Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
well the main difference is people in Europe were willing to help the people in Ukraine leave the warzone. Country's in the middle east wont take in Gaza refugees which is big part of why they have been stuck in that hellhole for multiple conflicts now. Places like Egypt could have slowly taken them in even before the conflict
this is garbage. countries are willing to take Gazan refugees. Israel closed the borders. and prior they couldnt leave without Israeli approval.
the reason you think that I am crazy is bc you simply dont know the facts. you actually think that people can just waltz out of Gaza and that countries other than Israel are the impediment.
ya one of the dozens of middle eastern country's did their part they only have a population of 11 million they cant support anymore . Egypt is a bunch of ****s they border Gaza and haven't let any in for the last few decades with a population of 118 million the 2 million in Gaza wouldn't even make a dent. but its all the jews fault . They wont let them in because that would be accepting defeat
The other real difference (which has been discussed several times before making this a bad faith comparison) is that two very different numbers are being compared. Gaza was never fully controlled by Israel, Israel was mostly doing a bombing campaign. This means that the Ministry of Health has access to most of the dead. They also do not require a body to record a death anymore. They are able to record the vast majority of deaths.
Ukraine does require a body, and they immediately lost land, includ
bolded is blatantly false. I even provided the interview proving it in the Israel thread. why continue to promote something so easily proven factually wrong?
Egypt has 9 million migrants and they infrastructure is already breaking. They could not take in anymore.
They especially could not risk bringing in anyone from Hamas.
this is garbage. countries are willing to take Gazan refugees. Israel closed the borders. and prior they couldnt leave without Israeli approval.
the reason you think that I am crazy is bc you simply dont know the facts. you actually think that people can just waltz out of Gaza and that countries other than Israel are the impediment.
What does Israel gain by keeping them there? they conquered their land they want them ****ing gone or docile. They would definitely let them leave to another country just not theirs. People in gaza can only walk to two places...
ya one of the dozens of middle eastern country's did their part they only have a population of 11 million they cant support anymore . Egypt is a bunch of ****s they border Gaza and haven't let any in for the last few decades with a population of 118 million the 2 million in Gaza wouldn't even make a dent. but its all the jews fault . They wont let them in because that would be accepting defeat
Im no fan of Egypt and they deserve a ton of blame. but again, when the border was open they accepted like 100k refugees.
Israel closed the border to Egypt. Egypt did not close the border.
What does Israel gain by keeping them there? they conquered their land they want them ****ing gone or docile. They would definitely let them leave to another country just not theirs. People in gaza can only walk to two places...
I dont know but I am telling you they closed the Rafah closing in May and have not let anyone leave other than a very very small amount of injured children. all of this is easy to look up.
the problem isn't actually so much that they can't leave Gaza so much as that no bordering country will allow them to come into their territory from Gaza, and international law doesn't compel them to allow that. so if both Israel and egypt don't want them wtf can you do? Maybe they should be less terrorist and not be lead by terrorist if they want out . ITs not a good look to imigrate to another country
Im no fan of Egypt and they deserve a ton of blame. but again, when the border was open they accepted like 100k refugees.
Israel closed the border to Egypt. Egypt did not close the border.
This is a bold faced lie. And the reason Egypt wants nothing to do with Palestinians is very straightforward. Palestinian's generally support Muslim Brotherhood, a Qatari funded Sunni radical Islamist group that has creating massive trouble across the region for decades.
No one talks about it because it is not convenient to the narrative; but Gaza historically crossed the border and a significant part of it was in Egypt; but Egypt completely demolished the side of the city on their side. Building by building bulldozing it to the ground till nothing left.
FWIW, I dont blame Egypt for their position. As I have been arguing for years, the Palestinian's problems are caused in large part by a very destructive political culture abetted by Western aid providing perverse incentive structures.
Why Egypt doesn't want Palestinians in Gaza to cross the border
the problem isn't actually so much that they can't leave Gaza so much as that no bordering country will allow them to come into their territory from Gaza, and international law doesn't compel them to allow that. so if both Israel and egypt don't want them wtf can you do? Maybe they should be less terrorist and not be lead by terrorist if they want out . ITs not a good look to imigrate to another country
Hard to be less terrorist when outside nations (especially the UN) are constantly supporting the terrorists, and there is intensive propaganda efforts to brainwash young people to support the terrorists.
Given the conditions and incentive structures, supporting destructive bad faith actors is what should be expected. And I dont think Israel loosening restrictions to make much difference. Before the 2nd Intifada, Palestinians in the West Bank had a lot more autonomy, but they used it to enable massive wave of suicide bombing into Israel. And we saw what Gaza did when they had democratic elections and autonomy. The entire city state was turned into a war machine acting in the interest of the IRI.
Under the current incentive structures, it should be expected that more autonomy for Palestinians would lead to poor results.
bolded is blatantly false. I even provided the interview proving it in the Israel thread. why continue to promote something so easily proven factually wrong?
Poor wording on my part. "They" refers to UN stats as we discussed in the IP thread, and what I was referring to here.
The point is that the UN record is far more complete for Gaza than it is for Ukraine, but you are constantly comparing them as if that is not the case. Really there's no need to compare the death tolls at all as I've mentioned numerous times.
how is the UN supporting terrorist? with aid intended for the people?. of course its religion keeping Muslims out of a Muslim country
Your answer is in the moderation thread.
