NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

jfc the BUFFS punted on 4th and 1 from the Cincy 38 yd. line late 3rd qtr. Cincy already out to the 20+ yd line with 1st down going into the 4th qtr.

If Deion is going full send out the kicker always on 4th down....ship his a** out. I would have expected more aggressive and intelligent from him.

also lol again these refs are complete S**T....would expect to see $$$ transfers to their bank accounts from non-BUFF fans.

bump

shedeur has been sent off twice on 4th and 1 or less since it was 31-14...now it's 31-23 mid 4th qtr. there is zero chance he isn't picking up either of those 1st downs running.

and now here are again struggling to hang on late.

bowl eligible YES and the cover tonight....not that Travis or Shedeur will play in that bowl game....

Vandy, I mean wins over Bama and Texas woulda coulda meant 2024 is their best season in school history, even if it ends in the Buca de Bepo Bowl.

Buffs ranked omg

Extremely chalky playoff contender weekend:

Pretty much every bubble team won:
Pitt, Indiana, Ole Miss, Alabama, ND and BYU all took care of business.

SMU and K-State got through by the skin of their teeth

OSU and Texas avoided having their backs to the wall with narrow victories that preserved breathing room

The only major swing was the LSU/ATM game, where ATM added a second quality win and still has a one-loss cushion (which is important, as they host UT in the final weekend and have a tough trip @ USCe next).

LSU / Bama now becomes very high stakes. The winner is probably something like 90%, while the loser is probably something like 20%

TUESDAY
New Mexico State 9.5
Florida International -9

Louisiana-Lafayette 3.5
Texas State -3.5
The winner of this game (especially if it's ULL) is likely to make the Sun Belt title game, and also to be a favorite once they get there.

Louisiana Tech 10.5
Sam Houston -10.5

WEDNESDAY
Jacksonville State 1.5
Liberty -1.5

Kennesaw State 24.5
Western Kentucky -24

THURSDAY
Tulane -16.5
UNC Charlotte 16.5
Standalone Thursday game. Charlotte to Memphis to the brink this weekend. The AAC has four main contenders: Tulane, Memphis, Navy and Army. Army plays none of them (prior to playoff selection) and is already very likely to be in the AACCG. Navy already beat Memphis, and Tulane plays both Navy and Memphis to close. The winner is likely behind Boise if Boise wins out, but UNLV is rooting hard for a little bit of chaos. They want Navy/Memphis/Tulane to drop a game, then knock everybody else out.

FRIDAY
Georgia State 7.5
UConn -7.5

South Florida -2
Florida Atlantic 2.5

San Diego State 23.5
Boise State -22.5

SATURDAY
Air Force 23.5
Army -22.5

Memphis -7
UTSA 7.5
See Tulane blurb above. Same thing applies to Memphis

Mississippi -6.5
Arkansas 6.5
Arkansas is dead if they lose, and in great shape if they win out. Ole Miss is dead if they lose, and a lock if they win out. So, this is as close to an elimination game for both teams as you can get at this point in the season.

Buffalo -1
Akron 1.5

Toledo -7.5
Eastern Michigan 7.5

Duke 20.5
Miami -20

Stanford 10
North Carolina State -9.5

Virginia Tech -3.5
Syracuse 4
VT has won 3 in a row by comfortable margins, and has Clemson at home next week. If they win out, and the Pitt/SMU winner loses a game, they're in excellent shape to make the ACCCG.

Minnesota -2
Illinois 2

Northwestern -1.5
Purdue 2.5

Ohio State -3.5
Penn State 4
Both teams had a rough weekend despite the wins. Allar got hurt for PSU, and OSU struggled to run against a Nebraska team that Indiana just beat 56-7. PSU's schedule probably locks them into the playoff regardless of whether they win or lose, but a B1G title and bye are very much in the balance. Ohio State can afford to lose once, but definitely not twice, although a loss would definitely remove them from title game contention.

Vanderbilt 6.5
Auburn -6.5
Vandy does not give a **** who they play, it's gonna go down to the wire. Every game but Alcorn has been close, whether it's Alabama and Texas or it's Ball State and Georgia Stat . Auburn finally picked up a much needed win, can they keep the momentum going?

Tulsa 3.5
UAB -3.5

Maine 34.5
Oklahoma -34.5

Old Dominion -2
Appalachian State 2.5

Florida 16.5
Georgia -16
Florida starts the gauntlet - n Georgia, @ Texas, v LSU, v Ole Miss. At least @ FSU is a gimme! I don't think UF is gonna make the playoff at 8-4, but they should at least merit some consideration.

