Bluff vs Reg
18k Hands . 24/20 WWSF 52% W$SD 51
Cbet Flop 56% Fold River Bet 48%
iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 24.35, PFR: 20.54, 3Bet Preflop: 9.64, Hands: 18,152)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.95, PFR: 20.34, 3Bet Preflop: 10.68, Hands: 21,051)
BTN: 107.38 BB (VPIP: 24.99, PFR: 20.84, 3Bet Preflop: 10.27, Hands: 13,651)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.15, PFR: 18.13, 3Bet Preflop: 7.99, Hands: 1,926)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♣ A♣
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB
Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) K♥ 9♥ 2♦
Hero checks, UTG checks
Turn: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 3♣
Hero bets 4.12 BB, UTG calls 4.12 BB
River: (13.74 BB, 2 players) 3♥
[color=red][b]Hero
10 Replies
What's your question?
I would overbet turn for max pressure. Nice side effect: your A outs become clean. Not sure if river is over or under bluffed, so I would use some gto reasoning aka balanced betting range. On paired board A high has at least some showdownvalue -> check. I think that villain arrives otr with some unimproved Ax combos, so holding an A is bad -> check. Villain calling range includes Kx and 9x, so you want cards which are in that region like Q, T, J, with h would be great. I dont see much reason to bet your hand and I think that you would be over bluffing if you bet it -> check.
My question is which hands are good to Bluff turn/River, and the sizes. This hand for example I bet turn for the gutshot, because I have near to 0% FE OTT. I think the river is good to Bluff, because most regs will bet with FD OTF, and his range is a little capped to mid pairs, 9x and maybe some weak Kx.
i think that you have significat fold equity ott, since most regs dont construct their checking ranges very well. this is also stated and backuped with mda in saulo costas latest video (i guess). just because they have no flushs in their range otr, doesnt mean they will fold enough against your bets. they only face aggression over 2 streets, so they are more likely to call off w/ Kx, 9x, especially if they are aware of the fact that they lack flushs otr due to flop cbetting too much with flushdraws.
Seems like a 100% river bet here - he probably has no Kx, no flushes. This is one of the better board run outs when he has hands like 9x/77 - flush got there, 3 turned to trips - for him to call he'd have to assume you're just going bet bet with your whole range.
Seems like a 100% river bet here - he probably has no Kx, no flushes. This is one of the better board run outs when he has hands like 9x/77 - flush got there, 3 turned to trips - for him to call he'd have to assume you're just going bet bet with your whole range.
People love to hero call on the river on paired boards. His range is Ax Kx and medium pp. He isn't folding this river.
Because of this I would bet any 9 or 88/77 for value on river.
I would pure bluff those 45s type of hands, then some TJs before QJ, A4s before A5s. A5 has some SDV vs his A4 and QJ.
You can go either way with this hand probably better to give up vs UTG.
I find this flop is overcbet and the hands they check are not hands they plan to fold on later streets - hands like TT-QQ T9s A9 perhaps
Prob too low equity to run a bluff here but if you do you have to go pretty big on both streets
People love to hero call on the river on paired boards. His range is Ax Kx and medium pp. He isn't folding this river.
Because of this I would bet any 9 or 88/77 for value on river.
Yeh I think you're right - in theory it's a good board but the reality in 2024 is people arent folding capped ranges like this. It would be interesting to incorporate big overbets in spots like this - would make it much harder for capped ranges to call.
2.5x probe turn jam river.
18k hands on someone is a lot so I'd look at his showdowns to see if he protects flop check back ranges enough. I wouldn't be surprised if he is range folding vs the above sizing's. And if he calls that is good for later on since you play with him a lot.
