play 4bps
I don't know if I understand your output (English is not my first language) but I'm shocked of getting raised since turn this is no means standard level of play its a spew
Why did he spew ... I don't know and I think its irrelevant everyone feels attached to winning some pot sometime I guess...
But I think players play 4b pots very well everywhere these days on average this is nothing standard
however seeing something like this boggles my mind when you try to take the shots that would actually matter
And these kinds of hands have happen to me ever since I tried take shots to 2knl , which just describes it well if you are a human with any sensibility towards money and you get smashed over and over again there comes a time you say no thx .
Ive played a lot with a lot of guys .
The one time I felt really mind boggled was it was like 1k nl or 2k nl and there was a fish and the one playing with the fish was king10clubs well i took seat and felt like he is really crushing me and the game (in 3 handed game with a fish) by all probability he was but if we would be here in 2024 its hard to see that i wouldn't be veeery +ev in similar situation... by all probability was there already but poker has just evolved.
Thats why he quit already!
