5/10/20 Preflop spot with 2-7 bounty

You can still go 500-525. SPR of about 1.0 with button. Or you could just jam or split. Something like jam KK, small 4b AA and QQ, jam AK 2/3 of the time and 4bet small 1/3 of the time. At this SPR from out of position you probably don't want to be mixing many 4b bluffs like A5s. You are probably just going to call off a 5b unless btn is a mega nit. But in that case you might consider hero folding instead of 3b hands like AKo.

I wouldn't play cold calls here, folding all else. AQo is not close at all. JJ is fairly close though (for cold 4b). Depends how wide btn is.

Cool, yeah $500 could work. I don’t have much experience with minclick sizing and didn’t really consider it at the table. And you’re advocating to fold all the hands I listed if playing jam/fold. Thought AQo might be close if BTN is 3betting 7/2 at 100% which I assume he is, but I didn’t run any ranges in stove yet. I feel like AQo is an easy jam for $1200 but jamming for $1700 gives me pause. Btw I’m always putting in the money in close spots bcuz it’s a home game.

I had AQo by the way.

TY for feedback.

I think the guy who’s 3betting on BTN has all 72, all AJ, all KQ, a bunch of suited aces and suited broadways, 88 or 99+. I guess he’s folding AQ- to my jam and is probably calling off TT+. Dunno what he does with 99/88 since he might assume I have some 7/2. BTN 3 bettor thinking about ranges and I don’t know what he assumes about my range.

The overlay of winning $400 seems pretty significant to me in some spots, I guess I shouldn’t be jamming 7/2 here but with $400 dead in the pot and $400 bounty overlay it’s pretty tempting if I think I have some fold equity.

I appreciate your appreciation, but I deleted it. I’m gonna have to come back to this with fresh eyes in the morning and actually do some math.

Thanks ! The problem is I don’t really know what any ranges look like in this game since I just started playing. Fumbling around with stove I see that I can probably justify a jam for $1700 with 7/2 if I can get 50% fold equity. Not sure if that’s a reasonable exploit or not since I don’t have a feel for the game. Maybe I throw it in once in a while until people start calling me down super light and then lay off it?

Is 2x-2.2x a theoretically correct 4bet size also from oop?

It can be. You just have to consider the spr. One example of this in GTO Wizard would be 6 max straddle+ante, 50 straddles deep, UTG opens 2 straddles, CO calls, btn 3b 7.5 straddles, the cold 4bet size for sb, bb, and straddles is 15 straddles or jam. Normally 4b size from OOP is larger but you have to consider if the SPR is going to be really low you can go smaller. Also our cold 4 sizing should be smaller than our raise first in/4bet size. And the range is much tighter/ mire linear.

It's important when we consider 4b size to closely consider stack depth and not auto pilot. Especially considering live poker will have so many different stack sizes, RFI sizes, and more likely to have cold callers in between which also affects spr.

Thanks!

4! small does seem viable and I should consider it. But feels very borderline with stack sizes, like, with $1500 stacks I wonder if jamming is the only option.

Regardless, about linear vs polar, if I have no flats in a given spot so in other words am playing raise/fold, I think I need to go linear. I should never consider folding a hand which has more EV so that I can raise a hand with less EV vs villain range. (Notice btw that 7/2 can even make its way into some linear ranges in this game, esp when stacks are small, because the $400 bounty is so significant. Still not sure when to play 7/2 but it feels like 7/2 is probably a fold in this spot in the SB)

Cold 4b out of position at this stack generally should be linear and it is more hands that should stack off if jammed on. AK, QQ+. You are getting called or jammed on so often. For example, at 90bb, no rake, LJ open 3, HJ calls, btn 3b, this is the SB range in GTO Wizard:

All the low frequency bluffs except 66 are negative EV so likely precision errors.

Even if we remove the HJ flatter who probably never flats with strong hands like QQ like solver will do sometimes, and make it 80bb, the range doesn't get much wider:

The other thing to consider is that if the 1k stack LJ jams and the others fold, you probably have to call off hands like A5s.

