KK facing a 4-bet
1-3 NL...
V1: Heavily inked 30-something WG, with some of the ink being poker themed...playing fairly tight, seems like a non-descript low limit TAG. ($450)
V2: 60-something WG...not at the table long...bought in for $100 and is now down to $25
Hero: 60-something WG...playing fairly tight ($400)
V1 raises UTG to $10, V2 next in shoves his remaining $25, folded to Hero in BB who raises to $50...V1 4-bets to $150...Hero...?
Sure, but the point is that OP believes he is making an "exploitative fold" because he thinks UTG is only 4betting AA here, which is evidently wrong. So, in other words, rather than being exploitative, his fold is exploitable because it means he is incorrectly overfolding and simply giving up his equity in the pot and losing EV to other players as a result. And that is even if they only play optimally from a game theory perspective and do not try to actively exploit OP's overfolding mistake. If they were aware of this leak then UTG could 4bet range and gain even more EV from the BB.
Facing a minclick 3bet from an OOP 60-year old opponent in a protected pot is definitely concerning but I am still 4betting at least AA, KK, QQ and AK in response.
You can do what you want, obviously.
I've seen people 3bet an EP open from an old white guy who limps almost everything with... 86s. And then they thought they were a genius on 885 when old white guy stacked off.
However if you open GTO wiz (100bb, 6 max) and put in UTG open, then HJ (UTG+1) 3bet is stupidly wide for anyone at 1-3 (8.9%, no calls), CO cold 4bet is still a bit wide (3.6%, including some TT/AJs/ATs/A5s/KQs, and still no calls but CO folds some AKo and a bunch of JJ and most TT/AJs/KQs/etc. stuff that people mostly aren't just lol folding live) ... action folds to BB and BB responds by folding 50% QQ and 50% AKo (and still no calls).
BB does stack off with KK though.
Those are robot sizings though, for 100bb ... so if we make it 200bb due to open sizing issues everyone gets tighter and BB folds 100% of AKo and 80% QQ (cold 5bets 40% of A5s tough 😀. Still stacks off with KK, TBF.
To be clear the reason I was 100% stack off is that my experience is that the min. 3bet all-in doesn't mean much, and so is not concerning at all.
If you open GTO wiz (100bb, 6 max) and put in UTG open, then HJ (UTG+1) 3bet is stupidly wide for anyone at 1-3 (8.9%, no calls), CO cold 4bet is still a bit wide (3.6%, including some TT/AJs/ATs/A5s/KQs, and still no calls but CO folds some AKo and a bunch of JJ and most TT/AJs/KQs/etc. stuff that people mostly aren't just lol folding live) ... action folds to BB and BB responds by folding 50% QQ and 50% AKo (and still no calls).
BB does stack off with KK though.
Those are robot sizings though, f
For sure there's obviously a huge difference between GTO Wizard and live low stakes poker - and as you indicated, most players are playing much looser and more passively than they should. For example, C/O folding AKo facing a raise and a 3bet from earlier positions is rarely happening; most players are at least calling. And the same principle applies with the majority of players playing too loose preflop in 3bet and 4bet pots, etc.
Yes naturally it's no surprise that KK is stacking off in GTO Wizard; of course one cannot continue only with aces.
I think all you need to do to know this is not only AA is to imagine what the villain would do with KK. Unless your answer is flat (I don't think he ever does as played to what is essentially a 3bet) or fold (come on), the whole argument that you should fold KK kind of falls apart. Now just expand your imagination a tiny bit and throw QQ and AKs in there. I've been playing low stakes recreationallly for almost 20 years, and the described villain will absolutely jam QQ and AKs here some of the ti
Might wanna run those EV calcs again.
Of course, but it's pretty safe to infer from BB's action (folding KK) that his continuing range is exactly AA, which is obviously hugely problematic.
AKs almost always ranks above KK for me preflop, so it would not be a safe inference against me.
Sure, but again - how can we know that villain is going to raise/fold unless we are clairvoyant?
To be clear, I would not play against villain as if he's raise/folding because I am assuming almost no one is raise/folding here.
My point is that EVEN IF I WERE playing as though he had a raise/fold range, my adjustment would be to increase the number of unpaired hands I shove relative to my big pairs. This is related to the first sentence of my post by the way.
I was mostly talking about live low stakes, where I'd argue it's a lot more common to see ~minclick 4bets with AA and massive 4bet overjams with AK.
Most of my hours booked the last 15 years has been live, and I would argue the opposite, but I'm even LESS capable of substantiating that than I am my online population read so again we'll just have to agree to disagree, and I'm fine with that.
Great, have a good one!
AKs almost always ranks above KK for me preflop, so it would not be a safe inference against me.
I think it's pretty clear from OP's post that he's not continuing with anything other than AA vs the UTG 4bet.
To be clear, I would not play against villain as if he's raise/folding because I am assuming almost no one is raise/folding here. My point is that EVEN IF I WERE playing as though he had a raise/fold range, my adjustment would be to increase the number of unpaired hands I shove relative to my big pairs. This is related to the first sentence of my post by the way.
I understand what you're saying. The point I was making is that you could not know villain was raise/folding in any case unless you had some knowledge of his preflop strategy (which you have claimed we do not have in other posts).
Most of my hours booked the last 15 years has been live, and I would argue the opposite, but I'm even LESS capable of substantiating that than I am my online population read so again we'll just have to agree to disagree, and I'm fine with that.
I'd say that this is also true online - i.e. weak players being inclined to minclick 4bet with AA and 4bet rip with AK. Maybe there is someone out there with some MDA who can add to the conversation?
