Doomsday Prepper Thread
In this moment, a very short term Tbill issued by the US government yields more than the 10y treasury.
That is *not* a sign the market (ie the totality of people with money worldwide) think the US government is in trouble paying it's debt, or will be in the next years, or the value of the USD will crash in the next years.
They can be wrong in the aggregate, but that's what the currenty yield curve is telling you.
That is the current yield curve but it has been steepening since the rate cut. Not so long ago, the 2 year paid a higher yield than the 10 year.
We need a good Economic collapse/prepping thread.
I think everyone from lefties to right wingers will want to post there.
I keep refreshing this thread to find out who won and all I get is this doomsday prepper stuff please repair
You can't give people food unless you either own food production supply chains or have something of value you can exchange with food producers for the food they have. Once fiat currencies fail, the government will have neither, unless they plan to sell off assets to exchange for food but that's only a temporary delay that still results in inevitable famine.
lol once again libertarians don’t understand how government works. they have the monopoly on violence, they absolutely could force producers to sell to them at certain prices so that they could give it away.
in any case, why would fiat fail just because the US dollar goes through high inflation? by definition the debt would be worth much less so your worries about debt sizes would diminish the more your predictions come true.
in reality it benefits everyone who currently holds US debt that the US stays afloat— else the debt that they hold is worthless and if they have US investments those also lose a lot of value. it’s like thinking that people will all of a sudden not value making money because of their risk tolerance, not realizing that the risk tolerance is the reason they’re invested in the first place.
That is the current yield curve but it has been steepening since the rate cut. Not so long ago, the 2 year paid a higher yield than the 10 year.
Yes and an inverted yield curve is a market signal for weakness of the economy, not a credit check.
If you want to check the creditworthiness signal of the bond market, you have to compare with something else.
So take bond issuances in USD for other countries (or entities) with the same coupon structure and duration, and see what else worldwide is considered a better credit risk than the US government.
Or, you are actually claiming the totality of debt everywhere in the world for all entities is at a very high risk of default which is quite the claim, but you can still trade that by buying a ton of CDS for everything and making a killing if you are right even partially.
In this moment, a very short term Tbill issued by the US government yields more than the 10y treasury.
That is *not* a sign the market (ie the totality of people with money worldwide) think the US government is in trouble paying it's debt, or will be in the next years, or the value of the USD will crash in the next years.
They can be wrong in the aggregate, but that's what the currenty yield curve is telling you.
he thinks fiat currency = worthless so he doesn’t understand currency speculation I fear
Treasury will just keep printing more dollars for as long as it's the global reserve currency.
the treasury raised interest rates to reverse year over year inflation and was quite successful at it. it’s almost like the people in charge of the fed want the fed to do its job and aren’t just mindlessly printing money.
Or they do like venezuela, ie they take the food producing companies if they refuse to sell for the fiat at the prices the government is willing to pay.
Nationalizing the assets, aside from running into constitutional issues in that the government is not legally authorized to do so, will fail like every other communist experiment because they won't know how to manage the enterprise even up to its current level of production or keep their employees satisfied while maintaining a profit and if they can't make a profit, they won't be able to operate because credit will have collapsed.
Not to mention Trump's own supporters claim to be anti-communists so are unlikely to sign off on a plan of nationalization.
Treasury will just keep printing more dollars for as long as it's the global reserve currency.
The american treasury doesn't print dollars nor has the power to print dollars.
Congress can de facto print dollars (through deficits) and the federal reserve technically does print dollars (but it isn't printing much these days).
A lot of the money creation in advanced economy though (defining money as M1 or M2, the normal aggregates used to measure the quantity of money) comes from commercial banks.
And they don't print on their own will, they print when there is a demand for loans and they accept to provide those loans
EDIT: unless you mean the actual making of coins and bills, which account for only a very small portion of money in circulation
the treasury raised interest rates to reverse year over year inflation and was quite successful at it. it’s almost like the people in charge of the fed want the fed to do its job and aren’t just mindlessly printing money.
