Can I call this potsize river bet with two pair?

No reads, besides lively?

I'm calling, blah blah too high in our range, etc. Expecting to lose. But only needing one time in three.

Why didn't you bet the turn, after x-r flop? Trying to rep a set or the 2p you have versus something else and concerned about getting raised off the 4 outer? Either V has a J or they don’t.

It's a 120 bigs, turn x-back suggests they weren't calling flop for the straight, but rather for the flush or something else, and 2P with 1st and 3rd isn't too bad. But I'm a bit of an aggrotard calling station.

Any reads on button? Is he the type of guy that's always squeezing TT, 99, AK? Flatting K3s? No idea what he's doing here betting 10% pot on the flop.

I think after checking twice I would call here. If he's checking back a set on the turn (or finding this bizarre line with Jx of clubs) then well-played.

No major reads as I'd only been in the game a few orbits. However I've played against villain before in cash games at the WSOP in Vegas and I knew he was pretty solid and balanced, and probably plays for profit.

I also thought I was too high in my range to fold, and that his river bet simply didn't make sense. I thought my hand was too thin to go for value on the turn and that it was good for his range as played from the flop.

I'm also a bit of a station but in this specific hand felt that he was bluff heavy with the river bet anyway, especially given the large sizing.

He's a good player who I've played against once or twice before. I think he's definitely squeezing the hands you mentioned, and not flatting K3s.

Agreed his tiny flop bet was mighty strange.

Seconded the above comment.

Had he had a J I think he wouldn't check on the turn to protect his straight from a flush, unless he had a JcXc.

I lean towards a call.

Yep, I think so too on both counts.

Not having clubs or even diamonds helps us

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Definitely. Reveal below:

nh wp by button. obv $10 is tiny but in his shoes no way id bet big. i want people drawing near dead to call. he has most middling hands on the board locked up (he blocks pair+gutshot hands) so betting big just iso's him vs the nuts

one can even argue that he should check behind here tbh and id buy it.

You do all of these posts about theory and what a solver would do ... and then you are over over calling a 5x EP raise as the only person OOP to the raiser.

You also say that BTN is good.

Flop sizing seems bad, but given the bad spot you are in you don't have a lot of great choices.
Going to $130 and being 3bet by UTG sucks a lot (or maybe it's great because you just lol fold?), and it's not much better vs. BTN. And everyone folds worse a lot.
Going $30 gets ugly on a lot of runouts if UTG calls, but that's probably mostly due to preflop.
Solvers will probably only raise KT here some of the time HU, but here you are 4 ways and have the 5th nuts on a dynamic board OOP.
Just checked and Solver BTN vs. BB, if BTN bets 33% pot then BB only raises half pot with KT ~35%; if BTN bets 50% pot BB raises half pot like 20%.

River seems weak sauce to just x/x, x/f but V has a hand that doesn't need to bluff a lot and KQ/KJ/AJ/JT/J9 are all winning now and I doubt you are that high in your range by the river (like this hand has to be near the bottom of the hands with showdown value that raise flop and get to this turn/river).
Also solver as BTN pretty much calls/folds flop and checks back turn with a J a _lot_, when the flop started HU.
Also not obvious that BTN can't just call TT pre. a lot in this spot.
Feels like we are mostly calling river because our hand was pretty good on the flop.

FWIW (again, starting HU) Solver almost pure leads KT as BB when it gets x/r flop and turn goes x/x. For the sliver of KT that checks it pure calls 20% and 50% pot, 50/50 split on 74% pot.

Vs a random fish I would call with every hand because they’re not going to be balanced with their turn checks, nor good enough to bomb with top 2 or a set.

So I think they will be over bluffing by a lot.

Against a good player this is a tough spot and we need some reads or at least a profile. We are at bottom of range, we don’t have to defend this hand.

Sure those are fair points. I'm definitely going to bet, but not so big it scares off too many hands - probably something like 40-50% pot.

I don't think a call with any suited broadway can be considered bad here? Yes it's a 5x open but I'm getting a great price and I have a good hand. I think folding would be a mistake, and 3betting vs UTG would definitely be too loose.

