$1/$3 AK flop two pair
Utg is a maniac playing any Qx, blasting off with 72, opening large, etc
Main villain in the hand is SB, seems like a rec and has played mostly tight passive preflop
OTTH:
$700 effective
Utg to $15, hero 3bets to $45
, Villain in SB flats and Utg flats
Flop ($130) 7sAcKh
Utg check, hero cbets $45, V calls and Utg folds
Turn ($220) 2h
Hero bets $175, v tanks for a while before making the call
River ($570) Qc
V checks and has about $450 remaining. We cover.
Hero?
Is this a clear bet? I was trying to think of which hands we were still getting value from other than AQ.
Player type is not going to make a hero call, idk if he's ever calling a bet with AJ/AT. I don't think he gets here with KQ. JhTh gets there but might lead river. QhJh is folding any river bet.
I'm not seeing a lot of value in jamming. Do we go for a smaller sizing and hope for a crying call from weak Ax?
All input welcome, including flop and turn sizing.
Cheers
11 Replies
Edit: I thought the maniac was the main villain, so disregard about checking it back. I'm not afraid of b'dway from a tight guy who called a 3bet pre from the blinds so I would b/c around 250.
I'm cool with preflop.
SPR is 5 on the flop. So if someone managed to outflop us, they're getting our stack, imo. Flop is quite drawless so if UTG might start blasting against weakness 3way then I wouldn't despise a tricky checkback. Otherwise any smallish bet will still easily get stacks in by the river.
I'm fine with out turn sizing which sets up an all-in for the river.
AQ is probably his most likely hand (other than tarping but low combo AA/KK). So I'd jam. Although, in all honesty, I can't recall the last time (if ever) where I've gotten $700 in in a 1/3 NL game (at a lot of 1/3 NL tables this literally never happens). So if it is one of those tables / nit on nit violence / etc. I think there is good reason to be trepidatious.
GcluelesstrepidatiousnoobG
$250 on the river sounds about right. obv call it off if you get shoved on.
most of his range is AJ or ATs with some AQ. i dont think you get paid by Ax if you bet more than $250.
The thing about this spot is Villain just doesn’t really have hands that we are losing to. JThh is one combo which can be discounted (could fold pre, could lead river). KK and AA are one combo each which can be discounted (could 4bet pre). 77 is 3 combos which can be discounted (could fold pre, could raise flop or turn).
So the fact that Villain may only call with 1 hand worse than ours (AQ) isn’t really a big deal. There are 6 combos of AQ available, including 2 combos of AQs. There are plenty of other reasonable AX combos that Villain can have that might call. There are only a maximum of 6 combos total that we are losing to.
I understand why other posters are advocating for betting $250 and calling off. I think the main thing is you have to bet, and you also shouldn’t bet/fold.
Agree w/ bet/call $200 - $250. I don't want to face a raise (hard to believe he's raising w/ worse), but never folding.
It's a cold call from the SB. I would conjecture that he has all combos of AQ, but possibly only AJs and ATs. In any event the final board favours you so much that it's hard to get called by any mediocre hand and even a weak tight cold calling fish can see that. I'd jam, but certainly don't bet less than 300.
(A hand which nobody has mentioned but I wouldn't rule out is QQ, btw)
3bet bigger against the maniac.
I checked it back like a giant nit. Villain showed AhJh.
I knew it was a hand I needed to bet, especially if we have bluffs in our range. I was initially thinking it had to be all in. I finally considered going smaller and then wasn't sure if I could call if he jammed bc he's never bluffing there when he jams and I had already tanked for a while and just annoyingly checked it back.
Looking back, even if his only worse calling hand is AQ it's probably still worth betting as someone mentioned its 6 combos. The more I think about it the smaller bet sizing might actually get some crying calls with AJs/ATs and even A7s is possibly in his range.
Anyway I knew checking back was a mistake and just wanted to talk through the hand a bit so thanks for all the input.
Think I just jam. Looks like V has an ace he can't let go.
I can't see any hand that beats you getting to the river other than 77 that is just planning on c-c every street. JT all combos other than JhTh has to fold the turn and will probably lead river. I think a sizing that targets AQ/AJ something like $200. I don't see anybody calling a shove with AJ and possibly not even AQ.
It's a cold call from the SB. I would conjecture that he has all combos of AQ, but possibly only AJs and ATs. In any event the final board favours you so much that it's hard to get called by any mediocre hand and even a weak tight cold calling fish can see that. I'd jam, but certainly don't bet less than 300.
(A hand which nobody has mentioned but I wouldn't rule out is QQ, btw)
3bet bigger against the maniac.
It takes a special kind of player to continue calling with QQ after a double barrel with a 2/3rd sizing on turn from a 3-bet hand and AK on the board. I think the only hand that has us beat is JThh and I cant see him checking river when our likely holding is 2p or better. This is all about sizing down to get a crying call from AT/AJ/AQ/A7.
As mentioned earlier, 3bet bigger vs UTG.
Can go bigger otf in practice since UTG has a relatively inelastic continuing range.
River:
*$450 to win $1,020 means we need 2.25 value combos for every bluff
*AA-KK, AK = 15 value combos (need ~7 bluff combos)
*Seems hard to find that many bluff combos: QJs (3), A5s (3) don't seem that reasonable.
If villain is really that tight they won't have much AJs-ATs preflop, but they also have 6 combos of AQ and not sure if they have 6 combos that beat us.
Jamming seems fine, but imo it's not like automatic especially if SB is more nitty than fishy.
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