2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
I agree. He’s a psychopath and an ogre who shouldn't be anywhere near office but that doesn’t mean we get to start inventing things he said. He’s bad enough on his own and I don’t think it does anything good to reach like these headlines are doing.
But he did say what's being attributed to him. He didn't say a theoretical like "I bet she would think twice about going to war if guns were pointed at her". That's sane-washing what he actually said, which was this:
"Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her"
They might seem like the same thing but the "let's put her" is what makes his comment so dangerous. He's the active protagonist in his sentence.
It amazes me how little cutting gov't spending is talked about leading up to the last few elections as I think it is one of the best things a president can do for America today. Usually the amount of spending (as a % of GDP) that the gov't is currently doing is reserved for times of world war and major recessions, but here we are with fairly low unemployment and a growing economy and the gov't can't find a place it doesn't want to give money to.
I find it super interesting that we have one candid
The reality is no party will cut defense or Social Security or Medicare
I still always shake my head at how bought both parties are bought by the pharmacare industry as well . When I see the comparison of drug prices in the USA compared to Canada and the USA . Take the new wonder drug Ozempic in the USA over $1000 in Canada and Europe around $300
Does anyone actually think if Trump wins that Elon will shave 2 trillion in spending cuts
If Trump wins he will increase the deficit and if Kamala wins she will increase the deficit
The reality is no party will cut defense or Social Security or Medicare
I still always shake my head at how bought both parties are by the pharmacare industry as well . When I see the comparison of drug prices in the USA compared to Canada and the USA . Take the new wonder drug Ozempic in the USA over $1000 in Canada and Europe around $300
Does anyone actually think if Trump wins that Elon will shave 2 trillion in spending cuts
If Trump wins he will increase the deficit and if Kamala wins she wi
Simple rule of politics: Only the minority party (ie, party not in power at any given time) complains about government spending and deficits.
But he did say what's being attributed to him. He didn't say a theoretical like "I bet she would think twice about going to war if guns were pointed at her". That's sane-washing what he actually said, which was this:
"Let's put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her"
They might seem like the same thing but the "let's put her" is what makes his comment so dangerous. He's the active protagonist in his sentence.
I interpreted it as saying let’s put her on the front line and see how she feels about war, which is not the same thing as let’s (we) shoot her in the face or she should face a firing squad, etc. The scenario he’s describing is that of a soldier, not an execution.
IMO the early voting trends don't tell us anything about the outcome. Too many cross-currents between Republicans being told to vote early this election vs their tradition of voting on election day.
They obviously tell you SOMETHING….swing states will be close Texas or Minnesota NY won’t be. The question is whether they tell us anything nontrivial and not in polls. And I think it’s very hard to get any signal there. I see a lot of leftist YouTubers saying Harris is obviously in the lead because of early voting and trash republican polls skewing models. But I don’t see it. Non Republican polls also show Trump up in PA sometimes and I really can’t get anything from early voting either. Harris or Trump winning the tipping point state by 2+ is definitely in the 75% range of outcomes.
I interpreted it as saying let’s put her on the front line and see how she feels about war, which is not the same thing as let’s (we) shoot her in the face or she should face a firing squad, etc. The scenario he’s describing is that of a soldier, not an execution.
Like I said, when we have to start parsing crazy statements like these then we've already lost the plot. That he's even imagining his political opponent having guns pointed at her is the problem. The fact he did so in the course of a supposed theoretical about war is incidental. I posit he would devise other theoreticals that involve guns pointed at her as well.
They obviously tell you SOMETHING….swing states will be close Texas or Minnesota NY won’t be. The question is whether they tell us anything nontrivial and not in polls. And I think it’s very hard to get any signal there. I see a lot of leftist YouTubers saying Harris is obviously in the lead because of early voting and trash republican polls skewing models. But I don’t see it. Non Republican polls also show Trump up in PA sometimes and I really can’t get anything from early voting either. Harris
Well yes, they obviously tell us who is voting early and who isn't. But that tells us nothing about the outcome of the election.
I play baccarat with my friends and early voting analysis on the internet feels exactly like analysis of baccarat hands.
In baccarat most people are looking at patterns that don’t exist and drawing bad conclusions from them. Nevertheless, with a sophisticated approach of looking at previous patterns, primarily through card counting, you can improve your odds. The past hands in baccarat do matter!
But they dont matter in the sense that they do in a game like black jack, where you have more control of the outcome and can gain a much bigger edge.
Its the same thing here in my eyes. Early voting analysis on the internet heavily consists of seeing patterns that arent there and an overestimation of what those votes mean. Nevertheless- still useful information someone could get an edge from.
there is no reason to talk about spending because the national debt is a made up number that doesn't matter. the us government is the largest holder of us debt. it's a silly talking point used occasionally by both sides because it the word "debt" sounds scary.
if the national debt ever becomes a real issue(which is extremely unlikely) we will have far bigger problems than the national debt becoming a real issue. like world wars between nuclear powers type worries.
Like I said, when we have to start parsing crazy statements like these then we've already lost the plot. That he's even imagining his political opponent having guns pointed at her is the problem. The fact he did so in the course of a supposed theoretical about war is incidental. I posit he would devise other theoreticals that involve guns pointed at her as well.
I don’t think we should disregard the details because of the speaker but we can agree to disagree.
what a great week. told you so. today we are justifying...checks notes....pointing multiple guns at our rivals face! So presidential. THIS ONE SECURED MY VOTE FOR SURE....but I can still be swayed by MORE CRAZINESS!
I don’t think we should disregard the details because of the speaker but we can agree to disagree.
You argued we need to account for context when evaluating Trump's statements. I agree. The context is Trump has recently threatened the use of the military against his rivals (ie, the "enemy within"), so when he speaks about guns pointed at his rivals we need to look past beyond semantics so that we can parse what he actually means and thinks.
I have PB on ignore, can someone just tell me if he’s betting on kamala +135 to take penn or +170 to take it all now that he knows the fix is in? Seems like free money
Can someone please relay to StoppedRainingMen that I'm not interested in betting on the election since I'm on ignore and out of his or her radio range.
When we have to start parsing words to explain why a Presidential candidate is openly discussing having guns trained on his political opponent's face then I think the debate has shifted too far away from the obvious reality that the man is simply unhinged.
Right, let's go back to politicians saying nothing so we can all nod like a bunch of bobbleheads--that's much better
Pretty clearly this is a "dose of her own medicine." Her family is responsible for hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of deaths.
^This...
projections are inherently inaccurate unless sample size is significantly LARGER than the results in question.
I think polling is hard for mostly other reasons (hard to get a representative sample - people lie), but I don't think this is right. When you do a medical study of say 5000 people, that's a pretty good sample and if you have chosen your subjects and controls well, you can make a very good projection about what happens with a much larger population.
Are we sure this isn't just Dick in a wig?
