T9s 3bet Pot vs 25/21

Yeah thanks, agree. I push River but seems ev- because he have more strong K than me. If i bet flop 1/2 pot for example how we continúe here?

I would go 1/3-1/2 or so and give up this river

Your opening statement contradicts itself. Betting this small folds out nothing, so it's a value bet? Now we have no Kx advantage (we also arguably aren't betting enough Kx ourselves).

OTR we want him to have TT/99

Mmm, no, I mean, I bet small flop to let the entire range go to the turn, and OTT (maybe not this one) bet 1/2 to throw away all that overcards.

OTR as played maybe check is best to push in terms of ev, because he have more Kx than me, and if he have 99-TT-JJ I think that Major of time he bet flop

I think you get heroed a lot here.

Turn is a donk spot so don’t bet it. Don’t really like flop either as he is probably checking more than a solver.

I’d fold preflop like Haizemberg said vs this guy.

I think the "bet small here to make him call range and bluff that weak range later" is an old concept that is pretty bad in practice, in isolation. It sounds logical: inflate the pot to then take it away later vs a weak range. But poker doesn't quite work like that.

If you have no fold equity on the flop (which you are making sure of you don't have), you are basically starting to build up a bank of fold equity required on later streets to make that flop decision profitable. Every additional street you bet with the intention to get called, you are making the required fold equity bigger for the street where you want villain to fold. That required fold equity will be bigger than you think on later streets, to make the flop decision profitable.

Here is an example with 100% pot bets on every street with 0% fold equity OTF and OTT:

You will need a whopping 72% fold equity on the river to make the decision from flop +EV. (compared to 50% which is only the fold equity to make river +EV)

In your specific hand you bet 20% OTF (intention: 0% fold equity) and 55% OTT. Simplified you'd need ~45% turn fold equity to make the flop decision +EV. (compared to 35% which is the fold equity to make turn +EV)

Not saying your HH is horrible, just pointing out that the mindset of trying to get calls so you can bluff later is flawed. There are some special cases when you can do that exploitatively, but mostly it's too optimistic and people don't realize how difficult it is to make profitable.

Also shoutout tombos21 for making the calculator found here:

https://blog.gtowizard.com/the-math-of-multistreet-bluffs/

GTO Wizard

The Math of Multi-Street Bluffs

Villain is slightly nitty with a lowish 3bpf. I like your play pf and on the flop. When he checks flop with such a lowish 3b% he has a lot of AK/AQ. So I'm probably shutting down on the K turn even though it's usually a nice scare card. I mean what are we repping here on turn? I mean will he believe you have Kx here?

Also on the turn we have less equity with our gutshot and overs then on the flop obviously. So that's another incentive to shut it down.

As played he has AK that didnt cr turn, 55 sometimes or AQ being stubborn. He also very rarely has 89s I guess. I think you rarely get a fold and should give up.

Theres also some chance he flopped a set and is gonna blast you on that river when you bet. But I think most nits would be scared to slowplay a low card set and he would have cr flop. The fact that its 3 handed would change this if he was good.

In summary, preflop and flop were good then give up.