2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread
Ladies and gentleman, that time of the year is almost upon us. Republican debates start next month and I am looking forward to seeing all my friends again. It almost feels like school is back in session.
Some interesting candidates this year and wondering if Domahhhh is going to risk his entire net worth on a coinflip of a single election (getting -180 of course).
We didn't think it could get any worse but here we are. I wish the BOL to all competitors in this arena.
Popular Vote
Sharp money pouring in on harris pv last few days
Ok nice. I have PV +550 tix too. BOL.
Here's my map. Start with 2020 Electoral Map. Give Georgia back to the GOP. Dems pickup North Carolina. Dems hold NV and AZ as well at the Midwest States of WI, MI. PA goes GOP but doesn't matter. Harris wins 284 to 254.
She isn't winning Nevada or Arizona. I like your map besides that.
Harris winning NC is a great bet, imo. The governor's race could cost Trump the election.
Took 0.35u on Harris straight up so far to go with my 0.05u on Harris -99.5 as a big dog
I might get more involved in the morning
My map is the blue wall plus NC go blue as the median outcome
Unsure about Nevada
She wins pop vote but am mad at myself I missed the -165 or whatever the peak was oh well
Mark Lotter on CNN suggested early D voting is well behind 2020 levels in urban areas of swing states.
I would reserve comparing anything to 2020 but interesting nonetheless.
Last minute unit on Harris +158 as my main position will have to do
Am annoyed at myself that I missed popular vote at -160 odd a week ago it was the best bet of the cycle but oh well. When it's fairly flippy I can't pass on a +158 dog although not going insane with multi units like in 2020
GL All
I'm going with 292-246 in favour of Harris as final prediction
Also have dust on Harris -99.5 but tiny sizing at long odds.
For what it's worth I believe Harris is a small favourite currently too after the latest polling. Obviously nowhere near as much of a lock as Biden was last sample but she's come back in about 50 cents for a reason, the momentum has re-flipped a bit in the final days.
Am waiting for complete information at this stage though before firing anything.
The idea that anyone got lucky betting on Biden in 2020 is flatly ridiculous, there was a significant polling error in Trump's favour and Biden still w
What would you make the PV as fair odds?
I don’t really post here, but have been following along.
Have $2500 to profit $4300 on Kamala
$500 at +300 if not Kamala vs trump bet void (right before Biden dropped out)
$1K at +150
$1K at +130
Trump at -250 rn
Added a unit Harris +215 to the early market overreaction
Think i'm done now
Trump is only -152 to win popular rn, that’s wild
Sorry I meant to say Kamala , she was like -350/-400 a cpl hours ago
hope prediction markets get more respect after today
Ouch
Well at least the polls cant miss the fourth time again since he wont be on the ballot. And people wonder why the liberal media cant be trust.
French bettor explain his thesis. Can someone explain to me why people say he wrong in that thead?
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/18538182...
Well at least the polls cant miss the fourth time again since he wont be on the ballot. And people wonder why the liberal media cant be trust.
French bettor explain his thesis. Can someone explain to me why people say he wrong in that thead?
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/18538182...
Wish I saw this 10 hours ago , go allin on trump lol
Guy is spot on
