2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
I remember being up on twitter that night and understanding that democrats couldn't rig an election like that (because they aren't skilled enough) so I started with the correct priors but a ton of people were indeed truly shocked
talking about the present and near future instead, when are exit polls expected? when are we going to see the first real votes being counted?
What was even more amazing was Joe Biden, the clownshoes everyone made straight fun of for 8 years, got more votes than anyone in history despite not campaigning, like, at all.
Probably shows people thinks how bad trump was right ?
A bit like trump didn’t had to do nothing to win the 2024 primaries ?
That's the right question to ask. It's because Republicans were against early early counting of the mail-in ballots. That's what caused the crunch on election day. An even better question to ask is why they were against early tallying of the ballots? A skeptical person might believe it was because Republicans wanted to create the late blue wave of counting so that they could raise doubts about the validity of the election.
The process is drastically different in a minority of states, including key election battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In those states, election workers are, with few exceptions, prohibited from opening mail ballots before Election Day. Election officials in these states have begged their state legislatures for increased flexibility over the past few years and have been repeatedly rebuffed, including by many legislators who criticized slow counting in 2020 or backed claims that the vote count showed evidence of fraud. Only in Michigan did some cities successfully convince their legislature to allow any processing before Election Day. But even in those rare cases, the time permitted is far less than election officials asked for (just two days before Election Day), and the change came too late for many cities to implement it by the 2022 election. As a result of these legislative failures, state officials in each of these three states are warning voters that counting may go on for at least a day or two after polls close.
Source:
I remember being up on twitter that night and understanding that democrats couldn't rig an election like that (because they aren't skilled enough) so I started with the correct priors but a ton of people were indeed truly shocked
well they did manage to hide a secret pedo ring in the basement of a pizza place, so it makes sense they could hide this
man the straight line up dump looks suspicious until you learn all the detail about mail vote processing and so on.
why couldn't it be more spread out like normal vote counting?
Because the states involved were controlled by Republicans who wanted the mail-in vote counts to come after the election day (and prior earlier voting day) in person ballot counts had been published.
The Republican leaders in those states wanted people to go to sleep on Election night seeing that Trump was leading. It was that simple.
In 2024 Wisconsin still has those laws in place, so again Trump will likely be leading by bedtime. It is very possible that huge Democratic counties in WI will once again "dump" a lot of votes at one time to the public because all of the paper ballots will be counted at the same time once the processing is completed. And it is specifically because Republicans control the State House that the law wasn't changed in WI as it was changed in MI.
how much of your net worth would you part with in exchange for being able to decide the winner tomorrow
impossible for your involvement to be discovered and you cant wager on the outcome. you wave a wand and your preferred candidate takes home c.300 electoral college votes
i'll start the bidding at 0.01%
The reason there were "huge dumps of mail-in ballots" was specifically because those states involved (MI, PA, and WI) all couldn't start processing mail in ballots until election day. There was never going to be any way of knowing when the votes would be counted or how many would be made public at what time.
What was known was how many votes were still left to be counted. Each network showed the % of votes that had been accounted for and which counties the remaining votes would be from. By 3am
No. What I am saying is that many people (half?) thought Biden getting a huge majority vote-dump in swing states in the early hours of the morning following a clearly "losing" election day (which I proved happened with the graphs I posted) was suspicious, which eventually led to more than a third of the country thinking the 2020 election was illegitimate.
I don't think it was. I don't think the election was rigged. I don't even think the vote dump was suspicious (though my initial reaction was skeptical). But it doesn't matter what I think, or anyone else here. I simply don't want that pattern to repeat, because I think it will lead to wide-spread civil unrest. So I am hoping for either 1. a clear winner at 2am on election night (one person is so far ahead they can't lose) or 2. the person ahead at 2am on election night remains the winner. I fear Trump being ahead at 2am and then behind the following morning will be really bad, like apocalyptic bad.
how much of your net worth would you part with in exchange for being able to decide the winner tomorrow
impossible for your involvement to be discovered and you cant wager on the outcome. you wave a wand and your preferred candidate takes home c.300 electoral college votes
i'll start the bidding at 0.01%
Theoretical answer: 100%.
Real answer: 0% because she's going to win anyway.
Well, i'm guessing here but this is how I think it played out.
Fraudulent Biden votes that were set aside to be used if needed were dumped in the dead of night, in just the right amounts to secure a win. How else do you explain the large numbers of Biden votes all dropping at the same time? It's a statistical impossibility.
Well, i'm guessing here but this is how I think it played out.
Fraudulent Biden votes that were set aside to be used if needed were dumped in the dead of night, in just the right amounts to secure a win. How else do you explain the large numbers of Biden votes all dropping at the same time? It's a statistical impossibility.
We don' have to theorize how or why it happened. It's been well documented.
Simple question .
You believe people in the 1700-1800s without much medications from pharma corporations were better and suffering less ?
Or is that just another countless try to find an enemy for republicans to explains their sadness in this world ?
I wonder why those pharma are so efficient in the US to screw people but not that much in other countries like Canada ?