‘Inside we are screaming’: Kupiansk trembles as Russian forces close in again
Russia’s apparent plan is to flatten then reoccupy the Ukrainian city, where the situation has become dramatically worse since the beginning of October
Nina Marchenko was in her kitchen when a bomb fell on her cottage. It blew off the roof, demolished the concrete summer house in the garden, and killed her dog, Tulik. Bits of fence were tossed into the air. “There was smoke and that was it,” she said. “A woman died in another strike nearby. I can only curse Vladimir Putin. He’s driven us from our house.”
Last week, Marchenko and her disabled husband, Misha, fled their home in Kupiansk, in the north-east of Ukraine. The Russian army seized the city in the early days of Putin’s 2022 invasion. Ukrainian soldiers took it back eight months later. For most of the last two years the frontline – across the Oskil River and a series of rustic hamlets – barely changed.
In recent weeks, however, the Russians have been advancing. Across the frontline, Ukrainian defences are crumbling at the fastest rate since 2022. In October, Russia swallowed nearly 310 miles (500km) of Ukrainian territory including more than 15 sq miles around Kupiansk. Two-thirds of these losses of territory have been in the neighbouring Donetsk region. Ukraine’s southern sector there is close to collapse.
Russian combat units are now less than two miles from Kupiansk. A little to the south, troops have already reached the Oskil River, turning Ukrainian-controlled territory on the left bank into two separate and shrinking bulges. Bridges across the river are relentlessly bombed. Moscow’s apparent plan is to flatten Kupiansk and then reoccupy it.
What a truly disgusting headline by the NYT
What's wrong with it?
Yeah I can see that if people are not educated on what the war is actually like for Russians who join, which is unfortunately a lot of people.
Yeah I can see that if people are not educated on what the war is actually like for Russians who join, which is unfortunately a lot of people.
Not only what it is like for those who join, everyone in society is a lot worse off because of the massive resources dedicated to the war. The disabled are worse off, the elders are worse off, the mothers left home are worse off, the sisters are worse off and so on.
Even if they get paid "a lot", in aggregate society is a lot worse off for them anyway.
First clip I've seen of North Koreans out of a barracks. Not at all surprised it's to teach them this.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
Ukraine Attacks North Korean Troops Deployed Near Russia Border
why are you quoting Russian conspiracy theorists. I mean ya Russian's are going to be happy and positive. a person politicians falsely claimed was a Russian asset just won the highest office. That's more Americas fault then Russia and they probably actually willed it into reality . Its likely business as usual but peace is more likely now because Russia was likely waiting to see if trump will give them better terms . The deal may be slightly worse but they will spare hundreds of thousands of lives.
I heard today its gonna take Russia 107 years to take Ukraine at its current pace lol. Russia is gonna want a deal more then us so I think we can still get a fair one
He is more than a Russian conspiracy theorist. It is worth seeing the reactions of Russians and Ukrainians to this.
Peace, in any form, is not necessarily closer now, and a long term peace is almost certainly much further away, especially if Trump begins normalizing trade and relations with Russia again.
This will in no way spare Ukrainian lives. What we've been seeing this year is Russia blowing through reserves, equipment, and ammo in an attempt to get as much as possible as quickly as possible in case Trump actually does threaten the area. So far to date, just with the threat of Trump getting elected, we've seen a major uptick in violence. Now that he is president Russia will keep sprinting, maybe even more intensely, in case Trump does attempt to enforce some kind of peace. (Ukraine was forced into a similar situation where they had to risk Kursk in case of a Trump victory as well, so more deaths there too, and from the effects of not having those troops in Donetsk.)
Putin does not want peace as he has made extremely clear. He will continue as much as possible, and if USA stops sending arms to Ukraine then he will end up killing far more. This is almost certain in my mind (barring some low probability scenarios where Trump keeps sending aid), but what I remain extremely skeptical of is Trump's ability to force the two sides to strike a peace deal. During the time between aid stopping and peace starting, things could get even more horrible than they already are.
The long term outlook is even more grim; Trump is likely to set Putin up to invade again.
Realistically if trump did end support for the war something he certainly wont do unless Ukraine does something really dumb and wont negotiate even a little, Ukraine would surrender the next day because all other country's except the Baltic ones would follow suit. so lives wouldn't be lost in that situation just ah.... a country
Ending support does not end the war. As you said, at the current pace it would take Russia 110 years to conquer all of Ukraine, removing support shortens that time by a lot, but it doesn't shorten it to the point that Ukraine immediately capitulates. Ukrainians know what happens if they give concessions to Russia and some of the things Putin wants puts Ukraine in a position where they are bound to be taken over in the future.
Here's what I think will happen:
Fighting will intensify until Trump comes into office and what he's got planned is actually known (due to weather it might actually be a reduction in intensity compared to these past few months, but compared to the same months in previous years it will be far more violent unless the weather makes it impossible).
I'm not sure about how the rollout of remaining aid will occur, but Trump has will make it impossible to vote for another package and he will not use his drawdown to help Ukraine.
He will tell Putin and Ukraine to work it out.
Putin and Ukraine will not be able to work it out because Putin will offer capitulation terms.
Putin and Trump will unleash an absurd amount of propaganda saying that all holdups over the peace deal are due to Ukraine, not Putin.
Trump will try to sell the image that Putin is dealing in earnest and if there's not enough outrage he will just let Putin do whatever he wishes. Since Putin has no desire for peace this means he continues attacking. If there is enough outrage then Trump will have to either resume aid, or figure out a way to reign Putin in and agree to a peace deal that is not Ukrainian capitulation.
