2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
I linked before that the person who bet 40M USD on polymarket on trump moving odds from around 55-58 to 63-64 like 10 days ago was found to exist for real (for a while ppl thought it was PAC money to manipulate public perception), he gave an interview where he showed a complete lack of understanding of basic statistics used to justify his allin bet.
Thanks. I missed that post.
I am a little confused as well about why Trump is so heavily favored to win Pennsylvania in the betting markets. If I had to place a Kamala bet right now, betting on her to win PA is probably what I would choose.
john king said it in 2020 they had tons of late ballots to count, doesnt seem they have that this time around i assume news reports would have been saying it
When the exit polls say that they are voting for the economy and his only economic plan is tariff then its absolutely the fault of the voter for being too stupid to understand that Trumps plan is objectively awful
Yes why would voters not believe the plan of someone who for years positioned herself at the very margin of radical leftism is better for the economy?
blame the voters
As far as I can tell, not a single state so far has flipped from the 2020 result, so some of you guys are making a lot of premature noise. Unless GA got called?
It seems the issue is that men, especially Hispanic men, are changing parties at a rate that it would be impossible for Kamala to win if these trends stay consistent through all the swing states; and there is nothing to indicate the trend wont be consistent.
I have been beating this drum for probably 10 years in various forums; but I always felt that the Democrat party promoting immigration from conservative cultures, promoting racial polarization, and then assuming that people from those conservative cultures would vote Democrat for reasons of racial solidarity, was playing with fire. And it looks like they finally may have gotten burnt.
Without even probably realizing it because they deny evolutionary psychology and psychological sexual dimorphism, the Democrat party has been has been promoting political rhetoric that caters more towards female psychology than males; and if they wish to recapture the lost male vote, they are going to have to re-orient how they present their politics and platform moving forward.
Yes i think you should go out of trump at 92-93-95, and it's plausible that going Harris at 5-6 is +EV, but i was mainly thinking of position size,if you got into Trump at 50-55-60 you should take a lot of profit down the road to 90+ unless you are gambling for fun not for money
Lol yes.
If you put in 100k at 50c and get out now and have ~180k, jamming it all in Kamala may not be ideal.
I am a little confused as well about why Trump is so heavily favored to win Pennsylvania in the betting markets. If I had to place a Kamala bet right now, betting on her to win PA is probably what I would choose.
Being from rural PA, I can completely understand why Trump is heavily favored to win the state.
Trump is up less than 100,000 votes in PA currently but at this time in 2020 was up 200,000 votes and lost. Still too early to call PA.
I am a little confused as well about why Trump is so heavily favored to win Pennsylvania in the betting markets. If I had to place a Kamala bet right now, betting on her to win PA is probably what I would choose.
I mean time is arbitrary, you obviously should lookat where the voted we have came from and how they compare. No idea if bettors are doing that accurately.
If she loses, it's not due to sex. Sample size of 2, both deeply unpopular. You're talking about a candidate who finished dead last in primaries, then skipped the next primary you guys latch on to her sex.
Plenty of woman governors. Plenty of female heads of state in more conservative countries. Decades ago.
Maybe you're seeing the result of a horribly broken system.
also Dems adopted a ton of Republican policies from between 2004 and 2019 and wholeheartedly did a genocide. if it happens, she loses its bc she supported a Stephen Miller immigration plan, campaigned with the warmongering neocon Cheneys, and vowed to continue a genocide.
and I would contend that the system is working exactly as intended.
john king said it in 2020 they had tons of late ballots to count, doesnt seem they have that this time around i assume news reports would have been saying it
I understand, but most of the counties that are still reporting in PA seem to be heavily blue, and just based on a back of the envelope calculation, I would have guessed that it would still end up being excruciatingly close.
Coordie thinks that dramatically cutting regulation of production (especially for fossil fuel extraction) doesn't increase GDP while reducing inflation.
did you see the video of Kamala pretending to call voters and got caught? what a fraud
It seems the issue is that men, especially Hispanic men, are changing parties at a rate that it would be impossible for Kamala to win if these trends stay consistent through all the swing states; and there is nothing to indicate the trend wont be consistent.
I have been beating this drum for probably 10 years in various forums; but I always felt that the Democrat party promoting immigration from conservative cultures, promoting racial polarization, and then assuming that people from those conse
Nothing more American than voting against ones self interests
Yes what I'm seeing is (in PA) the predominantly red counties are pretty much reported in with a lot of larger pop blue counties with a lot to go. I don't know if enough but clearly she's got another 100k votes coming from Philadelphia alone so we'll see if it's enough I'm not sure
Well, this is all looking pretty ****ed. I'm going back to bed. Let's see if those promised middle of the night vote dumps for Harris materialise.
