Deep in MTT with decent sized stack facing shove from SB

Hmm. I think it's close in the sense that we don't really want to take marginal gambles for a lot of chips. On the other hand, this isn't really enough of your stack to hurt you and could eliminate a player. I think between the odds, the size of the shove, and the relatively small amount of damage it would do to you (you still have 30BB if you lose), I'd lean call. If it was a bigger shove or represented a significant portion of my stack, though, I'd probably just fold.

Yeah exactly my thought process that there wasn't much EV in calling and it could hurt my stack. If it was a bounty tournament I'd probably snap call.

I constructed a scenario in HRC where your table was the only on left in the tournament and on the stone cold bubble, with a prize structure of 40%-24%-16%-12%-8%

As I suspected SB should shove farly wide here, though not A2C. He has a range of 65% hands:

22+, Ax, Kx, Q2s, Q4o, J2s, J8o, T3s, T8o, 93s, 97o, 82s, 87o, 74s, 86o, 63s, 52s, 32s

You on the other hand should call farly wide: 34%

Ax, K4s, K7o, Q7s, Q9o, J8s, JTo, T9s

Even if we think he's a bit tighter here, shoving only around 50% of his hands all Ax-hands are still calls. although you'll be a slight dog against such a range.

And I would guess a typical player in a $150 tournament would be well aware he should push most of his hands.

I struggle myself with this type of spots, since I'm not a gambler by nature, so my gut feeling says I should not make marginal calls. But I also believe that taking this exakt type of spots will contribute to you reaching more top 3-places. If you loose you still have a middle sized stack. But if you win you will be one of the bigger stacks in the tournament and in even better shape to put pressure on the middle sized stacks.

Other than a lower pair with a gutter, what hands do you want to see villain turn over if you call? How many of those hands open shove 2x the pot?

I would call unless I had a read SB was pushing way too tight. You are getting pot odds and are a little ahead of most hands he should be pushing. It doesn't effect your stack that much. If you are folding an ace, he should shove ATC.

The hand didn't go to a flop.

Villain has 9BB. I don't think there are any standard opens; he's mostly shoving if he's playing at all, maybe with a few limp/traps and limp/folds to balance.

GTO says it's a clear call. I struggle with these spots, because in practice, it seems a lot of player turn up a better A. I don't see random junk as often as I would like.

the 28% VPIP on the hud makes me think we can never fold Ax to a 9bb shove here, esp when calling and losing doesnt effect our chip position too much. We would still be 2nd at the table and most likely around 2nd-5th overall.

if the next pay bump isnt until 9th, then short stacks have a good incentive go after chips vs surviving and Id expect this shove to be at least appropriately wide.

In Chip EV calling with A2o makes us 2bb and calling with AA makes us 8bb. A solid rule of thumb for ICM push/fold spots is that you want your EV of a call to be ~10% of the EV of calling with AA. In this spot, that would be any pair, any ace, any suited K, K7o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J9s+, JTo+, and T9s. Thats about 35% of hands compared to 47% chip EV calling range.

Without more reads, I think you need to call. It is a real easy GTO call, but most people shove too tight. You should call tighter than GTO, but this has to be a call.

I think most people live will shove too tight, but in a $150 online absent reads I'd expect villain to play closer to correct.

Imo you just have to take these spots - you don't have that much control in tourneys where you can carefully navigate your way to a top 3 finish. Sometimes you have to just take the slightly +ev play and hope you run well

This is a snap call. There is some ICM pressure but you have him massively covered and Ax with 8bb is quite far into calling range.

Oh, I see. I thought he saw flop. The cards indicated he rabbit hunted i guess.

Yeah, I don't play GG (stupid America) but I'm pretty sure when they're just half-peeled like that, that that's what it is.

The action is also at the bottom of the screenshot by street, so you can see the jam is preflop.

Would be a spot where I am happily calling. In ChipEV land this would be a slam dunk-call, w/ ICM considerations makes it closer but the fact that we have a larger stack and not crippled if we lose is crucial here. If we have reason to believe Villain would be shoving WAY too tight here, there could be consideration for finding a fold here but that doesn’t seem be to the case in this instance. If this was a live tourney for example against some specific rec players that fit that description, I would actually advocate for folding.

Very intrigued by this 10% rule of thumb (seems reasonable, I just have never heard this) if you have any additional context or more detail on this would be curious to hear.

I read it too in one of Dara O'Kearney's books; I think he credited Ben Heath with the idea.

If the opponent's playing GTO, this is a call. But people play tighter than that.

I called in a similar situation with a9o the other day, opponent had K7 and doubled up off me. I had a read on that villain, though, and my hand was slightly better.

It's so marginal I fold, also it can be good to keep the guy around and play 6 handed since you cover all but 1 of the other players. Lots of stealing opportunities to make up for the tiny ev you lose by folding.

I would call here, he can easily show up with KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,JT,QT and sooted connecters which are all value jams bvb