Running or making a 5 point?

Arguments against running: you trail by 34 pips and gammons don't hurt you more than a single loss.
Arguments for running: your back man might get stuck there or pointed on if you don't escape.

But red might also have a back men problem, especially if you make the 5-point and broken prime.

I'd be tempted to make the 5-point.

Seems to me that you can more credibly claim to be a favorite if you make the 5 point. Your block is of lower quality, but Red has 2 checkers trapped to your 1 and your timing is much better. Meanwhile if you run, Red has 15 shots that put you in very bad shape and if he rolls one of the 21 misses, I think you are a pretty clear favorite, but far from winning since you are still down in the race and Red's board is still great. So I think you are a fairly clear underdog overall. But I could be way off, tough position to evaluate since the plays are so different.

Making the golden point gives to White a no-blot position, a 5-broken prime with better timing than Red (the spares on mid) : it is certainly better to win more games and more gammons (which matters at this score).

I think White has a little edge in this game after that play (big rolls could lead Red to broke his 5-prime, eventually blitzing White, but Red will got a hard time to escape from White board).

You are of course correct, but gammon does give white a very slight edge vs a single win due to red having a free drop after a single. It’s likely not enough to affect the decision on the current position though.

Yeah, I voluntarily omitted to mention the free drop because the EV gained isn't significant.

I agree