2/5 river checkraise from recreational
2/5, weak passive table, hero has been running it over, but main villain in this hand just sat down an orbit or two ago. He's middle aged and been pretty active, assumed rec. He saw hero iso raise Q7o from the button and get two streets of value, as well as a few hands where hero raised and won with a c-bet or barrell
around 800 eff.
MP limps, hero on button raises K8cc to 25, villain in SB calls, BB calls.
Flop (100): 6s 6h 7c
checks around
Turn (100): 9s
checks to hero, bets 50, sb calls, others fold
River (200): Kh
V checks, hero bets 70, V thinks a bit and raises to 230, hero... ?
Wishing I'd just checked it back, but I'm feeling inclined to bluff catch. Boats are possible, but not that many recs are checking trips on the flop and then x/calling them on the turn. Also, I guess when rec's x/raise the river I'm inclined to either
A. assume they have the nuts, or
B. account for some spazziness, depending on player type
I would cbet 1/3ps on flop.
As played on River I probably close my eyes and call
reasons are:
*even for a rec your line looks very weak
*he too will not often double check and then just call a bet with trips+
*all draws he could have are busted
*You're getting odds from 3:1
When you say active, does that mean he's limping and calling a lot of pots pf or is he raising? If he's raising, I'd do a crying call. All you have is a pair of kings, with no kicker. Normally, a random is not raising the river with anything that can't beat TPNK. If that is the case, easy fold.
Fold
This is a pretty clear cbet flop with BTN range even multiway your hand has little equity but blocking the 8x calls and can fold out Ax air balls. I like cbet flop and give up if you don't pick up turn equity.
Cbet flop
Check river
As played, fold
It’s an overbluffed spot online vs fish.
Not sure about live but I’d call.
Interested in results.
So the more important thing is that players simply dont check raise river enough. Everyone who goes for thin value and gets check raised regrets betting, but thats just the cost of doing business, and it happens SO rarely that this shouldnt change your strategy, it was a solid river thin value bet, it wont gain you fat EV but in the long term itll win you money.
The issue js when you DO get check raised irs hard to know where youre at because the population does it so rarely. Bad players dont bluff raise, and whej they do check their air otr theyve already turned their brain off and resigned themselves to losing, but bad players also dont slowplay the river.
My personal read is that this spot is not overbluffed at live poker, but online mda says otherwise, so i may be wrong, because i really havent seen a lot of it. The only time i remember being check raised in my last ~60 hours of poker, he went called a 3 bet, went check call/check call/check jam with flopped top set JJ vs my KK, so theres my one whole datapoint ive accumulated in the past 60 hours
I think checking betting the flop are both viable. 3 to a straight and 3 to a flush means there are a lot of turns you can barrel, but you also will probably have to fold if you get raised, meaning if you do turn equity, you won't get to see it. Probably a little more inclined to bet K high than A high on the flop since we have less showdown.
Turn seems reasonable.
River I don't like betting less than half pot in position. I would go 120 planning to fold if raised to. And I would fold to the raise as played. Random players are generally not check raising river as a bluff, and it's basically impossible for him to be value owning himself. A lot of players will trap more than they should.
Generally, yes we should assume a K is good on the river when checked to, but once we get raised on the river, I think we should say, I guess he did check something strong on the turn. He could also have a better K with KsXs taking the small river size for weakness.
In theory you never bet 30% on the river in position when you can just check back and showdown your hand. Theory always goes at least B50 because the risk/reward is too high for betting so small when it re-opens the action.
Versus fish we don't care about theory but it's important to understand what we are deviating from.
The difference between live fish and online fish is interesting and I have punted a bunch playing live in spots where online fish overbluff but live fish never do. The psychological element of getting caught in person vs online deters fish from bluffing as much and it's easier to click a button than move chips.
Also I think the board type is the most important data point over the line type. Static boards (think paired boards/Ace high boards/montone boards) where strong hands don't change on most runouts are bluffed less than other board types.
If you get into the mind of a fish every pair is 2 pair to him. And he won't try to bluff you off 2 pair.
So yeah online it's a call but live it's fold after thinking about it some more and reading other people's posts who know live poker better than me.
So yeah online it's a call but live it's fold after thinking about it some more and reading other people's posts who know live poker better than me.
and also after seeing the results.
