NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

New Mexico State's coach helped; on an early 3rd and 10 past midfield, a really low catch was ruled a reception just short of a first down. The team hurries to the line but whistle blows before they can snap it and just as the announcers notice the ball probably hit the ground. NMSU guy called a timeout to challenge the ruling...that it was short of the line to gain. Back from commercial, "Incomplete pass", 4th and 10. Great plan!

This is CUSA, they really will let you get the snap off 3/4 of the time. I was kind of hoping the ruling would mention whether it *would have* been a first down if it wasn't not a catch.

Are we getting college football playoff rankings before end of season

Yes, on Tuesday (election day, lol)

I have the best Vegas line for every G4 team + ND to make the playoffs, and it adds up to 11.48

I have my best estimate for each team, and it adds up to 11.24. I am really struggling to get it down to 11.0

Biggest diffs:
I have Tennessee at 73% to go 10-2 or better, Vegas has them at 63% to playoff.
Their resume is actually not that great, Alabama at home is the only big win, and they otherwise played a very soft SEC schedule, avoiding Texas, ATM, LSU, Ole Miss, Mizzou.
So, maybe it's right that in some worlds 10-2 Tenn is squeezed out as the bubble team

I have Indiana 61% to go 11-1 or better, and Vegas only has them 42% to go. Even if Indiana loses to OSU by 40, idk? They'd be 11-1 with no great wins and one terrible loss, and huge MOV in those wins, which is Notre Dame's best case scenario? (ND would have one quality win). I just don't understand how Vegas is getting to 42%, it seems insane to me. We already see the line for the OSU game and the Michigan State game, it's not possible for my numbers to be that far off.

Then the biggest diff, which would solve my whole problem is I have SMU at 45% and Vegas has them at 29%. I think SMU is 43% to win out. Again, we already see the Pitt line. Even if I subtract 2.5 points from SMU's rating, they're still 30% to win out. And then I think there's a 7% chance SMU loses a game and makes the ACCCG anyway, and so let's say they win 2% of that, that's another free 2%.

In the other direction:

Vegas has Notre dame at 61% and I have them at 44%. Notre Dame is out if they lose again. They have an absolutely abysmal loss already (by far the worst of any contender), they will probably end facing 1 ranked team, their schedule is so soft that the #10 team would be an average favorite of 21 points across their 12 games. A second loss would be catastrophic if it comes to FSU, UVA or Army, and if it comes @ USC in the final game, that's against a 7-5 team and you'd have lost your last game. A second catastrophic loss would make them drawing dead, I'd have them behind 9-3 teams.

Vegas has Colorado at 14% I have them at 5%. I think they pretty much need to win the conference, their resume isn't that great. I have them at 19% to win out, then they need 2 of 3 of K-State to lose, ISU to lose 2 or BYU to lose 2. Then, they need to win the B12CG. I have all that at about 3%, then gave them another 2% for going 10-2 and chaos everywhere else.

Vegas has Mizzou at 5%, I have them at like 2%. Their sched is terrible and both their losses are gigantic blowouts. They're dead.

Vegas has BYU at 53% I have them at 45% but that feels low? They have two solidly ranked wins, which is very rare. 22% to win out, and they're in even if they lose the B12CG by 50. 42% to win out, and lots of stuff can happen. They can make the B12CG and win and get the autobid. They can make the B12CG and lose and still get a bid. They can make the B12CG and lose and get left out. Not sure if they can miss the B12CG given H2H over KState? Maybe some kind of 4 way tiebreak?

Vegas has Clemson at 65%, I have them at 50%? Again, this feels low, but the space has to come from somewhere? First of all, they're 41% to just win the ACC and get the auto bid. Then there's some worlds where SMU/Clemson/Miami all win out, Clemson gets left out, SMU loses big to Miami and Clemson goes. Then there's some world where Clemson goes to the ACCCG and loses, but makes it anyway. The only scenario where they're definitely out is if they lose a game and then also do not make the ACCCG.

Pitt, Vegas has at 17%, but I am guessing around 10%. Their resume is actually not bad, but their power rating is the worst. They're dogs @ SMU, vs Clemson and @ Louisville, so they're only 1.7% to win out. They're 4.3% to beat SMU and Clemson but lose to somebody else. In this scenario they go to the ACCCG, where they likely lose to Miami, but they've also killed off SMU and Clemson to open some spots and now have a very nice resume, so they sometimes go here even when they lose.

