Toughest Spot I've Been in in a while!

I think this is a straightforward call. You are calling $175 to win what will be a final pot of $1150. You only need to win 15% of the time to break even calling here.

I think V1 basically never has a flush when he leaves $70 back on the river. V2 is somewhat unlikely to have a flush as well. I think the Ace and King high flush always raises river (if not flop) and the Q- and J- high flushes can also raise on any street (combo draw on flop).

On this board there are loads of combos of sets, two pair, and worse straights that either Villain can have (not to mention comic overplays from V1like Tx).

Flop looks like the world's greatest spot to raise, but obviously you know that already.

What Dan said. Seems like a monumentally easy call.

I'm trying to figure out why a TAG endboss (love the description) is over limping in MP, but he didn't L/RR over you, so w/e. Would not be stunned to see him flip over 76, lol. Now, is it 76ss...?

V1 has something like 2p, given the call pf, and the 1.5X on the flop, along with increasing bet size, though smaller % on later streets. Though if no one ever 3b (not even you??), I guess something like KK-JJ is possible. Not at all worried about them. Though lol at continuing to fire all three streets on a 3-straight flop and then the flush comes in too.

V2...genuinely don't know. A smaller flush draw that he doesn't know what to do with fits. Though is he just calling a 1/2 pot turn bet when it hits? Maybe he only has 1 spade? JsTx??

Or a set, I guess, though I can't see that V overlimping TT-88. I also can't figure out what he thinks you might be going for. What's a good medium strength, "Can't raise, can't fold, because still beating V1's TP, or 2P," hand here? Top straight beats those, so call.

Slowplaying the nuts on the flop is entirely reasonable, the fact that the flush comes on the turn sometimes doesnt mean you cant slowplay, thats just poker. I do think raising will tend to make you more, just because an overcard could kill the action, but i dont think its a terrible call at all.

Turn is easy call. River is sorta marginal, but id call.

Another thought on this hand: if you call and lose to V2's baby flush, it's just a cooler. You called a quarter pot-sized bet on the river with the nut straight and lost to a flush. To me, that is not a mistake. If it is a mistake, it's a very small one.

If you fold the best hand here (V1 shows up with 98s, V2 scoops $1000 with T9s), it is a colossal mistake. You can't risk folding the best hand in a huge pot when you are getting incredible odds.

Ranges I have in mind for V1 & V2 by the river

V1 & V2 could both have 89, T9, 76, QJ, and maybe J8, also unlikely for V2 ap but both could have 99, 88, TT. All of those hands I beat or chop.

V1 could have any sort of XXss imo

V2 could have any KQss, KJss, QJss, maybeee K8ss/Q8ss. V2 definetly does not have AQss or AKss, but maybe AJss plus all of the A8ss - also maybe 87ss, 76ss, and maybe 65ss

Also by river if you have a flus and your v2 isn't it a better move to smooth call the flush hoping I make the call vs raising, forcing me out and getting an extra 70 from V1 vs 175 from me?

Also - I've been watching alot of Hanson's CLP youtube videos and I know its LOL low stakes but he stresses that a person who calls a bet with players behind usually has to have a stronger range because players in LP still have to act behind, and V2 would for sure know this.

Then just say Old White Guy and give your read. This would be like me describing some some awkward 20-something with a hoodie as "looks like a stereotypical, autistic grinder--but is not."

These two descriptors are contradictory. I assume you mean "he rarely bluffs when he bets large."

I disagree that V1 can have XXss. Why would he bet so small on turn and on river? You said yourself when he uses small sizings he doesn't have anything. And does he often donk overbet multiway with a draw? It looks like he had a made hand on the flop to me.

Regarding your ranges - put those hands into an equity calculator. Give V1 some flushes. Give V2 every combo of every flush he could possibly take this fancy, trapping line with. Give them both some two pairs, some straights, and some sets. There is no way you don't have 15% equity here. I would be surprised if you had less than 30%.

Any card A-6 inclusive or any spade could slow down, if not kill the action. That's most of the deck.

Flop appears a straightforward raise. As played cal turn. River is close, you're hoping for one to have a set and the other to have a worse straight, that's a lot of hoping.

I’d over limp preflop and jam flop but as played just fold turn.

One of them is going to have a flush very often. Even players who can’t hand read well understand a flush came in. He also donk over bet flop and was called by a second player. Ranges are much tighter than normal OTT.

All of this combined with the fact that you have high reverse implied odds makes it a turn fold.

A good MDA heuristic is when you can easily have a nutted hand (flush in this instance) and your opponents keep betting into you. It will be an underbluffed spot.

Interested in results.

Very suspicious of any "endboss" description that says smart/aggressive but he limp/overcalls OOP preflop.