The fed did jfc , the fed, it's independent et al on purpose, it's not the treasury
M2 today is lower NOMINALLY than it was in november 2021
This is the definition of M2
US M2 Money Stock refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily-available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits.
lol once again libertarians don’t understand how government works. they have the monopoly on violence, they absolutely could force producers to sell to them at certain prices so that they could give it away.
in any case, why would fiat fail just because the US dollar goes through high inflation? by definition the debt would be worth much less so your worries about debt sizes would diminish the more your predictions come true.
in reality it benefits everyone who currently holds US debt that the US
The dollar will collapse because most people will realize it is trash when the Fed has to once again print it to prevent a bond market collapse, despite the fact inflation remains above their supposed target.
People holding bonds won't lose if they're the first ones out the door (except versus gold holders who have already far outpaced their return this year). It is everyone behind the initial flight that crashes the market that will lose everything.
If you think government has a monopoly on violence, you must not live in the United States where a hundred million gun owners reside. If you think Americans will line up for unpaid labor like good communist slaves, I believe you are the one who is delusional. People aren't going to run businesses without a profit motive, and will resist the enslavement that is forced and unpaid communist labor.
Or, you are actually claiming the totality of debt everywhere in the world for all entities is at a very high risk of default which is quite the claim, but you can still trade that by buying a ton of CDS for everything and making a killing if you are right even partially.
Yes, this is what I believe. I mean, sure, there are some solvent entities, but I believe many governments, businesses and individuals to be in bad shape. Everyone can choose their own hedges, we're already far enough away from the election topic of this thread to debate the merits of each.
We need a good Economic collapse/prepping thread.
I think everyone from lefties to right wingers will want to post there.
I'm not sure if you're joking. But I think it's a good idea.
Many here are probably less worried as individuals because they are old. Still, if you believe climate change is real, it seems you should be planning accordingly. There are other reasonable concerns too.
The dollar will collapse because most people will realize it is trash when the Fed has to once again print it to prevent a bond market collapse, despite the fact inflation remains above their supposed target.
People holding bonds won't lose if they're the first ones out the door (except versus gold holders who have already far outpaced their return this year). It is everyone behind the initial flight that crashes the market that will lose everything.
If you think government has a monopoly on viole
If i were to believe the USA were close (even in a 3-5 years sense) to the scenario you describe, i would try to analyze the rest of the world.
So under your scenario, what happens in switzerland? singapore? new zealand? japan? (i am asking if the scenario of USD collapse unfolds as you imagine)
I'm not sure if you're joking. But I think it's a good idea.
Many here are probably less worried as individuals because they are old. Still, if you believe climate change is real, it seems you should be planning accordingly. There are other reasonable concerns too.
roflmao if you believe climate change is real nothing changes. If you believe the most apocalyptic scenario of climate porn social media, just move a little over the sea level in a cold place not too close to water sources and you'll be fine.
The dollar will collapse because most people will realize it is trash when the Fed has to once again print it to prevent a bond market collapse, despite the fact inflation remains above their supposed target.
People holding bonds won't lose if they're the first ones out the door (except versus gold holders who have already far outpaced their return this year). It is everyone behind the initial flight that crashes the market that will lose everything.
Or the opposite could happen where people try to exit the market and the big players buy back in and the market shoots through the moon and early sellers are stuck holding the bag. By the way this is exactly what happens almost every recession, which is why the mega rich tend to come out of a recession much wealthier.
Have fun betting against the productive power of US capitalism, that usually turns out well lol
If you think government has a monopoly on violence, you must not live in the United States where a hundred million gun owners reside. If you think Americans will line up for unpaid labor like good communist slaves, I believe you are the one who is delusional. People aren't going to run businesses without a profit motive, and will resist the enslavement that is forced and unpaid communist labor.
oh please, this is such a larp. number one, compensating food producers for food at a reduced rate so that people don’t starve is not communism. for two, the history of the US against insurrections has been swift and fierce. thirdly it’s mostly the larping city folk that haven’t spent a day in the field that are libertarians.
