AA set crai on turn
I was not involved in this hand, but thought it was interesting. 1/2 NL, UTG+1 raises to 10, LJ calls, hero in 5th position /CO 3!s to 35 with AcAd, original raiser folds, caller calls. Flop is QcJd8s. Check, hero bets 30, call. Turn is As for QcJd8sAs. Check, hero bets 95, checkraise allin for another 500, hero covers. Hero calls or folds?
11 Replies
I think hero should check flop or turn as this run outs hits the double flat range. Now I guess we are at top of our range so call and hope to see some stupid set or pair plus straight or flush draw
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This is a straightforward call. Villain can have worse value hands that are essentially drawing dead. When he does show up with a straight, we have plenty of equity.
Let's say Villain only ever has QQ, T9s, and KTs. He never has AQ, JJ, 88, QJs etc (or, god forbid, a bluff), he only ever has super thick value. AA has 43% equity against that range.
In this spot, Hero is calling $500 to win a final pot of ~$1330, so Hero needs 37.6% equity.
Edit: also I agree that I might check back this flop playing this deep
I dunno. Action from hero seems pretty standard. We're losing to T9 and KT, but V could have a lot of 1P and 2P on the flop.
Probably fold to the CRAI for $500, at least sometimes, if we have a read that V is never FOS when he does this. Otherwise, I think it's close enough, and calling can't be too big a mistake. We're getting like 2.4 to 1, and have around 40% chance to boat up. If V is ever FOS, or value-betting worse, it's a fairly straightforward call.
I dunno. Action from hero seems pretty standard. We're losing to T9 and KT, but V could have a lot of 1P and 2P on the flop.
Probably fold to the CRAI for $500, at least sometimes, if we have a read that V is never FOS when he does this. Otherwise, I think it's close enough, and calling can't be too big a mistake. We're getting like 2.4 to 1, and have around 40% chance to boat up. If V is ever FOS, or value-betting worse, it's a fairly straightforward call.
It's a clear call imo, because we beat a ton of value including 2p and lower sets, but how do you calc 40% if we are behind? I calc 10 outs including the case Ace. Rule of 2 would be 20%.
It's a clear call imo, because we beat a ton of value including 2p and lower sets, but how do you calc 40% if we are behind? I calc 10 outs including the case Ace. Rule of 2 would be 20%.
Ugh. I keep doing that. I swear I actually do know the math. But it seems like I can't type and remember to differentiate between flop odds and turn odds.
You are of course correct. It's 20%, not 40%.
It would help to have some reads. We gotta believe V is over-playing 2P or worse sets to feel like this is an automatic call. If we know V is capable, sure, rip it. But if we don't know anything about V, I wouldn't auto-call.
Lately I've been re-focused on making tight calls when LOL-stakes players start amping up the aggression. Like, even if V is repping a single combo for value, it seems like that's always exactly what they have when they CRAI for 5x.
I'd feel better about it if there were a lot of likely draws that V could have for bluffs. But there just aren't that many. We're just hoping he has worse value that's being over-played.
Call for the small chance v can have a set or 2P. But honestly this is mainly just a straight.
Not 20%, it is 23%. You are putting in 29% of the money. So villain doesn't have to have a set of whatever often for it to be a call.
Hero tank called. Villain showed T9s for a straight, which held. Hero also showed.
From villain's point of view, once hero bets 2/3 pot for a large bet in absolute size, there is reason to check/shove. The 3-bettor is representing AA/QQ/JJ for a set, and should have that a lot. Villain is worried about the board pairing, a K/T/9 puts a one liner to a straight out, and a spade puts a flush out. So not that many cards he is comfortable with on the river.
Wondered if hero should have played the hand so strongly on the flop and turn with the dangerous board.
Both players seemed like decent players for the stakes.
I think V has enough sets here (I see the results) to make the call pretty straight forward.
Calling pretty quickly. He has all the sets and possibly some semi bluffs. It’s somewhat likely he has 8 combos of straights and 9 combos of sets. Throw in some combo draws and maybe even 2 pair and this is an easy call.
If we give him all KTo and T9o it isn’t as clear but that also gives him more junky offsuit 2 pair.
It shouldn't be anything but a straight often, because the 3-bettor should have AA/QQ a lot based on the 3-bet and the turn bet. JJ might just call down. However, you still need to call given your equity against a straight, the pot odds, and the chance it is something you have crushed.
