KK vs limper facing big river bet
2/5 8-handed Aria Las Vegas; effective stacks $800
V: 60 y/o quiet confident Asian woman with a lot of expensive jewelry, just moved from another 2/5.
V limps $5 UTG
Folds to H in SB who makes it $30 with KdKs. V calls.
($55) Qc 4d 2h
H $20
V $50
H calls
($155) Qc 4d 2h 7s
H check
V $120
H calls
($395) Qc 4d 2h 7s 8d
H check
V $350
H?
Maybe this is obvious?
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It looks face up like a set. A decent player limp/calling looks like a small pp. She probably is trying to create a multiway pot. Then the small raise on the flop looks like she doesn't want you to fold. Seems like a player who gives information with her sizing, etc. Plus there are almost no draws on this board.
Interesting that gto calls with A4 more than KK here though, but sorta makes sense, its either a set or nothing (also its never gonna be nothing vs a real life opponent so in practice you fold A4 AND KK)
i think theres a good amount of people this is easy call otr vs, she just doesn't seem like one of them. fwiw this is also the board / spot that this type of player will way overbluff when tilted imo
Maybe at 5/T+, but at1/3 and 2/5 nobody check raise triple barrels with total air with any sort of frequency, and there are basically zero semi bluffs so itd have to be air.
anyways. good luck coming up with comparable pre ranges and her sizing scheme is sub optimal (maybe not since she got pure called by KK) but
this relies on here bluffing off with 43 53 a3 hands at some frequency (gl with that) and some trace amounts of Qx that she does this with i guess bc blocker effects / to not be super polarized. but it leads to solver wanting to call down with good Qx vs the overpairs. i dont know if this mimics reality since to call down in this spot irl you really need o
Cool posts. Thanks!
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I want to say up front that I think Submersible makes a number of good points here, and I don't entirely disagree with him. Just based on the very limited description of V, and the action, if we were ever going to find a fold, this would be the spot, and the V.
That said, this isn't an easy fold, against any V. It would be a terrible fold against a lot of low-stakes recs who will over-play top pair or find their way here and take this line with some BS like 53 or A5s. For that matter, some good players might find this line with their better draws. Other than having QQ or 44 here, there wouldn't seem to be very many better hands in our range, that call the flop raise and turn barrel.
And there wouldn't seem to be very many decisions we could have made differently to minimize the damage. Maybe we check-call the flop, or check-raise-fold, or c-bet-3B-fold. But other than raise-folding the flop, I don't see how we get away from our hand before the turn, and that assumes she 3B's the flop over our raise, which she might not do.
If we're folding here, are we doing it because the POPULATION just always has a set, or because the older Asian lady just always has a set? If we're going to make an exploitable fold based on such a limited read, which seems almost entirely based on demographic stereotypes, okay, but then we gotta be able to discuss those stereotypes without being labeled bigots.
If we're folding here, are we doing it because the POPULATION just always has a set, or because the older Asian lady just always has a set? If we're going to make an exploitable fold based on such a limited read, which seems almost entirely based on demographic stereotypes, okay, but then we gotta be able to discuss those stereotypes without being labeled bigots.
FWIW, I don't think that "Asian" adds anything of predictive value for pokering when the subpopulation is older women. I understand that posters give racial/gender observations because it paints a picture for the reader. but usually the information is close to worthless for making reads. I personally assume that age is the only demographic category that might have some predictive value, but only as you get closer to the tails of the distribution.
FWIW, I don't think that "Asian" adds anything of predictive value for pokering when the subpopulation is older women. I understand that posters give racial/gender observations because it paints a picture for the reader. but usually the information is close to worthless for making reads. I personally assume that age is the only demographic category that might have some predictive value, but only as you get closer to the tails of the distribution.
(Hypothetically, if you'd like) - suppose someone here believed they noticed a difference among older women based on their race.
Not hypothetically - I've noticed a difference.
Admittedly, it's only my own observation, which is a limited data sample, but from what I've seen, older Asian women play differently than older white women, who play differently than older Latino women, and older black women. Among all sub-sets of "older women", I notice that older Asian women are out of line the least often.
To ignore or deny the widespread tendencies among certain demographics would seem to be negative EV for the discussions here.
I thin that due to the fact that preflop you would've wanted this to end up all in on the river with no A on board. You got the driest board there is basically. You have to call imo. If we had history with her I might think differently.