I'd argue that $130 is too large for the check-raise. Check-calling is probably okay too, but the BTN's bet just reeked of weakness, and nobody else had shown any interest in the pot, so I decided to go after it. Of course the obvious danger on such a board is that I'm out of position and a bad turn can come (as happened) but I was prepared to change gears if that occurred.

UTG was a straightforward player who I expected simply to cbet with overpairs+, so I was not overly concerned with getting 3bet.

Interesting, thanks for checking.

Yes I agree with most of this.

Interesting, thanks again.

Yes, I think calling KTs is bad here. And if you think it might be good, it's almost certainly better to 3bet.

Great price for what?
Good hands are relative.

pf is standard. it might seem you have bad position but you actually have excellent relative position because you will likely check the flop with 100% of your range and the PFR is to your direct left. so on the flop you are giving away no information while waiting to see how the rest of the table reacts to the PFR's action. also its not like you have something like 87s where you cannot call most flops, as your high cards enable you to continue on many boards such as Txx, Kxx, QJx, FD, etc.

Sure, agreed.

fold pre, x/r flop way larger, calling river once turn checks through..BTN has some traps though

I'm surprised to hear a second person say this should be a fold preflop. What's your reasoning for this?

What do others on the forum think? Fold/call/3bet?

What is the reasoning for check-raising flop way larger?

Agreed it should be a call once the turn has checked through and hero has checked the river. Sure, BTN may have some traps - but at least my gut feeling is that a potsize bet on the river after the previous action in the hand is a bluff a significant portion of the time (in other words, often enough that I can call with all bluff catchers).

I don't think there is good equity realization, due to the domination problems 4 ways for a large size.
IMO this is the worst suited broadway to be calling in this spot, because you are dominated by almost everything and rarely flop good enough draws.

It'll be very difficult to put enough money in ahead when you flop top pair to make up for the times you don't have much and have to check/fold, unless someone is very bad at calling or bluffing.

You only flop a flush draw ~11% of the time, and it's almost always to the 2nd nuts. QJ is also often nice to see on the flop, but that's it for good straight draws (SC=3 two card boards, S1G=2 two card boards, S2G=1 two card board). The straight problem extends to combo. draws, also domination problems again like QJT or JT9.
Then you have to either bluff people off their equity when you have a good draw, or hit.

It's like old timer PLO advice, your hand looks pretty but think of the flops you want to see and write them down. Bonus points for thinking about how the money goes in when you are ahead.

IIRC suited high cards have amongst the best equity realization in the game. But I take your point about domination issues etc and as indicated I would of course be treading carefully postflop.

Sure, I get it. But of course Txx flops are pretty good for me, and boards with two spades. Where I would have to be most careful is K high board of course, in which case I'm on the hook for at least one bet - but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

Anyone out there with a GTO Wizard subscription who can comment on this EV of this call preflop?

Based on description I probably lean towards call, maybe block bet 1/3 pot /fold. I would take note of how thin he went on the river here and pay attention to his sizings and tendencies. People may seem balanced, but people tend not to be. Good regs who cultivate that image tend to have bluffs in spots where they think they will get a lot of folds, but still tend to be imbalanced with their value heavy lines and tend to split sizes with value and bluffs.

Preflop actually yes this is a fold in theory. But the cold callers' ranges are going to be very different from a solver. Still, I would fold pre unless there is at least one bad rec who will make huge mistakes against us postflop. There is a culture in live poker where people open huge and then people call with ranges that probably are only calls vs small sizing. That sort of meta game makes the most premium hands more profitable, but most of the marginal hands people cold call with are losing. The max exploit is to way tighten up. Vs people that will fold to 3bet 3betting with a polar range is still profitable, and to people who don't fold you want to 3bet a tight linear range.

Agreed. It's perplexing that he would choose this size on the river with this hand. A polarized sizing for a middling-strong hand.

Sure. I'm confident enough in my postflop play that I can navigate this hand multiway, and I have a hard time believing that the preflop call is minus EV vs weak players and wide ranges (with the exception of UTG). In general I absolutely agree that tightening up is the best max exploit in these games, but at least imo this hand is too strong to fold. Where do you draw the line? Are you calling with KJs? KQs?

sorry to butt in i think KQs and ATs+ should be 3b pre. thats why its a linear range.