Playing AK on a QQQ flop ( 1/2 )

Once he calls the flop, which I probably would have checked, I'm not putting in any more money unless I hit.

Probably would just check flop too. Definitely check/ folding once villain calls flop and we brick turn.

Please don't put the answer in the initial post! Let people chew it over for at least 24 hours before letting the forum know what happened (I'm sure admin will say something similar to you shortly).

In a standard heads-up pot you have a massive range advantage on all trips boards due to your preponderance of overpairs - IIRC these boards give the best possible range advantage for the raiser vs the caller. However, the fact that UTG is all-in for $25 changes things considerably as it means about half the pot is protected on the flop. This means you are forced to play a lot more passively and you go from perhaps range betting (as you would in a heads-up pot) to betting a pretty straightforward, linear range for value of maybe 77+. As played, once you bet flop and villain calls, it's time to shut down. Even the biggest calling stations can't find that many non-boat calls on a QQQ flop in a protected pot. Additionally, if you check the turn, he is likely to check back if he just has overcards (due to the pot being largely protected) which allows you to at a minimum see the river, and perhaps even get to showdown. If he bets the turn after you check to him, it's time to let it go - and if he reveals himself to be donkey-betting overcards in a protected pot, well good for him lol but it's obviously the wrong play. Your AK is actually pretty decent in terms of showdown value on this board, even up to the QQQ7 turn, and I would be more than happy to check this down and hope the AK high is good.

Weird spot at this stack depth and with the one player already All-in. In general, think I would try to get to showdown as cheap as possible in this spot. I don't think jamming is too bad here though because I think you have the best hand a good amount of the time (and you have solid equity if you get called). But this guy isn't going to fold a full house, so don't be surprised when you get called by 33 in this spot.

As said above, leave the results out for 24 hours in the future for better advice.

AK is a pretty big hand on QQQ. I think OOP especially, you want to be betting TINY with your whole range on that flop id say, especially with the side pot and low SPR.

Im range betting like $25 otf, intending to check/fold turn, and if it checks thru im figuring ge doesbt have a pair and im check calling smallish river bets.

Youre turning a good hand into a semibluff, folding everything worse, get called by everything better, so you have a 6 outer. I dont like that at all. You could do that with JT and get the exsct same semibluff properties against PPs that call. (I would also bet small with JTs as my range bet strat, but id find a jam more justifiable with that hand)

This guy is splashy/bluffy, though. If you check and he bets, do you just fold? What do you do on a blank river? Check/fold?

I don't want him to see a free river and I don't want to chop w/ another A. We have less than a pot-size bet left, so I just go for it. Also, he might fold a small pair.

Think postflop is trivial - you're 30 bb deep preflop, you're like 1.5 SPR on the flop. I don't see ever folding here - as played on the turn there's a mix of getting called by better hands, getting some pairs to fold, and maybe a rare call with AQ or something who knows. I just think in a 1/2 game I'm never folding postflop and each street betting vs checking is pretty close.

Oops, can't chop w/ another A unless Q comes, but I still don't want him to see a free river or to bet into me as a bluff -- unless my plan is to call. And I'd love for him to fold a small pp.

there is only 1 card in the deck that causes AK to chop with Ax.

If you bet tiny OTF and check turn, I dont think V is very likely to bet the turn with his air because he is expecting that he is drawing to 6 outs once you check. I think he will basically just bet his PPs, and then he will wait to the river to bluff with everything else, which is why im check/folding turn and check/calling river after my flop bet.

Also "I dont want him to see a free river card" is just another way of saying "im folding out all the hands im beating." This logic is nonsensical, because if youre folding out all the hands youre beating, why not just make the same move but with a significantly weaker hand (like JTs) so that you can instead fold out all the hands youre LOSING to. Medium strength hands like this are looking for a cheap showdown, checking because youre deathly afraid of every single draw and V bluffing you is scared money poker.

If he was splashy enough id probably just check call down, easy game. But its 1/2 so... i dont know how "splashy" this guy really is.

I already mentioned the chop mistake. I'd do the same thing with any hand I raise pre-flop with, even JT -- if I got there this way. I want him to fold small pairs, and I do want him to pay to see a river. If he has worse than AK and is calling my shove, I absolutely want him to. Nothing to do with scared money -- more like trying to make money from someone who calls with 60%. If he calls with a small pair, so be it. If you don't want to shove the turn, don't bet the flop.

FWIW, I'm raising to $75+ pre-flop and betting more on the flop or just checking to see what this V does. If I bet the flop, the trivial money left is going in on the turn.

Edit: My reply is based on what I would do now that we are on the turn. I would not be here this way, but if I were, I'd shove.

That just seems like an overplay on every street. You might be right that i shouldnt fold AK if reads are correct, but id elect to call down in some fashion. Beyond the flop and turn which was already discussed, 7.5x pre after the shorty jams is just gonna get you HU for $25.

FWIW, AK chops with AX on 6 cards: 1 Queen, 3 Sevens, and 2 Aces.

What seems like an overplay? We are here -- OP got us here. Now what do you do? You haven't even given advice to OP on the turn as played -- you've only stated how you would play the hand -- and we have to assume you'd raise to $60 pre because you haven't mentioned an alternative. I wouldn't play the hand this way, either, but here we are. What's your advice to OP?

I think check call vs check fold is V dependent ott (and close in ev), and if it checks thru OTT im checking and basically never folding river.

I think the correct line is to either check or bet VERY small on the flop, like 1/6 pot, around $25.

Any PP is a boat. We have the nut no pair, so it's the best bluffing hand, but it's still just a bluff.

At first, I thought I hated the turn jam, but...I dunno. We block AA/KK, and have AA/KK and a lot of Qx in our range, whereas BTN mostly doesn't.

If we think V re-raises pre with TT+, and folds turn with 99 and worse PP's, I guess it can't be terrible.

I still don't know if I like it though. Would we jam Qx or AA/KK on the turn? V might doubt it, and look us up with any PP, thinking we're likely jamming with AK.

I think it would be more credible if we check-called flop, check-called turn, and then jammed river. The downside of course is we never see the river if V jams turn.