Then, they're 8% to beat EITHER SMU or Clemson (along with the rest of their games) and finish 11-1 but almost certainly not in the ACCCG. I have no idea what happens here. They'll have solid OOC wins over Cincy and WVU, they'll have a good win over SMU or Clemson and another solid win @ Louisville. You can't put them in over the ACCG loser who beat them, and probably not over Miami either, so would the ACC really get a 3rd team when that 3rd team is Pitt? But then again, their resume stacks up fine with 11-1 Notre Dame or 11-1 Indiana?

Vegas has K-State at 36% and I think it's lower, but not sure how much. They're 23% to win out which guarantees them a spot in the B12CG. They could lose there and get left out or win and lock in, or lose and squeeze in. They're 15% to lose a game and then beat ISU, in which case they're likely in the B12CG. If they lose again, they're dead, but if they win, they're in obviously. They're 33% to finish 10-2 with a loss to Iowa State. Given the H2H loss to BYU, they're probably staying home in this scenario, and are probably left out of the playoff.

I kinda agree on Notre Dame but the win over the Aggies may get them in if Aggies finish great. Still doesn't make up a bunch though.

Plus if they are ranked like 3rd going into USC will they really drop to 13th.

I don't know the answer to this but now I kind of want to see it happen, just because the idea of a team that lost at home to a MAC team being ranked #3 in the country is hilarious. That MAC team that is currently 1-3 in the MAC.

not to be a pedant, but it's likely that at least 1 if not 2 teams > 12th get in as conf champs, so that would mean that the bubble team would be the team finishing in 12th or 11th.

But yeah, ND isn't sniffing #3 even if they win out

They lost to the NINTIETH ranked team for god's sake. AT HOME. That's just unheard of.

They play 5 teams rated 70th or lower (and LOST to one of them) and then 3 more teams in the 50-60 range

KENNESAW STATE is playing right now.

Grab the +24, thank me later.

Sorry; pure numbers play (but I did wait for a -23.5 to appear).

At least Kennesaw isn't facing the dreaded "Holliday is wearing their shirt" curse. That would be Jacksonville State.

Huge game tonight for the AAC and MWC

Vegas absolutely loves Tulane to win the AAC relative to what I think their odds should be, but Army and Navy really break the typical point spread to moneyline conversion since their games tend to be lower scoring and less volatile.

Tulane will be favored over Memphis, then Navy, then Army in the AACCG. If they lose tonight, they'd become a wrecking ball, knocking other AAC teams out.

Boise is ahead regardless if they win out, but UNLV and Boise (if they lose another game) may be behind the current AAC champion if that champ wins out, but ahead of them if they lose another game.

first of all it's Tennessee

(They are gonna smash us, but **** em)

I agree only that ND is out at 10-2 most of the time. We have a 30 to 40 ranked strength of schedule. A&M, Army/Navy are live to win their conferences.

In a vacuum this is usually going to be true, but going 10-2 involves already losing to NIU at home and then losing to any of the remaining teams on their schedule, which would all be catastrophic losses.

There is always a funny dance with the second order resume / power. The first order dance is how you treat somebody like BYU or Pitt who is clearly a decent team that has run insanely hot, so they have a bad power rating but a great resume. The committee (and I) tend to want to reward these teams and give them a shot at the playoff bc that's what the sport is about, and that's fine.

But then the second order dance gets a little awkward when these teams are ranked in the top-10... now do teams that played them get credit for "beating a top-10 team" or does the committee rate BYU appropriately when thinking about BYU, but then use their power rating when thinking about other team's resume? (which is how I would do it).

Like, of course 11-1 BYU should go to the playoff and 7-5 South Carolina should not, but should other contenders really get that much more credit for beating BYU than South Carolina?

(I mention all of this specifically bc I don't know how a loss to Army would be treated. On paper, it would be another catastrophic loss from a power rating perspective, but from a resume perspective, losing to a 12-0 team isn't that bad. Although they would then have a dfiferent problem which is how could they ever make the playoffs ahead of Army, even if Army lost a game?)

https://www.si.com/college-football/an-i...

The Army talk makes my heart warm.

Solid piece here from Pat Forde.

Was the crowd chanting “**** big noon” on gameday? Lmao

LOL Arky

Andy Reid yelling bundlerooski at me

My day is complete :/

LOL Buckeyes

WILOLOLOLL HOWARD LOLOLOL

putting the WIL in Will

Arky flagged for the defensive clap

Fumble went over the top of the pylon, PSU ball... maybe?

probably

A top down view would help

i can't believe they actually called that a touchback.

i 100% think it was, but i doubted they would be willing to change the game like that.