The live players biggest weakness is calling too much. The king hits hero's range and he still c/r'd (he would probably lead out with any non ace or king river).
I would need some very credible reads such as he loves to bluff rivers on paired boards to even consider a hero call.
I could see a hand like KXss being check-raise bluffed here. But I'm very dubious of any claims that rivers are getting overbluffed as a check-raise tbh, fish or no fish
My basic strat would be to c-bet this flop for around 1/3 pot.
As played on flop, I guess I'd make a delayed c-bet on the turn, maybe around 1/2 pot, so no real issue with how the turn was played, once the flop gets checked back.
On the river, I dunno. On the one hand, I like to bet thin for value. On the other, it's hard to see V calling with too many worse hands, when they always seem to put us on AK.
The thing that makes the river decision hard is that we checked back the flop, and then bet the turn when the BD draws appear. So, conceivably, we have some AXss or 87 in our range that bricked out and needs to rep that K, and we might get looked up by some 9x.
If we're going to bet, I don't hate the 1/3 pot sizing, though I'd probably bet a little bigger, like 40% pot, but that's splitting hairs.
Once we get check-raised, I think I'm turbo-mucking, unless I have a very reliable read or live tell that suggests V is FOS.
Bear in mind some of this relies on our table image. If V has seen us opening wide and barreling off, both with thin value and with bluffs, some V's are capable of screwing up the courage to take a stand, and attempt some wild-a$$ bluff.
This happens to me sometimes, and it's pretty comical when I bet small, get raised, then another opponent re-raises, I fold, and the original raiser folds. "What did you have that was strong enough to raise over my bet, but not strong enough to call his re-raise?" Answer: "Nothing. I just thought you were FOS (again)."
In theory you never bet 30% on the river in position when you can just check back and showdown your hand. Theory always goes at least B50 because the risk/reward is too high for betting so small when it re-opens the action.
You mean in general, right, not just in this spot?
That's not at all true, 1/3 pot river bets IP when checked to happen pretty frequently in solver world, mostly in lines where at least one street was checked through.
Without reading about the better options of play on the previous streets and digging through all the comments, I think the river is clear fold.
Two reasons:
1. River check raise is thick value more often than not , especially V takes the check-call, check-call, check-raise line.
2. Yes your line and bet size looks kinda weak, but that does not mean a passive villain will suddenly turn into an aggressive player to CR and get you off a hand that you barrel 3 streets for. If V is aggressive enough to CR on the river as a bluff, he would have done it on the previous streets.
I didnt spend much time and found a bet of 35% on gto at 2% frequency.
Btn raise bb 3 bet btn call
Flop Q73r, 33%, call
Turn 2o, x x
River J x, and 35% is used.
I assume there are spots where its used more frequently but maybe i just happened into its most commonly used spot on the 2nd board i tried.
Here's one I found on the first try, SRP BTN v BB 150bb deep, 20% 1/3 26% 2/3 with some overbet ; second image gives you an idea of the ranges
Thank you.
I don’t think I’m technically right as you clearly disproved my statement but I think the spirit still holds true.
You are looking at a polarized board with a hand class that will never get 3 streets of value. Run a non polarized board (no Ace high no monotone no obvious draws complete) and see if they go B30 OTR.
well, here is GTO doing it on the exact board of the thread youre posting in.
2/5, weak passive table, hero has been running it over, but main villain in this hand just sat down an orbit or two ago. He's middle aged and been pretty active, assumed rec. He saw hero iso raise Q7o from the button and get two streets of value, as well as a few hands where hero raised and won with a c-bet or barrell
around 800 eff.
MP limps, hero on button raises K8cc to 25, villain in SB calls, BB calls.
Flop (100): 6s 6h 7c
checks around
Turn (100): 9s
checks to hero, bets 50, sb calls, others f
Read your description in first paragraph and think about what it means in terms of how V sees you.
Does it? There are 30 combos of AA-TT. How many does SB have? How many do you have? If he's sat there with 87 do you think he's fistpumping? Also we have three to a straight, three to a flush and two overcards so there are a boatload of good turn barrel cards. Not to mention we currently have King-high so a cbet will get immediate folds from loads of hands we are losing to.
