2/5 300bb deep 4b pot
Villain is a solid reg, no particular reads, capable of standard plays
300bb eff, Hero UTG+1 opens to 15 w AsAh, V BTN 3b to 50, Hero 4b to 170, V calls
Flop - Qs4h2c - Hero cbet 80, V calls
Turn - 4c - Hero bet 210, V calls
River - Kc - Hero?
I already looked it up on gtowizard, looking for some live poker adjusted lines.
Tnx!
21 Replies
Are you asking about river play or earlier in the hand? As played river is 100% jam.
I am asking about the hand overall
Pot is 927 and effective stack is 1,040? Honestly think check and fold to a jam or very large bet. Or bet 10% to 15% pot and fold. People are generally not going to be capable of bluffing here for large size. You lose to AcQc, QQ, KK and the few hands you beat are just very unlikely to bluff here. He could have just 1 combo of AdQd, possibly the 2 combos of KQs, and some JJ. But for population to turn those hands into bluffs extraordinary. And the hands that you beat mainly won't call a vakue bet here. You also chop with the last combo of AA.
In general 4b size when OOP this week is like 4x-4.5x,170 is too small imo.
I would guess flop size is larger, like 40%. Turn size also I think would be larger. We might work in some checks on flop and/or turn this deep as well.
Pot is 927 and effective stack is 1,040? Honestly think check and fold to a jam or very large bet. Or bet 10% to 15% pot and fold. People are generally not going to be capable of bluffing here for large size. You lose to AcQc, QQ, KK and the few hands you beat are just very unlikely to bluff here. He could have just 1 combo of AdQd, possibly the 2 combos of KQs, and some JJ. But for population to turn those hands into bluffs extraordinary. And the hands that you beat mainly won't call a v
Lots of typos. For us to 4b OOP this deep* I would go 4x to 4.5x.
Would be interested to know more about BN's 3betting range. If "solid reg" means he's not calling that often on the BN, then he could be 3betting relatively wide, and, given how deep you are and the smallish 4bet size, defending relatively wide IP.
This means he could have QcJc as well as AcQc; KhQh and KdQd; and possibly Ad4d and Ac5c --- expanding his value range beyond KK and QQ. I don't see many more bluffs in this defending range, aside from maybe Ad5d which is folding flop a fair amount.
So x/f river is probably ok. Block betting river gets value from one combo of AQ and two combos of QJs, maybe some AcKx, so it might be ok to bet small/fold.
Tnx everyone for your replies. Side note for myself, since I haven’t studied as much spots this deep - bigger sizings pre & post flop.
River - Hero bet 300, V shoves, Hero folds.
I definitely go bigger pre, flop, and turn. River sucks. Bet/fold is fine.
Knowing the range of the buttons 3b is important whether or not to 4b this - also if he thinks you're capable of 4bing lighter then the nuts. Perfect scenario would be he has a tight 3b range and thinks you 4b light but realistically that's not the case. Could argue just calling the 3b depending his tendencies. Your flop sizing is way too small for having like 360 in the pot - some of his range is just calling one street and folding so getting a bigger bet out of him is ideal. Breaking down the river - a fair range would be QQ,AQ,KK,KQs - maybe throw a stubborn JJ with a lower frequency. AQ will most likely fold to a river bet/jam - there's really no value to be had betting. If we check and he bets - he really doesn't bet worse hands. He's not betting AQ - he can't have the AKcc so I don't think he ever has AK. Just check/fold.
I don't like to check/fold because this is the best card in the deck for V to bluff.
What does he get to the river with that will decide to bluff? I don't think AQ bluffs here - maybe a rare JJ? Problem is we don't know if he gets here with JJ (maybe folds turn some % of the time) and he won't turn JJ into a bluff 100% of the time whereas we know he gets here with the other hands 100% of the time.
AcQx, AcKx that floated the flop, the other AA (not really a bluff, but it works), JJ if he got here. Maybe it is a check/fold, but gross. The flop bet was just way too small.
I'm a beginner here. Forgive my ignorance, but I was wondering how can you estimate the bet sizes on any hand when it depends on how previous hands were played, sequences of hands, other factors like what the image and rep of villain is...
I'd discount all Ax hands and JJ, so it's QQ or KK pretty much only.
I would bet less otr or even try an c/c a reasonable bet if possible.
I'm a beginner here. Forgive my ignorance, but I was wondering how can you estimate the bet sizes on any hand when it depends on how previous hands were played, sequences of hands, other factors like what the image and rep of villain is...
Hand texture, board texture, value, deny draws, etc. $80 into ~$340 is too small. I mean, if OP can give a reason -- V will attack a weak bet, V will fold AQ, KK, JJ, etc., to anything bigger -- then I can get behind it (not really, but I could get behind $125 or so). Otherwise, it's too small.