Louisiana-Monroe 10.5
Marshall -10.5

Arizona 6.5
Central Florida -5.5

Kansas State -12.5
Houston 13
After starting 1-4, Houston has turned around and won 2/3, beating TCU on the road and Utah at home. UNLV is certainly rooting for them to do as well as possible. The B-12 has narrowed to a four way race, with ISU and BYU still undefeated and Colorado (loss to K-State) and K-State (loss to BYU) vying for the final two spots. It will be a proxy war, as the only game remaining between the four contenders is ISU/KSU in the final week of the season.

Texas Tech 14.5
Iowa State -14.5

North Carolina -2.5
Florida State 2.5

Middle Tenn. St 3.5
UTEP -3

Indiana -7
Michigan State 7.5
Indiana took care of business yet again, but the pollsters still don't believe. MSU has defined "decent" so far this year - they played two good teams and got nuked 69-17. They played two cupcakes and won. And then they played four decent teams and split them 2-2, beating Maryland and Iowa and losing to Michigan and BC.

Oregon -15
Michigan 15
Oregon is probably going to win by double digits, and even though they're locked in to the playoffs, they need to keep winning to secure B1G title game slot. Michigan still has a chance to make a lot of noise with v Oregon, @ Indiana and @ Ohio State still coming up. Davis Warren is back at QB and gave them just enough last Saturday.

UCLA 7.5
Nebraska -7

Navy -12.5
Rice 12.5

Wyoming 7.5
New Mexico -7.5

Coastal Carolina -4.5
Troy 4.5

Massachusetts 18
Mississippi State -18

Hawaii 13.5
Fresno State -12.5

Arizona State -1
Oklahoma State 1.5

Texas A&M -2.5
South Carolina 2.5
USCe can really do some damage in the back half of the season, and maybe even backdoor their way into the playoffs at 9-3. They have a chance to knock out Clemson, and could land a blow here that would set up Texas (or @ Auburn next week) to KO ATM as well. ATM is pretty clean - in at 10-2, out at 9-3. So, a huge equity swing on this game for them as well

Georgia Southern 6
South Alabama -5.5

Louisville 10.5
Clemson -10.5
All of the bubble teams will be watching this one intently, as will all the other ACC contenders.

Wisconsin 3.5
Iowa -3.5

USC -2.5
Washington 3

Kentucky 16
Tennessee -15.5
Tennessee is in at 10-2 and out at 9-3

Colorado State 0.5
Nevada 1.5

TCU 3.5
Baylor -3

Pittsburgh 7.5
SMU -7
Arguably the biggest game of the week in terms of how much playoff equity will swing on the outcome. Both are undefeated in the ACC. Pitt is also undefeated overall, with two solid OOC wins over Cincy and WVU. SMU lost to BYU and nuked TCU.

SMU does not play Miami or Clemson, and closes with a soft-as-possible slate of vs BC, @ UVA and vs Cal. A win here KO's Pitt and gives them a three way tie at worst with Miami and Clemson for the ACCCG.

Pitt ends with vs UVA, vs Clemson, @ Louisville, @ BC. They also have the weakest power rating of the four teams, so even if they upset both SMU and Clemson, it wouldn't be insane if they lost 2 of the other 3.

But, with the ability to KO both SMU and Clemson, they easily control their own destiny.

I have no idea what the playoff committee would do with an 11-1 Pitt team (say they beat SMU and lose to Clemson) that doesn't play in the ACCCG.

Clemson is also interested in this game. They currently have no ranked wins, but are rooting for USCe and Pitt. That could be the differnence in a bid or not, if they win out and then lose to Miami in the ACCCG

I am trying to get the numbers to add up to 11 spots and I can't get it low enough. There is a decent chance that somebody with an "obviously in" resume gets left out

By far the weirdest scenario is SMU, Miami and Clemson all winning out which happens 7% of the time.

I have a hard time seeing the ACC getting 3 teams in, especially when they may only share Pitt as a top-25 win. But who gets left out? The title game loser, or the team that went 11-1 and didn't even play for the title game? If the latter, it's wild that the team that gets left out is actually in the best position?

Also, what if SMU beats 12-0 Miami in the title game? They'd have the auto bid, and surely 12-1 Miami cannot get left out, nor can 11-1 Clemson?