Ah yes freedom !! Let’s keep stupidly deregulated them and if it goes bad just ban them ?
Lol….true efficient freedom in action …
Well, i'm guessing here but this is how I think it played out.
Fraudulent Biden votes that were set aside to be used if needed were dumped in the dead of night, in just the right amounts to secure a win. How else do you explain the large numbers of Biden votes all dropping at the same time? It's a statistical impossibility.
Well it’s a good thing guessing is not legally proofs.
Imagine how many years trump would be condemn for other stuff …..
With beliefs and guessing u can go a long way to think about what’s real or not .
Simple question .
You believe people in the 1700-1800s without much medications from pharma corporations were better and suffering less ?
Or is that just another countless try to find an enemy for republicans to explains their sadness in this world ?
I wonder why those pharma are so efficient in the US to screw people but not that much in other countries like Canada ?
Ah yes freedom !! Let’s keep stupidly deregulated them and if it goes bad just ban them ?
Lol….true efficient freedom in a
You think it's a bad idea to ban drug commercials from television?
What the absolute **** has happened to the left? Next you'll be arguing about the health benefits of processed beef because Burger King wraps their whoppers in pride flags.
No. What I am saying is that many people (half?) thought Biden getting a huge majority vote-dump in swing states in the early hours of the morning following a clearly "losing" election day (which I proved happened with the graphs I posted) was suspicious, which eventually led to more than a third of the country thinking the 2020 election was illegitimate.
I don't think that is what led 70% of Republicans to believe the election was stolen. Trump claimed it repeatedly (and not specifically because of the mail-in vote dumps) and a lot of people choose to believe what Trump says even though fact checking on him shows that he is not telling the truth a very large % of the time.
All of Trump's lawyers who argued in the 60+ election fraud trials in the swing states publicly and repeatedly stated that the election was stolen and that they had proof. Incredibly they never (not once) submitted any evidence of election fraud or theft even when asked to do so by the trial judges (in over 50% of the cases). Some of the proof was allegedly that voting machines had been tampered with by Venezuela. Some implied that voting machines had been rigged and Fox News lost a huge amount of money when that case came to trial.
The My Pillow guy claimed he had evidence of election theft and he had to pay $5,000,000 to somebody who proved him wrong. The My Pillow guy never produced any evidence of it either.
In fact there were a number of incidents that were cited early on and were proved to lack merit. The Head of Homeland Security who had been hired by Trump publicly stated that there was no evidence of election fraud or theft. Bill Barr who basically ended the Russia Investigation with a summary that wasn't close to what Mueller had written came out and told the public that there had been no election fraud after he had the Justice Department investigate it at Trump's request.
I don't think it was. I don't think the election was rigged. I don't even think the vote dump was suspicious (though my initial reaction was skeptical). But it doesn't matter what I think, or anyone else here. I simply don't want that pattern to repeat, because I think it will lead to wide-spread civil unrest. So I am hoping for either 1. a clear winner at 2am on election night (one person is so far ahead they can't lose) or 2. the person ahead at 2am on election night remains the winner.
The pattern is very likely to repeat on Election night again. Specifically because PA and WI won't be processing ballots before election day and those two states could be very very close.
Now there will be many fewer mail in votes in PA and WI because Covid is now basically the Flu. But it is still possible if the election in either or both states is not decided early (which could easily happen) then it will come down to mail in ballots. And if Trump is leading prior to the mail in ballots being counted then once again we will see the graphs you have posted. The timeline won't matter. What will matter is that Trump was ahead and then he lost. Hopefully.
What's the case for how banning pharmaceutical ads wouldn't be a first amendment violation? And why we shouldn't also ban unlimited campaign donations that are supposedly protected under the same amendment per the Citizens United ruling?
Who cares what she says at all? The fact is she walked back her concession and quickly jumped all over "I lost because of Russia"
The people who voted for her? You really can't figure out that not conceding an election right after a heated election can cause strife? You really expected riots over things she said 3 years later?
While alternative histories can be fun, I don't know what would've happened if Trump conceded. There have been delayed or sometimes non-concessions before that did not turn into political violence.
It's cute that you're comparing 2020 with other elections. And it's amusing that you're pretending that Trump didn't stoke flames after he lost and think his cult would have rioted anyway had he just conceded gracefully.
how much of your net worth would you part with in exchange for being able to decide the winner tomorrow
impossible for your involvement to be discovered and you cant wager on the outcome. you wave a wand and your preferred candidate takes home c.300 electoral college votes
i'll start the bidding at 0.01%
can I decide congress as well, with any result? I can decide and have tomorrow to trad
If I can I think 10% because I think I can trade (and have family and friends trade on it as well) and easily make more than that (accounting for the fact I alone pay, family and friend can trade as well eithout paying 10% as well).
Question is what would the trades be? imagine I can give republicans a trifecta and a supermajority in the Senate (like 63-64 so "moderates" don't matter), that would be short USD index 10:1 leverage right?
