Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
A glimmer of hope for Ukraine comes from the financial markets. Not everyone agrees to look at markets as a probability signal but the fact that Ukrainian bonds are doing very well in the aftermath of the elections can't be a bad sign for Ukraine
Can you guys help me to realize whether this a good or bad scenario for us?
Let's assume Trump forces Ukraine -and Europe- into a peace deal where Russia gets to keep the lands it has conquered. My question is: wouldn't it be actually a good thing?
Putin would save face by claiming getting hold of 27% of Ukraine was his plan and call it a victory. At the same time he will have realized that marching westward with belligerent intentions comes at a hefty price, deterring him from further progress in the years to come. I think people who claim Poland is next and so on are not seeing the whole picture: the victim was Ukraine all along, yes, but this war had consequences for Russia too.
To wrap it up: Russia keeps the 27% of Ukraine after the peace deal is done. While that may seem like a defeat for the West we showed Putin that any territorial ambitions will come with a price, preventing future wars in the region.
I fail to see why a peace deal like the one I described is bad: Ukraine will have lost a respectable size of its territory but make no mistake: Putin knows now that the West isn't as nearly fragmented as he thought it was.
Ending support does not end the war. As you said, at the current pace it would take Russia 110 years to conquer all of Ukraine, removing support shortens that time by a lot, but it doesn't shorten it to the point that Ukraine immediately capitulates. Ukrainians know what happens if they give concessions to Russia and some of the things Putin wants puts Ukraine in a position where they are bound to be taken over in the future.
Here's what I think will happen:
Fighting will intensify until Trump com
ending support completely ends the war where are you getting this information? there might be an insurgency but I doubt even that. it would be less "war" regardless. If nato ends support ukraine capitulates in a week even their economy is being propped up by aid the soldiers and logistics wouldn't get paid and the economy would collapse. There's probably aid sent for a couple months tho so maybe they drag it out for a little but why would that be in their best interest?
Can you guys help me to realize whether this a good or bad scenario for us?
Let's assume Trump forces Ukraine -and Europe- into a peace deal where Russia gets to keep the lands it has conquered. My question is: wouldn't it be actually a good thing?
Putin would save face by claiming getting hold of 27% of Ukraine was his plan and call it a victory. At the same time he will have realized that marching westward with belligerent intentions comes at a hefty price, deterring him from further progress i
The issue is part of Russia's demands is Ukraine's army needs to be capped to a very weak force that wouldn't be able to repel a future invasion. In your proposal, is Ukraine allowed to have freedom to arm themselves as they see fit minus nukes and a strict DMZ for both sides of the border with Russia also paying some reparations for their invasion?
im sure that's the first demand Russia would drop in negotiations. Its not realistic its just part of the game
The issue is part of Russia's demands is Ukraine's army needs to be capped to a very weak force that wouldn't be able to repel a future invasion. In your proposal, is Ukraine allowed to have freedom to arm themselves as they see fit minus nukes and a strict DMZ for both sides of the border with Russia also paying some reparations for their invasion?
Lol reparations we are lucky if with Trump we can keep the interest on Russian reserves we froze (which we gave to Ukraine iirc) , otherwise we will need to come up with those billions as well
I doubt Trump changes much about the Ukraine policy as I have been saying for 2 years now.
It was like pulling teeth getting the last round of funding passed. Doubt Trump reverses that direction but maybe someone is going to sit him down and have a talk.
because it was an election year, in a year where showing bipartisanship was seen as weakness for republican, on a topic that had a small but vocal portion of republican base voters fully against.
YET THEY DID IT ANYWAY
Pulling aid does not end the war. It gives Russia a huge advantage which results in them continuing to attack, killing more Ukrainians and taking land, but the war goes on.
I will be shocked if Trump pushes through another aid package anytime soon, he just ran on not doing that. The only way I see another getting passed is if the public outrage at Trump for letting Russia murder Ukrainians gets loud enough that he feels he has to. Before that happens Russia will progress and kill far more than they have been; it is going to be awful.
Pulling aid does not end the war. It gives Russia a huge advantage which results in them continuing to attack, killing more Ukrainians and taking land, but the war goes on.
I will be shocked if Trump pushes through another aid package anytime soon, he just ran on not doing that. The only way I see another getting passed is if the public outrage at Trump for letting Russia murder Ukrainians gets loud enough that he feels he has to. Before that happens Russia will progress and kill far more than th
a lot depends on what the EU does when american money runs dry.
it isn't obvious. Germany government just collapsed (and Ukraine support might be one of the reasons why). I don't know what will happen down here but there are many voices willing to step up and do our part for Ukrainians, and to keep fighting Putin and what he represents.