I think just calling on flop is fine, at least sometimes. Also there's not really a great size (also pre hand says V1 has 500 but text implies it's closer to 450), and you are in position.
One of the outcomes here though is finding folds on the turn when it gets bad ... like WTF does V2 "endboss" have that can limp/call pre. and then call the overbet on the flop, and then call a bet on the turn after you overcalled the flop?
Maybe he can have 88 on the flop, but 77 seems borderline spew there and how does he not raise QJ/JT/JJ pre ... also does he just call with JT again on the turn? Random 7s6s makes sense though, maybe even Qs8s/Qs7s/Js8s/7s5s/6s5s. Can he be spew limp/calling J7s pre?
Does he put us on enough JJ that he keeps calling T9? (would pretty much remove endboss label then though).

I think turn is much closer to fold than the river, if that's what you are thinking.
I wouldn't raise after the flush gets there, without great reads.
I might just fold turn depending on how you think both players will play very high relative strength hand boards ... esp. for the overbet. Even if you ignore V1 because he overplays overpairs (even though he never has one here) the "endboss" should be very worried about your flop overcall of the overbet, but he decides to call 60bb on the turn anyway. Like V2 maybe limp/calls pre. with 88 and tank calls 88 all the way down, _maybe_ even 99 ... but it's difficult to come up with more worse hands for him without removing the endboss label (Eg. having 7c6c on turn is pretty bad).

I gave V2 every nut flush and every reasonable King high flush, plus the premium spade suited connectors that OP included. I gave him 5 hands that we beat/chop with: T9s, 98s, 76s, QJs, and 88.

I gave V1 a bunch of sets and two pair and straights. I gave him some low flushes. I gave him ATo to represent the overplay spew hands. I probably should have given him QJo, T9o, and even more offsuit stuff we beat.

If these ranges are accurate, we win something like $175 calling this river. So folding river would be almost a 100bb mistake.

If we remove 88, QJs, and 76s from V2's range, so he has only flushes (again that limp/call pre and somehow don't raise turn or river) and 5 combos of two pair (3 combos of T9s, 2 combos of 98s), Hero has 16.5% equity which still makes this a +EV call.

What is MDA?

I saw this acronym used in both of your other threads and was too shy to ask

It stands for Mass Data Analysis. It’s how population is playing (so humans) as opposed to GTO which is how computers play.

Thank you!

PRE - don't know what the usual open size is in this game, but if your raise is getting three calls here, I'd think it could be bigger.

FLOP - I don't like slow playing strong but vulnerable hands on wet and dynamic boards. I'd be raising this donk bet a lot, and for a big size, like $350, especially when V2 tank calls. We just need to be cognizant that if we get 3B, we could be getting free-rolled by QsJs.

TURN - ugh. Really not liking this spot at all. Seems really unlikely that this is a situation where V1 is over-playing a worse hand and V2 is just coming along with something increasingly speculative. I don't know if I could find a fold here, but I'd be preparing to fold if V2 suddenly jams river.

RIVER - can't fold now. No point in raising.

To answer your question about V2...if I was V2, I would probably raise turn with the nut flush, because I wouldn't think you'd be over-calling the flop without a draw to the nuts or any hand that will over-call turn behind us, but I think V1 will get sticky and call a turn raise, then check most rivers to us. There just aren't that many AsXs combos I would have that limp-call pre, and I could be bluffing with AsXo, so I'm not worried about being too face up. So I wouldn't get to the river the way V2 did if he has the NF. I'd only have KXss, and I'd play it the way V2 played this hand.

It's hard to believe V2 is going to call the flop over-bet donk with you (the PFR) behind him, without a decent amount of equity. Because he limp-called pre, and tank called flop and turn, it wouldn't surprise me if he rolls over some garbage suited KsXs, like Ks7s or worse.

That said, and despite your reads, I won't be shocked if you win and they both have something stupid, like 2P, a set, or the dumb end of the straight.

Yeah, everything said above, can't fold now.

Not ripping on you, but I don't think this is a tough spot at all, sure, you lose a lot, but pot odds are too good, and no one has said you are facing a monster yet.

Yeah, i mean, i agree raising is the best course of action, because most people dont exploit this, but its important to understand that the tendency of the population is that they WAY overplay their nuts on dynamic boards and so you can aggressively double barrel when they just call, and against s thinking opponent they will NEVER put you on the nuts when you just call the flop.

And bottom line is, i dont think its a disaster flop call. I think its a suboptimal line but not a huge leak.

Raise flop is better, maybe just jam, but call is ok. I’m calling turn and river, we’re beating a lot of value.

Your post is very well written and I like your takeaways.

For bullet point no.2 I would add that it's not just that the river doesn't change anything, it's that the pot odds we are offered, we have to call, even though we may expect to lose the pot more often than not.

Comparing to your play, I dislike V2's play PF and OTF even more. He doesn't deserve the name 'TAG endboss'.

Was coming in here to make the same point about bullet #2 (and about the TAG endboss lol)

To add on, I actually think you CAN often fold the river pretty often when nothing changes. To circle back to Bart Hanson (who OP refers to in an earlier post) folding these types of spots would be an example of playing "fifth street chicken" in a low-stakes game where triple barrels are significantly underbluffed.

As LCC pointed out above, if there is a main heuristic-style takeaway from this hand, it would be not to fold when we beat some value (albeit strangely played value) and are getting incredible odds to call.