2024 ELECTION THREAD

https://x.com/umichvoter/status/18539787...

Another good twitter account to follow

https://x.com/umichvoter

The stream I'm watching said exit polling in Wisconsin shows 20% black support for Trump.

This strikes me as absolutely batshit crazy and not possibly true, but if it's even kinda sorta true, then WAAF.

Too early to tell

seems large urbanvotes still need to be tallied in NC

So far this feels like the predictable beginning 20 moves of a chess match. Now we are in the bushes. Do any of PA, NC, GA, AZ or NV flip this time?

He can do that all in good time.

You sure it wasn't black MEN?

Thoughtson what you guys are seeing so far? woudl yourather be harris camp or trump camp?

do you see overperformane massive by others?

buggest surise is prolly FL being decimated and overperformed even republican polls by 2%

88% of the vote in, 57% in favor of a right to abortion to be put into the Florida constitution (threshold for the propositio to pass: 60%)

15 % of floridian voted for Trump AND for abortion

Trump is doing better than expected , still not a done deal

this is legit free money for harris, like absurd money for harris. pure value even if you think trump will win

I'm sure our man Gorgonian is backing up the truck.

Pretty much this.

A little disappointing but still on track. Georgia has lots of blue left and could still come around. North Carolina will be close. Pennsylvania is where the money is and is going well so far.

Florida not terribly surprising given the huge influx of conservatives to that state. Not indicative nationally at all.

All in all, still REALLY early and can't really draw any conclusions on the ultimate outcome. People calling it one way or the other are crazy.

im not trying to jest or anythign but it just seems really good value eve nif you think trump is going to win. NV, ARZ not even close to dclaring and Virginia still needs DC urban votes, just seems money to be grabbed

Why would you be sure of that?

Trump +5.5% in Georgia, around 90% to win it according to polymarket

There have only been two female candidates for a DEM/GOP party run for president. I think the models/polling still does a horrible job predicting how people will vote for a female. Hildawg lost the white female vote.

Gorgonian's predictions always seemed like wishcasting.

At this point, I'd be very, very surprised if Harris won NC or Georgia. It all comes down to PA. Harris's underperformance in Virginia suburns is a worrying sign, and I'd put the odds at approximately where the betting markets are.

Just put 100 on Kamala for extra pain