Flop bet indeed is too small, my plan was to go for b33/b33/shove on a decent runout. However it was after about 9 hrs of play so i was kinda tired.
In hindsight, vs the typical winning 2/5 reg, I think b33/fold OTR is better to be done if I have the nut flush blocker. Without it now I think it’s just a x/f.
Flop bet indeed is too small, my plan was to go for b33/b33/shove on a decent runout. However it was after about 9 hrs of play so i was kinda tired.
In hindsight, vs the typical winning 2/5 reg, I think b33/fold OTR is better to be done if I have the nut flush blocker. Without it now I think it’s just a x/f.
yeah, c/f to a big river bet is fine if you're confident with your read and how well you know him but I wouldn't even be thinking about flushes or NFB'rs in these spots since AK/AQ isn't very likely.
Tnx everyone for your replies. Side note for myself, since I haven’t studied as much spots this deep - bigger sizings pre & post flop.
River - Hero bet 300, V shoves, Hero folds.
Well played!
I'm a beginner here. Forgive my ignorance, but I was wondering how can you estimate the bet sizes on any hand when it depends on how previous hands were played, sequences of hands, other factors like what the image and rep of villain is...
Well, and lot of guess work has to be done at what the absolute best sizing is. A lot of the guess work comes from studying what a solver does. Even though we can try to deviate to exploit opponents, a lot of times the solver gives a good baseline. And in 4 bet pots the largest part of ranges are typically pretty well defined. A lot of times the 4bettor is going to have more AA, KK, and the caller is going to have more QQ, JJ, TT, AQs type hands. The more aggressive the 4bettor is, the more likely they are to have AK and the light 4bets like A5s. The more aggressive the 3bet caller is, the less likely they are to have AK if they would 5bet shove.
You have to consider things like stack depth, but my simple rule in 4bet pots as the preflop aggressor is typically to go 15% pot with most of range on A high boards, 33% pot with most of range on K high boards, and on most other boards going 40% pot or check, including strong hands like overpairs in the check range, something like bet 2/3 of the time and check 1/3 of the time.
Turn and river size depend on what the best size to get in stacks in by the river is. On boards where the relative nuts didn't change much, it is usually going to be the geometric size where it is the same % pot bet on turn and river, IE bet turn 40% pot, jam river 40% pot. On wet boards where stack depth isn't too high we may be betting flops and checking or jamming turns. When the relative nuts change on the turn we are more likely to size down. IE, flop is jack high, turn is an Ace, really downgrading hands like KK, QQ, and other hands that were beating A high on the flop. So where our size might have been 40% on a non-nut changing turn, it might be 25% on the nut changing turn.
Again, the nice thing about 4bet pots is that ranges are going to be more well defined compared to 3bet pots and single raised pots, and with lower stack depth, there are less branches in the game tree to remember, because there are relatively few significantly different bet sizes and raise sizes that can happen before all the money gets in. So even though 4bet pots are the least common pot you will play, they are one of the easiest to learn. And when they do pop up, they will typically be big pots. So I think you benefit a good deal by studying 4bet pots away from the table.
And yeah we can deviate some in 4bet pots against our opponents, but typically I think we will be deviating less than than in 3bet pots and single raised pots. Especially when it comes to flop sizing, I think general principles for 4bet pots will be the same. But the same basic exploits are going to hold true. The biggest one is that people underbluff, so bluff catch less than a solver would. Although we have to be mindful that a lot of times when the spr is so low, we are still stacking off with overpairs or AK when we hit top pair. OP's situation is a little different though, because it is rare we would get to the river with such a high SPR in a 4bet pot, but they are really deep and he used small sizing pre, on the flop, and on the turn. And the runout is terrible.
It's not so much like single raised pots where your flop and turn sizes are going to very from like 25% to 300% pot and you are going to have big deviations vs specific players which will have drastic impacts on your EV. Even if you have a very simple strategy like bet 25% pot on the flop always as the preflop aggressor in 4bet pots, that strategy probably won't be too bad. Your EV probably won't be too much lower relativr to how big the pot is than if you use more optimized sizes.
Well played!
Well, and lot of guess work has to be done at what the absolute best sizing is. A lot of the guess work comes from studying what a solver does. Even though we can try to deviate to exploit opponents, a lot of times the solver gives a good baseline. And in 4 bet pots the largest part of ranges are typically pretty well defined. A lot of times the 4bettor is going to have more AA, KK, and the caller is going to have more QQ, JJ, TT, AQs type hands. The more aggressive the 4bettor
This right here…dunno if ppl will appreciate enough the effort u put in, but i’ve been here long enough to notice quality when i see it. GG SIR