Also, QQ and AKo aren't necessarily super high EV 4 bets in these spots. They are already balancing out your cold 4 range where the main threat is that you can have AA and KK. The fact that you can have AK here is already enough to allow you to get action from AK, QQ, and some worse hands when you do have AA and KK sometimes. You don't always have to have hands like AQs or A5s in your cold 4 range.

Thanks for running it!
Def OK to remove HJ the dude was VPIPing 70% and 3betting 15-20%.

Can you hover over AQo and see what the EV of jamming is? Want to see how close it is because with the 7-2 game and meta stuff (wanting to appear gambly to get invited back to home game) might push it over the edge.

Okay, ran some rough numbers and it looks like I didn't need to panic delete that post. I couldn't find a way to make shoving AQo/99 any less than like a $90 mistake.

(Looking at some MSS spots gave me some pause that you could push much more marginal equity advantages against the raiser for a 7x shove, but the 13% combined probabilities of all the other remaining players having us smashed seems to wipe all that out.)

Like I said, the factors you're listing might be enough to nudge TT into a shove, but that's assuming they're not outweighed by BTN actually flatting a lot more/3bing a lot less than a bot. If ranges are narrow enough that the possibility of 72 makes their range much wider, than ranges aren't wide enough to shove AQo, if that makes sense.

Maybe I'm confused about what a linear vs polar 4B range looks like here. Looking at those charts, I'd think of that range as polar, not linear.

Maybe it'd be more polar and less linear if we took QQ and AKo out of it. I think I wouldn't have those in my cold 4B range, precisely because we are going to get jammed on a lot, and I hate stacking off with those hands. So if taking QQ and AKo out of the range makes it more polar, I'd be in favor of that.

However we describe it, when the 72 game is on, if we're using a smaller 4B size, and / or if we're ever adding 72 to our range (any range, not just our 4B'ing range), then I'd think we'd also want to add some combos that interact with 72 in a positive way, like 87s and 76s, perhaps as replacements for K7s and A8s/A6s, and replacing 66 with 77 and 22.

My thinking is that we want to have some 77, 22, and 7x in our range, to connect with boards that have a 7 or 2 on them, or both, and potentially cooler opponents with 72, or opponents who think we just have 72 when we actually have a set. Likewise, if we raise with 77 or 22, or just 7x, it makes it less likely an opponent is coming over the top with 72, and more likely they're raising for value, not as a bluff.

If the flop comes 872 or 762, we're coolering 72 with 87 and 76. If the flop comes AK7 or AK2, we're going to stack AK with 77 or 22. Boards like A87 and K76 are likely to seem innocuous to AX and KX, but if we have 77, 87, and 76 in our range, we smashed them.

I may be entirely wrong about all of it. I'm just trying to think about it logically, and imagine all the possible post-flop scenarios where anyone can have 72 as part of their range, and be betting it for value on some boards, or as a bluff on most others.

Dude this post is absolutely wild. You don't want to have a 7 or 2 because you want them to have 72. And you're tacitly saying you are going to just cold call AKo and QQ? That's pretty bad, especially inviting the initial raiser in the pot while we are out of position. And it is saying you have only AA and KK there pretty much.

And why are you confused thinking this range is polar, not linear? It is extremely heavily concentrated in AK and QQ+, literally the strongest hands. A polar range would have way more hands like A5s, KJs, KTs and might be flatting more hands like QQ, IE the range LJ plays after HJ 3b.

We're playing 85 straddles deep and QQ is the third best hand in poker. AK has great equity vs most hands and blocks the two best hands. Unless btn is extremely nitty, we cannot be afraid to stack off with AKo and QQ.

I would shove. I don't see why you want to induce a shove from 72 when it is 32% against AQo. 37% if 72s.

What are MSS spots?

Not sure 7/2 influences things very much but maybe a little. If someone is playing 1% more hands on top of a tight 10% range then having those extra hands can lead to greater fold equity of about 5- 10% in a spot. Which is something.

It’s complicated situation because multiway and I don’t really know how to work it out by hand.

Let’s disregard BB and Straddle even though they could wake up with a hand some of the time. So let’s just assume those players always fold. We can safely assume HJ always folds because of profile.