(And don't forget Pitt and VT lurking with title equity, though getting there probably requires knocking Clemson out of the equation)

Big-12 is also tough, just because there is so much parity

ISU is 16% to win out and 25% to finish 11-1 and beat K- State, and 11% to finish 11-1 with a loss to K-State
BYU is 18% to win out and 41% to finish 11-1. (they have h2h over KSU)
K State is 23% to win out and 47% to finish 10-2 (32% of that 47% is losing to ISU)
Colorado is 17% to win out and finish 10-2 (8-1 B12)

ISU, BYU and K-State all have a quality OOC win as well (ISU over Iowa, BYU over ranked SMU and K-State over Tulane)

What happens if ISU, BYU and K-State all finish 11-1? Same situation as the ACC, hard to see all three getting in, so do they take the champ game loser or the one who got left out?

I think Colorado is likely left out unless they win the conference

SEC is also chaotic, although at least some of that will resolve itself

There are six strong contenders:
Georgia
Texas
Tenn
Bama
ATM
Ole Miss
LSU

and three "if they somehow win out at 9-3 they might be in" teams:
Florida
Arkansas
South Carolina

I think Mizzou at 10-2 is behind all the 11-1 ACC/B12 teams, and the 11-2 ACC/B12 teams that lose in the title game, and honestly maybe even behind some 10-2 ACC/B12 teams.

Craziest scenario is Ole Miss > UGA
UGA > Tenn
LSU/Bama winner wins out
Texas/ATM loser wins out

Then you'd have:
ATM and Texas at 10-2 or 11-1
UGA at 10-2
Ole Miss at 10-2
Tennessee at 10-2
LSU/Bama winner at 10-2
six teams right there that would be really tough to deny

B1G is simpler:
Barring something super crazy, Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon are in, and 11-1 Indiana is in. 10-2 Illinois is out.

So you could get 3 "impossible to deny" teams from the ACC, B12, 6 from the SEC, 4 from the B1G and Notre Dame... 17 teams for 11 slots!

Obviously that will never happen, but right now I think it's about as likely we have 12 "impossible to deny" teams for 11 spots than it is we get a very neat 11 (or fewer)

13 is unlikely but definitely possible

If things break right, Week 14 could show us how awesome the new playoff is

You could have:
ATM and Texas both 9-2, playing a winner-take-all game playin game, where winner goes to the playoff and loser goes home

10-1 ISU playing 10-1 K-State playing a winner-take-all game playin game, where winner goes to the playoff and loser goes home

Then:
9-2 Ole Miss playing "win and in, lose and out" against their arch-rival Mississippi State who would love to spoil their season

9-2 UGA playing "win and in, lose and out" against their arch-rival Georgia Tech who would love to spoil their season

10-1 Notre Dame playing "win and in, lose and out" against their arch-rival USC who would love to spoil their season

10-1 Clemson playing "win and in, lose and forced to win ACCCG (or lose and out if it looks like they will get left out of the ACCCG)" against their arch-rival South Carolina who would love to spoil their season

9-2 Alabama playing "win and in, lose and out" against their arch-rival Auburn who would love to spoil their season

9-2 Ohio State playing "win and in, lose and out" against their arch-rival Michigan who would love to spoil their season

which means they'll lost their next game vs. Texas Tech *welp*. the "immediately losing after becoming ranked curse" is for real.

fwiw I don't think they are a top 25 team. There are teams ranked behind them that they would be dogs to on a neutral field.

LaLa's terrible defense has been hidden by terrible offenses for the last 3 games, but I do like their offense. I took Bobcats -3 but kinda wish I'd just made it a giant bet on o58. I'd still take the over until 61.

The other two games are battles of backup quarterbacks with FIU and SH intimating they *might* have their top guy with their opponents pretty much settled with their 3rd and 4th stringers who, to be sure, have actually been better than their original starters and backups. FIU and SH *NEED* their starters or they're completely incapable of doing anything at all. FIU's tried last week but decided "it hurts too much" and the Sammykats' guy no one even knows what the injury was which I *assume* means a concussion but the bad kind.

I have them at 30th, but there is less than a point separating them from #23

When their next lines update, they could easily be right there in the low 20s

Their pass defense has been good - holding opponents to 5.8 YPA, generating 3.1 sacks at a 9.9% sack rate, picking off 0.9 passes per game, and only allowing 185 net passing yards. That's good!

The run defense has been bad but not cataclysmic. The offensive pass game is pretty good. The run game is bad.

looking at SEC tiebreaks again

There are 7 realistic contenders:
4-1 UGA
3-1 Texas
5-0 ATM
3-1 Tenn
3-1 LSU
3-2 Bama
3-2 Ole Miss

The multi way tiebreaks for 2 loss teams are gonna be pretty nuts. Didn't set up a monte carlo, so just trying to eyeball it

The teams that played the most of the 7 contenders:
Florida 6 (jfc)
Arkansas, Miss St and Oklahoma 5
Kentucky, USCe, UGA 4
Auburn, Vandy, Bama, LSU 3
Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennesee, Texas, ATM 2

Unsurprisingly, 6 of the 7 contenders are the ones that dodged all the other good teams. UGA is the only one that plays 4 (and three of those are road games!)

