Facing turn shove - call or fold?
Live 1/3.
Folds around.
CU raise $10. (older woman, has been PFRing and seems to play OK).
BU call $10.
Hero (SB) raise $40 w/ KsJh.
CU call $40.
BU fold.
Flop ($90) comes 10c9d5h.
Hero bet $50.
CU raise $100.
Hero call $100.
Turn ($290) comes Jc.
Hero check.
CU all-in for $175.
Hero?
Spoiler
After a minute or two, I folded this spot. I obviously have at least 8% equity going into the river, with 4 Q outs, but in this spot I figured CUÂ’s range is heavily weighted toward value. As played, CU has 99, 10s, straights, and two-pair, which we are crushed to. I thought if CU raised flop with just a top pair hand, she would be checking turn quite a bit, and we wouldnÂ’t be seeing many shoves. After the hand, she said KJ was good, and that she was on a straight draw, but IÂ’m not sure I believe that. Curious as to thoughts.
11 Replies
I think he either hit his straight on the river or made a good play on you. I have no idea. Kudos to the villain.
Pre-flop seems like a disaster.
Flop play seems like a disaster.
Go about $60 pre. KJo is fine to 3 bet **** it.
Annoying flop raise, but idk, youre always facing a shove ott and youre only happy with 4 cards. I dont feel like doing the math but im guessing its a fold. GTO basically never raises here, its definitely a weirdo spew move by V when shes this shallow and IP facing aggression, shes got plenty of time to get the money in.
Turn it sucks but you gotta just fold, even 87 got there, what do you beat?
Not sure I agree with this but willing to hear your explanation. Some context - table was fairly passive, expecting to take down the $20 a decent amount the time. I agree with the other poster I need to go bigger though, if I want to realize that outcome. But even so, facing a call, KJo does not play terribly vs. a calling range.
On the flop, I have a gutter and two overs. With the bet, I fold out a lot of Ax that has called preflop and some underpairs that call. And even vs. a calling range to that bet, KJo again has decent equity. Two overs will beat many top and second pair hands that call, and obviously Q for the nuts.
Not sure how this thought process could be seen as a disaster. Optimal, certainly not, considering the preflop sizing, but I do have a hard time seeing the hand as anywhere close to a disaster.
Not to mention other profitable bluff lines that we can take on certain runouts facing a flop call.
At the time I was wondering if V takes this line enough with QJ or other spews to justify a call. I agree it’s a weird spot and can definitely just fold flop, but at the time I was thinking that implied odds justified the call considering I expected to win her whole stack if a Q popped off, which might just make it a call. I expect her to shove a lot of the time on the turn or river so I think it’s safe to assume that a large percentage of the time we’re stacking her with a Q. And then sometimes we bink a J or K and it checks down and we win. So all in all, that’s why I called.
As others have said, squeeze size should be bigger, ~50-60.
This flop hits CO's range more than yours, thus I prefer a check. If you c-bet so often, you should probably cbet smaller, like 1/3 pot (?) .
As played, I reluctantly fold to the min-raise.
Once we get to the turn, I do not think we can fold.
As others have said, squeeze size should be bigger, ~50-60.
This flop hits CO's range more than yours, thus I prefer a check. If you c-bet so often, you should probably cbet smaller, like 1/3 pot (?) .
As played, I reluctantly fold to the min-raise.
Once we get to the turn, I do not think we can fold.
Add effective stacks to your future HHs please, OP. We can figure out V had 315, but it's easier to see at the start.
Anyway, what Niemand said. On the V's range ?, I'm trying to think of what in CO calls a SB squeeze with BU still to act, and with IO of maybe 10-1. I guess TT-99 that doesn't want to 4!, maybe QQ-JJ too? And back-raises are pretty rare. Along with various SC broadways.
Not much should be connecting with that flop either, I'd think. You should have as many TT-99 as V does, right? Still starting this with a X. And folding turn AP---older female V, I want to see other hands where she raised, then shoved with air/semi-bluffed, before wanting to call her down. As I berate myself for calling the clickback.
I probably just lean to a nitty fold preflop OOP to a person who is playing ok. I think there are just better spots (in position, slightly better hand, etc.) and there is no reason to put ourselves in marginal spots (especially if we might not have the skillz to make those marginal spots clearly +EV).
With 2 overs and a gutshot I don't mind a cbet but I probably go smaller. Calling the raise OOP at these stack sizes is extremely optimistic.
I don't make it to the turn but most just aren't sticking it in with one pair like this. Although you could argue we've committed ourselves given this price / outs if behind.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Thanks all for the input. Taking away a couple things from this.
1. Can 100% fold pre here, as some posters have said. We need to feel pretty good about our edge to make a raise +EV here. But once we do make the prefer raise, I absolutely need to go bigger. With effective stacks of $315, CU should hardly be folding in position to a 4x raise. 60 would likely be the best option. If we make it 60, it’s much easier to lay it down to a flop raise, considering the raising range will be much stronger.
2. C-bet should be smaller here. No real reason to go over half-pot at these stack depths. C-bet smaller should accomplish the goals I mentioned, and would probably allow us to continue more easily vs. the sort of minclick CU went for here.
3. Will put effective stacks in the future, along with more descriptions of the player and their previous play, as of course that’s highly relevant and influences any decisions points.
So all in all, currently taking away from this that preflop and flop play were poor, but once we get to the turn I’m still thinking fold is correct.
Thanks all for the input. Taking away a couple things from this.
1. Can 100% fold pre here, as some posters have said. We need to feel pretty good about our edge to make a raise +EV here. But once we do make the prefer raise, I absolutely need to go bigger. With effective stacks of $315, CU should hardly be folding in position to a 4x raise. 60 would likely be the best option. If we make it 60, it’s much easier to lay it down to a flop raise, considering the raising range will be much stron
I mean, 3 betting here is part of a gto range (ignoring the button caller). This is solid winning poker, and most players 3 bet too narrow not too wide, which, not 3 betting enouvh is leaving a ton of money on the table, because 3 betting lines are the most winning lines in the game. If 3 betting os borderline, generallg i think its better to 3 bet
2. C-bet should be smaller here. No real reason to go over half-pot at these stack depths. C-bet smaller should accomplish the goals I mentioned, and would probably allow us to continue more easily vs. the sort of minclick CU went for here.
Cbet size is fine. You just ran into a weird raise.
3. Will put effective stacks in the future, along with more descriptions of the player and their previous play, as of course that’s highly relevant and influences any decisions points.
So all in all, currently taking away from this that preflop and flop play were poor, but once we get to the turn I’m still thinking fold is correct.
You played it well.