Here are my rough numbers:

LJ 3bets top 10% plus 72 (so he 3bets 11% in this spot). Let’s say he calls versus the jam about 4% of all hands (roughly JJ+,AK,AQs, maybe TT). Under this assumptions LJ folds 7/11 = 63% and calls 4/11= 37%.

Let’s assume LJ is opening top 25% and calls top 5% or so. Under this assumption LJ folds 80% and calls 20%

If either LJ or BTN calls the jam we have about 34-36% equity versus a top 4-5% range. Let’s say our equity is 35% when called.

So EV of our jam when BTN calls is about .35*3560-1700 = -$450

EV of our jam when LJ calls and BTN folds is about
.35*2330-1000=-$180

I’m going to assume that whenever LJ calls then BTN always folds (due to blocker effects it’s kinda reasonable assumption and also analyzing EV in main pot and side pot is crazy amount of work and I’m lazy).

So about 37% of the time we lose $450 and 20% of the time we lose $180 and the remaining 43% of the time everyone folds and we win the $250+$120+35=$400 in the middle.

So the EV of jam is about
.37*(-450)+.2*(-180)+.43*(400)= -$30

If there’s a spot where I can jam for about -$30 EV and it helps me generate a loose image and get invited back to the game, I’ll take it.

But those are just my first assumptions and first calculations. Maybe those assumptions and ranges are not reasonable. Idk.

I think my answer is actually a bit better than the above because my fold equity should be a bit higher than 43%. If BTN has a hand to call 37% of the time and LJ has a hand to call 20% of the time , then they both have a hand to call about .2*.37 =7% of the time (neglecting blocker effects). and at least one of them will call quite around 20%+37%-7% =50%.

So my fold equity might be closer to 50%, and EV is probably quite a bit better than -$30.

Then again BB or straddle might have a hand some of the time as well and to be honest I don’t even remember their stack sizes, although I am pretty confident they are on the smaller end, around $500-$1000 because they were short-buying for must of the night. So that makes the answer a bit worse in the end but probably not too much worse.

Seems like a close spot with AQo now that I have run some numbers. But again, idk maybe my assumptions are funny or I made a calculation error above.

Ehh my whole explanation is a bit of a mess and this part in particular should say I’m assuming BTN 3bets top 10% plus 72…not LJ. LJ is the opener. Anyway I couldn’t edit in time before the post locked so oh well…

MSS=Medium Stack Strategy

Maybe my Stove’s broken, but I get 31.5% equity for AQo vs TT+/AK/AQs, which is accounting for most of the difference in our calcs (TT has 36%, which is what made me put it in the close category). I also accounted for the times BB, straddle or HJ wake up with a hand, which does notably tax our EV.

And this is all assuming an 11% 3b from BTN which I think is just extremely optimistic for a live game, even a splashy one because people adjust by flatting a lot more.

Yeah, you’re right. I think I lost 3-4% on the equity versus BTN because I accidentally threw in AQo for BTN when I stoved. Which I had not intended to do. Should have been more careful. Guess my figure for my EV when BTN calls should be about -$580 rather than -$450. So my overall EV in my first calculation should be about .37*(-580)+.2*(-180)+.43*(400) or -$80.

I think the 11% 3bet is probably okay, many pot at the table were 3bet pre flop generally, very few limped pots, lots of short stacks were limp shoving hands like baby pocket pairs and ATo (LJ did this a few times) so game is generally loose, plus BTN was is TAG and had 3bet in a lot of the pots he had entered thus far. He did not seem like the type of player to not ISO KQo just in my personal opinion of being at the table with him and observing him for 4 hours, which is how I get to 10% ish for the 3b percentage. I asked him later how wide he thought he was there and he said he had JTs and big cards and stuff like that when he 3bets. Everyone is inflating themselves when they talk about how loose they are, but to me, this felt consistent with my observation of him.

I had also seen a pot recently in the game between two other players (not involved in my hand) where action went open, 3bet, 4bet all in for $1200, call and both players showed down AQ. So there’s quite a bit of aggression in the game. That hand might have been with the $40 straddle though. But still shows how people treat the dollar amount of bets in the game.

There were two players at the table who were flatting a lot but i do not characterize them as TAGs. They are loose passives.