2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2...
Bruh. I feel like they could have made way more of impact if they didn’t try to “withhold” their vote.
That isn't true. When they can take our votes for granted, they do. What really forces parties to change is when they need votes that are there to be won.
Of course there's a short term risk. It's an awful position to be in.
I wonder how many people have googled "how can we deport Musk?"
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2...
Bruh. I feel like they could have made way more of impact if they didn’t try to “withhold” their vote.
They're morons for not endorsing Harris. If they think a passively-permissive policy toward Israel was bad wait until they see wait Trump has in store for them.
LOOOOL
Not sure if this vid loads but looks like Mr & Mrs Trump may have had a disagreement
Record turnout in most states, and historically, high turnout = blue win. This is exactly why the republican party supports so many policies that tend to suppress voter turnout. This is one of the reasons early voting trends increased my confidence. Election day trends are reinforcing this.
Historically, you are absolutely right.
But beware, given how low information / low propensity to vote changed their affiliations and leanings, that could have stopped being the case this cycle
Goidel, Moreira, and Armstrong investigate this by examining how higher turnout could have affected Democratic vote share in the 2010 to 2020 elections. Building on a technique employed by political scientists Michael Martinez and Jeff Gill, the authors of the new paper use statistical models to estimate the probability that people vote as well as the probability that, when they vote, they vote Democratic or Republican.
They then simulate higher and lower turnout levels by adding or dropping voters based on their predicted probability of turning out. For example, to “raise” turnout by 5 percentage points, you’d take people who didn’t vote and “add” the ones with the highest chance of voting to the electorate until the turnout rate is 5 points higher. Based on these new voters’ predicted chance of voting Democratic or Republican, you can estimate how much this 5-point increase in turnout helped or hurt either party.
A key finding: Increases in turnout no longer increase Democratic vote share very much. For example, here’s what they write about the estimated impact of increasing turnout by 15 points over the actual level in each of the six elections:
A 15% increase in turnout would have led to a 1.5% increase in Democratic votes in 2010, a 1.0% increase in 2012, a .7% increase in 2014, a .3% increase in 2016, a .2% increase in 2018, and a .4% increase in 2020.
🦅 Pennsylvania - VBM Ballots ED Update 2
📥 1,892,614 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 1,044,697 - 86.9% returned
🔴 GOP: 622,861 - 86.9% returned
🟡 IND: 225,056 - 79.7% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 55.1% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.9%
🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+421,836
📈 Return Edge: (=)
There's no upside to having a fake Melania running around with Trump vs simply not having her there at all, so my money is on eye doctor appointment or she fell down the stairs.
NYT: The Polls Are Close. The Results Might Not Be.
These two things are true about the presidential race: The polls currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump effectively tied. And close polls do not necessarily mean there will be a close result.
This may feel counterintuitive, but the fact is that we are just a very normal polling error away from either candidate landing a decisive victory, especially in the Electoral College.
This is a point my colleague Nate Cohn has made regularly in his election race updates over the last few weeks. But it bears repeating, because a lopsided result when there is an expectation of only razor-thin margins could further fan distrust in the polls and in the electoral process itself.
“You can have a close election in the popular vote and somebody could break 315 Electoral College votes, which will not look close,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Or you could get a popular vote that is five points” apart, he added, “which is, by today’s standards, a landslide — a word no one has used this year.”
Source:
🦅 Pennsylvania - VBM Ballots ED Update 2
📥 1,892,614 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 1,044,697 - 86.9% returned
🔴 GOP: 622,861 - 86.9% returned
🟡 IND: 225,056 - 79.7% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 55.1% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.9%
🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+421,836
📈 Return Edge: (=)
That IND vote is gonna hurt trump big time
I am surprised DEM still edge out that high wasnt expecting it to be that big of a margin
Record turnout in most states, and historically, high turnout = blue win. This is exactly why the republican party supports so many policies that tend to suppress voter turnout. This is one of the reasons early voting trends increased my confidence. Election day trends are reinforcing this.
even as a democrat or liberal or whatever may be I just am baffled how requiring a id = voter supression
even as a democrat or liberal or whatever may be I just am baffled how requiring a id = voter supression
Voter ID isn't voter suppression, but in some cases republicans reduced the amount of voting places in democrat-heavy areas when they governed and stuff like that, that's not nice to do
No i mean tell me more generally how much are you willing to use those tools to de-naturalize people. Or was your proposal targeted lawfare against political opponents?
Ruh, roh. Here we go again.
Ballot dumps in the middle of the night incoming.
Pennsylvania county extends voting hours after 'software issue' with scanning ballots
This was always going to happen in PA and WI because they can't start processing mail-in ballots until election day. MI changed their law so now they can start processing early.
But what you need to understand is that in MI there will be a "ballot dump" when they post election results when their polls close. Its just that it will coincide with all votes done in person and in advance.
In PA and WI when a county finishes counting their mail-in ballots by tabulating machine they will post the results which include Trump and Kamala votes. There is no other way to do it because they count the mail-in ballots all at once after all of them have been signature and date checked.