Obviously h2hs are important (as is "highest rated team that you both played"), but mutual records are the first tiebreak.

Since 6 of the 7 teams played UF, the odds are pretty high that a loss to UF is the first tiebreak in a multi way tie (Alabama is the only one that doesn't play them)
Nobody has lost to them yet, but they have four in a row coming up

Arkansas, Miss St and Oklahoma are also likely to be used in a tiebreak.

Arkansas has beaten Tennessee, lost to LSU and ATM, and plays Ole Miss and Texas. If Ole Miss loses they're dead anyway, but tha'ts a game UT doesn't want to lose

Mississippi State probably isn't good enough to beat anyone

Oklahoma has already lost to Texas, Ole Miss and UT, and has Bama and LSU on deck. So where this would matter, if LSU loses another game, Bama is a bad one bc of H2H and then UF is bad, and then OU is also bad. So the only really losable game for them is Vandy at home. (Although LSU also has a win over Arkansas which is good)

I have ATM as the most likely team to make the SECCG, followed by UGA then Texas (Vegas has Texas then UGA)

"playoffs will make the regular season meaningless" - they

they were wrong

this is the best season ever. All the games in the top 25 matter from here till December. If we were still stuck at 4 we would only be worried about the top 6 or so team's games.

great sec champ game calculator here:
https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?spo...

If it goes chalk it's going to be Georgia/Aggy, Texas needs an upset of one of those two to get there.

resume rankings

Odds you would achieve the same record or better against this schedule:

(I used to use a ~#5 rating bc of the 4 team playoff, but now I am using a ~#10 rating)

1 UGA 18%
2 Miami 20%
3 BYU 26%
4 Penn State 28%

5 Oregon 29%
6 ISU 42%
7 ATM 55%
8 Pitt 60%

9 Texas 62%
10 Tennessee 64%
11 Indiana 68%
12 K State 68%

13 LSU 68%
14 Ohio State 72%
15 Alabama 73%
16 Notre Dame 80%

17 SMU 82%
18 Clemson 90%

Even with a loss, UGA comes in at #1
at bama and at texas are both games the #10 team would lose a bit more than 70% of the time. Neutral against Clemson is a coin flip. At Kentucky and vs Auburn are both real games

Notre Dame's schedule is absolute trash
The #10 team would be favored by an average of 22 points against the slate ND has faced

Miami's schedule is deceptively tough
Four "real games" including under the radar tough games @ Florida and @ Louisville who are both better than their records indicate. A #10 team wins those games 54% and 59% respectively. VT and @ Cal are also not pushovers, coming in at around 80% each (which makes it less surprising that Miami could've / should've lost both)

Indiana's resume is bad, as we know - what is impressive is the margin of victory across those games, not the opponents themselves

The most telling stat in sports is how badly you beat bad teams.

IU has waffle stomped every (admittedly bad-to-meh) team they've played.

They have not allowed a single point in the 1st quarter and have not trailed at any point this season.

They're not a fav to beat OSU, or even to go 11-1 most likely, but they're a solid team.

I have them at 62% to go 11-1 or better

They're 71% this week at Michigan State

They should be about 79% against Michigan at home

I have them at 14% against Ohio State. Fanduel has them at the vig-free line of 18%, although the juice is typically higher on the dog, so call that 16%

And then they should be something like 98% at home against Purdue in the last game

Nobody tell Brian Kelly New Mexico State's guy just hit a 57 yard fg that was held properly.

Also, what a time to be alive

I no longer live in Indiana, but if IU is indeed 10-1 or better going into that game, I'm flying home and surprising my Purdue alum best friend with tickets to that game. He's gonna sit there and watch it.

lol

Also worth noting FIU's kicker does pretty well despite the large prominent knee brace on his non-kicking leg.

...and on the subject of kickers I should warn you that LaTech's kicker is what you'd call a knuckleballer. I'm not sure he does it accidentally but it doesn't matter if they always go in (narrator; they don't).

please live blog if this happens

Oh and definitely don't tell him he hit another from 54!

holy moly FIU won and covered as a favorite...my records indicate that is the first time that's happened in McIntyre's 3+ years there