Nuts no redraw vs nuts + redraw. When should you fold?

I'm not here for the long story short. I'm here for the short story long. This is like asking a clinical psychotherapist to diagnose someone else based on your opinion of them. Not enough information. Please provide as much as you can. If you can't remember all the details of preflop, at least do your best to give us something to work with. Reads, image, just a bit more meat, please sir

He showed you his hand? What was it? There are various 'nuts with redraw'. It probably depends. If he has AKQT you probably call. If he has AAQT you probably fold. I dunnow, I'm not gonna do the maths on that when you could probably do that yourself and you CBA to do basic HH prep

Why does it matter if he's an OMC or loose whale if he shows you his hand and there's basically no action left. Why do we need reads and image if he already acted, is basically all in, and shows you what he has. That part of the discussion should not matter at all. I'm not worried about if I played the hand correctly up to the turn.

Let's act like I just threw out a hypothetical situation and this hand never happened.

Whether he has a set with hearts, set with no hearts, or QTXX with hearts are the only redraws that we should consider. With our blockers to some of his outs being a consideration as well.

I want to figure out why we should call/fold in these situations and how to figure it out. If you go by getting 2:1 where I need to be good 33% of the time, yeah it's "profitable". But since we are guaranteed to chop, does this change? If so how?

This is both a concerning thing to read, and beneath my pay grade. Do you really not know how to calculate your equity in this spot versus those hands? Do you really not understand the way past actions narrow ranges and give you key information as to how to play the hand on the current street? Why aren't you worried about playing the hand correctly up to the turn? Is this a quiz format where we're supposed to guess his hand, or are you really asking for me to tell you what your equity is against each of the hands in his range?

The maths behind the question 'how often does he have to have the nuts here and how often does he have to have the nuts with redraw in order for me to fold' is trivially simple and I could teach my 15 year old maths students to do it in a few minutes.

You have enough equity to call turn against a set or fd free roll. It doesn’t matter if you’re calling for half, it matters if your call is +EV. The fact he showed you his hand will just save you 300 on a bad river.

But instead of teaching in a few minutes you type this out.

Apparently you do not understand that I do not care about his range or anything prior to this point of the hand. That is not my question or the discussion I'm trying to have. I'm not trying to go over whether I played the hand correctly or not. That is a different discussion.

I feel very bad for your students if what you are seeing is that I'm asking "how often does he have to have the nuts here and how often does he have to have the nuts with redraw in order for me to fold". I normally would never fold in this spot because there is a chance it's a 100% chop, we have a chance to win, or we are getting freerolled. Those are all options. When he SHOWS me his hand, that goes out the window. We are only chopping at best. It's like your student came to you with a math question and you want to go over history instead. Did you even read the topic of the post Mr. wazz?

If the usual is risk/(risk+final pot), yes I know it is supposed to be a call. But since we can only win half, I'm assuming we do risk/(risk+half of final pot). This means if we have SPR 1 on the flop and a player pots then SHOWS us the nuts + fd or nuts + set and we only have nuts no redraw, we fold because we need 66% equity. On turns we call everything unless he shows nuts + fd + set.

I definitely couldn't teach you.

But looks like you got there by yourself in the end, so maybe I have actually helped you somehow

And btw, my 'pay grade' here is that I give away my time to teach underprivileged kids maths, so that should tell you something about how worthy you've made this cause

Those poor kids. I've never met a math teacher who couldn't teach maths.

This isn't something that is taught like the usual pot odds, so it's not something everybody will know how to figure out. Sadly if someone is new to the game and has this question, they will likely come across this post and see nobody cares to answer and would rather type that instead of a simple equation.

There are reasons people could think it's any of these:
Risk/(risk+half final pot)
Risk/(half risk+half final pot)
Risk/(half final pot)

But for anybody who comes across this in the future. It got answered today very quickly in another post here: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/170/l...

ten posts in and we still don't know what the other guy actually had to answer the question. lol

Don't do the short hand. Write out the EV equation, then simplify if possible. All of these short hand answers are derived from the full equation.

EV = P_win*ammount_won + P_split * ammount_won_split - (1 - P_win - P_split) * ammount_lost_if_lose

if you want to know break even then set that equal to 0.

Just so you can write that correctly let's take an example where you either win or lose and can't split and the pot has P and your opponent bets B. Final pot would be P + 2B, but don't use that:

ammount_won = P + B
ammount_lost = B

EV = 0 = w*(P+B) - (1-w)*B
w = B/(P+2B)

there is the simpliciation you are used to - but it comes from the base formula