EU is very capped in what aid they can offer at this moment. They can't even equipment their own militaries.
I think that is possible to an extent (I don't think Trump will supply some critical things no matter what), but I have no idea how likely that is. Under the current circumstances I'd say that is the optimistic scenario, which doesn't bode well.
I also think that Ukraine has some ways to try and force aid, but it gets ugly as hell if it comes to that.
I think that is possible to an extent (I don't think Trump will supply some critical things no matter what), but I have no idea how likely that is. Under the current circumstances I'd say that is the optimistic scenario, which doesn't bode well.
I also think that Ukraine has some ways to try and force aid, but it gets ugly as hell if it comes to that.
I understand the feelings are bad at this moment in time for our team but I like to both be optimistic if realistic options exist, and a realist about stuff in general.
things will get worse but it's not obvious they will get too much worse, it will depend on a lot of things I cant predict
Both sides would reject the outline of plans that have been described in some American newspapers, so one thing we can say with a pretty high degree of certainty is that the things that Trump says he will do and that he will achieve are unrealistic. That means that the real question is not actually what Trump says he will do, but rather what Trump will do when those things that he says he will do don't work and the war doesn't stop.
This is why Ukraine risked so much on Kursk. This is why both sides have already been posturing to blame the other for this to inevitably fail. In the short term Trump definitely doesn't supply aid. The only way that he resumes it is if the outrage against the death and destruction caused by a lack of aid is large enough, before that happens Russian propaganda will be out in full force.
another angle could be, Zelensky could still be able to supply (or fabricate) evidence of Biden family involvement in corruption in Ukraine, which could be enough for Trump to give weapons
I think Zelenskyy has some options to try to force aid. I don't think Biden would really be that helpful, maybe a cherry on top.
Good stuff starting at 7 minutes in:
Broken YouTube LinkMy prediction: the war will be over within 12 months, Russia will partially withdraw with the promise Ukraine never joins NATO. Crimea almost certainly stays under Russian control. Donetsk and Luhansk I'm on the fence about.
My prediction: the war will be over within 12 months, Russia will partially withdraw with the promise Ukraine never joins NATO. \.
why would Ukraine ever agree to Russian land grabs unless they could re-draw their NEW country borders and then could join NATO???
one obstacle I guess is...worthless POS Trump, bending over to take it up the a** from his superior fanboy Putin who says No?
Pulling aid does not end the war. It gives Russia a huge advantage which results in them continuing to attack, killing more Ukrainians and taking land, but the war goes on.
I will be shocked if Trump pushes through another aid package anytime soon, he just ran on not doing that. The only way I see another getting passed is if the public outrage at Trump for letting Russia murder Ukrainians gets loud enough that he feels he has to. Before that happens Russia will progress and kill far more than th
WHAT DO YOU MEAN. THE ENTIRE WAR EFFORT IS BEING HELD TOGETHER BY AID. Why do you keep repeating this nonsense
"Despite generous military support for Ukraine by allies and partners, unless Congress passes the Defense Department's supplemental funding request, Ukraine will not be able to defend itself against Russian aggression, a senior defense official told the news media today."
and that was just one country im talking all of nato dropping out which is likely if trump pushes for that.
A good part of Ukraine’s weaponry now comes from Western countries. The ammunition for these weapons is also not produced in Ukraine.
same with the financing for the war comes from other county's. Ukraine is taking on insane debt. no one will lend Ukraine money if we pull aid because it will be a lost cause
like this is not a pro Ukraine or anti Ukraine position this is just common sense and a weird hill to die on. if anything im being pro Ukraine here guilting Americans.
The worry here is if trump stops giving aid that will also lead to NATO not giving aid by seeing it as a lost cause or just trump forcing them not too. which would have a trickle effect of Ukraine moral plummeting and capitulation. Which is why trumps advisers wont do it but ya.
continuing the war effort without aid is ****ing stupid and also just not smart of Ukraine perspective and would actually make the Ukraine government what Russia says it is as they send hundreds of thousands to their deaths for no reason. Stall the surrender and prepare an insurgency? now were talking but the conventional war would be over
I think Zelenskyy has some options to try to force aid. I don't think Biden would really be that helpful, maybe a cherry on top.
Good stuff starting at 7 minutes in:
wait you watch this guy? hes my favorite youtuber on the war. How do you watch him and have some of these takes all he talks about is lines for future negotiations THATHAVE TO HAPPEN AT SOME POINT.
I already watched this and got that 109 year statistic from it