I can sell a ton of calls on TLT as well.
other ideas? what would be the most clear cut trade able election outcome of you knew in advance?
Well, i'm guessing here but this is how I think it played out.
Fraudulent Biden votes that were set aside to be used if needed were dumped in the dead of night, in just the right amounts to secure a win. How else do you explain the large numbers of Biden votes all dropping at the same time? It's a statistical impossibility.
So, it's not, right? It's totally feasible that mail-in ballots were added later a huge bunch at a time instead of counting them alongside the day-of votes. Especially when coupled with this
You think it's a bad idea to ban drug commercials from television?
What the absolute **** has happened to the left? Next you'll be arguing about the health benefits of processed beef because Burger King wraps their whoppers in pride flags.
I think it's a bad idea to allow the government to regulate us in general (all topics) unless it's absolutely indispensable for society survival.
my threshold is, if any country which we can agree is/was decent, doesn't have rule x, rule x should be unconstitutional.
the only rules that should be allowed to be considered are those that not a single decent country can do without
Two questions.
When is the next time a republican candidate will win the popular vote?
When is the next time, even with more people voting, a REPUBLICAN candidate gets more than 70 million votes? let alone 74 million ? cant use trumpo as your answer
Republicans are always up against it due to city and urban county votes this is just obvious. what is also obvious is my original point that it was quite wild that a republican candidate got that many votes still
It’s not wild at all and nothing special happened in 2020 .
If u still have this year a record voting participation the numbers will be similar shrug .
About two-thirds (66%) of the voting-eligible population turned out for the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate for any national election since 1900.
Ps: when republicans will win the popular vote ?
Probably when they will stop trusting crazy nominees on the far right segment and focus better on a truer representation of the US voters ?
Which I believe are more trusty about science , real media’s, facts and believe earth is flat .
I don't think that is what led 70% of Republicans to believe the election was stolen. Trump claimed it repeatedly (and not specifically because of the mail-in vote dumps) and a lot of people choose to believe what Trump says even though fact checking on him shows that he is not telling the truth a very large % of the time.
Had Biden been ahead the entire time, I think it would have played out much differently. Half the country going to bed confident of a Trump win waking up to Biden being ahead in every swing state was the catalyst for future election fraud claims. Now there may have been fraud claims regardless, but the swing from R to D at 5am was the real shocker. No one expected it (well maybe Gorgonian did).-
All of Trump's lawyers who argued in the 60+ election fraud trials in the swing states publicly and repeatedly stated that the election was stolen and that they had proof. Incredibly they never (not once) submitted any evidence of election fraud or theft even when asked to do so by the trial judges (in over 50% of the cases). Some of the proof was allegedly that voting machines had been tampered with by Venezuela. Some implied that voting machines had been rigged and Fox News lost a huge amount of money when that case came to trial.
The My Pillow guy claimed he had evidence of election theft and he had to pay $5,000,000 to somebody who proved him wrong. The My Pillow guy never produced any evidence of it either.
I agree, no evidence.
The pattern is very likely to repeat on Election night again. Specifically because PA and WI won't be processing ballots before election day and those two states could be very very close.
Now there will be many fewer mail in votes in PA and WI because Covid is now basically the Flu.
Covid was always basically the flu.
But it is still possible if the election in either or both states is not decided early (which could easily happen) then it will come down to mail in ballots. And if Trump is leading prior to the mail in ballots being counted then once again we will see the graphs you have posted. The timeline won't matter. What will matter is that Trump was ahead and then he lost. Hopefully.
I mean obviously you're saying you hope Trump loses here, but we better hope the pattern does not repeat, because it will not be good.
The people who voted for her? You really can't figure out that not conceding an election right after a heated election can cause strife? You really expected riots over things she said 3 years later?
I mean it can, lead to strife, but it's not a causal link because there have been other elections where the candidate didn't concede or conceded quite late (2000 springs to mind) that did not lead to "strife."
It's cute that you're comparing 2020 with other elections. And it's amusing that you're pretending that Trump didn't stoke flames after he lost and think his cult would have rioted anyway had he just conceded gracefully.
I don't know, and neither do you.
You think it's a bad idea to ban drug commercials from television?
What the absolute **** has happened to the left? Next you'll be arguing about the health benefits of processed beef because Burger King wraps their whoppers in pride flags.
No idea what you are talking about .
What is rfk junior messages ?
Vaccines are bad , pharma are bad and conspiracists, etc.
What you speak up there still exist in other countries and people still don’t screw like in the US .
The right hates regulations and then complains when they gets screwed by lack of regulations lol ??
I think it's a bad idea to allow the government to regulate us in general (all topics) unless it's absolutely indispensable for society survival.
my threshold is, if any country which we can agree is/was decent, doesn't have rule x, rule x should be unconstitutional.
the only rules that should be allowed to be considered are those that not a single decent country can do without
See what I mean ?
My main point is pharma helps people more then what people thinks it seem on the far right of the spectrum and crazies like rfk.
But they are so avid to find ennemies to explain their discontent ……
