2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Oh, was I not woke enough for you?
You seem like a redneck bully and that makes it pretty clear why you have this disgusting inferiority complex
Where do these dfs get the stupid idea that the left is "tolerant? " We're tolerant of people just living their lives, not of hateful ignorant bigots.
These fools will never get it. I've never seen a group of people so totally incapable of learning from their mistakes.
I never saw anyone saying certain or guaranteed. I certainly thought she would win but was very clear that I could be wrong.
It wasn't that you were wrong. You kept saying there were signs other people (me especially) were ignoring and they just did not exist from an honest reading of the data.
Arrogance and stupidity. What a combination.
There's still a lot I don't understand about what happened. I really have no explanation for why the polls so clearly favored Harris for so long and then almost overnight everything turned on a dime. It was the same time a lot of obviously conservative funded polls released, so it really did seem like that was the most likely explanation. I still can't explain what happened and even second guessing myself I still don't get it.
Oh well. I guess we get what we get. I hope no one expects sympathy wh
List of factors in no particular order:
-Very good last month of the campaign from Trump. Did a lot of alternative media.
-Very bad last month of the campaign from Kamala. Only did legacy media, did a lot of wasted time with Liz Cheney, courted Republicans a lot. Had multiple high profile podcasters reach out to her and she declined.
-RFK Jr dropping out and endorsing Trump was huge. Her best polls were the ones from before he dropped out and were 3 way polls.
-Kamala not going through a primary undercut the talking point about preserving democracy, even though in my mind these are two completely separate issues since Dems are a private party but the public perception is what matters.
-Effective messaging from the Trump campaign about illegal immigration, trans women in sports, and transgender youth.
-JD Vance becoming more of a factor and improving his favorability after the VP debate.
-Elon Musk raising excitement for Trump with his petition and bringing on other rich people.
-Disadvantages of the economy and perception of foreign policy failures.
-Hurricanes that were perceived as being mismanaged by the admin.
-Distrust of mainstream media so none of the media coverage that Kamala got was given any real weight.
-Trump running in general a very good campaign with Latino men, Black men, and gen Z.
Edit: oh yeah and surviving the assassination and never being sentenced to anything in all his criminal cases gave him a perception of being “badass”.
It wasn't that you were wrong. You kept saying there were signs other people (me especially) were ignoring and they just did not exist from an honest reading of the data.
FYI you and checkraisdraw are good people and have my respect. I will always give your opinions much higher value than most people here. I just want you both to know I appreciate you, especially when we disagree.
It wasn't that you were wrong. You kept saying there were signs other people (me especially) were ignoring and they just did not exist from an honest reading of the data.
And also I can see from how often you come back to it that I got under your skin at least a little on that. It was just my reading of the situation and my prediction. My apologies for being heavy handed with it. Probably just frustration that I couldn't convince you and/or others to see it my way. Obviously I was wrong and you were right, anyway, but so I feel the need to apologize for being adamant.
There isn't enough information in a close election to feel too confident one way or another. The ones that do, are often coming from a place similar to wanting their bottom seed football team to beat the champs - its emotion, because there wasn't anything rational in thinking Kamala was likely to win - which is why the majority of those with such confidence still aren't confident enough to make bets to back it up.
Polls are in part used to drive participation and attention and obviously to shine some light on public opinion, but they aren't betting lines. The betting market is superior to polls and while they do take polls into the equation, they actually attempt to quantify wtf they even mean while factoring in other considerations that polls simply don't. Which is why the markets saw through a lot of the horseshit.
General speaking, if you see a bunch of "whales" moving the market or making giant size politcal bets, it would be much smarter for your pocketbook to assume that that particular person may have something to value in regard to making that bet as opposed to thinking that they are just betting on Daddy or they are some crypto bro with money. But they could be both.
So was the huge shift by Latinos to Trump expected?
As someone who wasn't following the race or polling too closely, the shift by those counties in south Texas to Trump in such a huge way is really intriguing.
ETA-- I mean had we been told "the election is a toss-up but some of the bluest counties in south Texas are flipping red", then Trump's victory would probably have been a little more expected.
List of factors in no particular order:
-Very good last month of the campaign from Trump. Did a lot of alternative media.
-Very bad last month of the campaign from Kamala. Only did legacy media, did a lot of wasted time with Liz Cheney, courted Republicans a lot. Had multiple high profile podcasters reach out to her and she declined.
-RFK Jr dropping out and endorsing Trump was huge. Her best polls were the ones from before he dropped out and were 3 way polls.
-Kamala not going through a primary und
I'd add that liberal media is really bad at criticizing Trump without sending the message that everyone who likes him is racist or stupid. It gives Republicans a lot of fuel. Whenever I tuned into MSNBC or saw clips of The View or whatever, it almost seemed as if those people wanted Trump to win because they were doing everything they could to get him elected. There's a certain level of smugness that exists in liberal media that isn't seen that much in conservative circles, and people pick up on that.
List of factors in no particular order:
-Very good last month of the campaign from Trump. Did a lot of alternative media.
-Very bad last month of the campaign from Kamala. Only did legacy media, did a lot of wasted time with Liz Cheney, courted Republicans a lot. Had multiple high profile podcasters reach out to her and she declined.
-RFK Jr dropping out and endorsing Trump was huge. Her best polls were the ones from before he dropped out and were 3 way polls.
-Kamala not going through a primary und
You can add to the list of why Kamala’s odds of winning went from a favorite to a big dog:
Once the honeymoon of voters being happy there was someone besides Biden or trump running they started wondering why she was not taking real interviews or doing press conferences for months. Once dems realized they couldn’t use the same playbook of hiding their candidate in a basement she did a few (mostly dem friendly) interviews and she bombed them.
Attacking your opponent’s personality and avoiding talking about policy doesn’t cut it.
The over the top claims of trump being like hitler and a fascist actually made trump seem like the normal candidate compared to her.
Scapegoating businesses for price gouging that dems are mainly to blame for only tricks so many uneducated voters. Everyone else sees you are lying to get votes from stupid people.
When you are a vice president and your boss has a poor favorability rating and you are asked what would you do differently over the last 4 years one of the worst possible answers is “nothing immediately comes to mind”. How are you not prepared for that question coming?
Kamala also flip flopped on too many issues. That is bad but when asked why she flip flops so much responding with “my values haven’t changed” is incredible stupid. Should could have said “I’ve learned a lot since I held that position” , “I drank the dem kool-aid that fracking was bad but I have since actually researched it myself” or something similar.
Once the honeymoon of voters being happy there was someone besides Biden or trump running they started wondering why she was not taking real interviews or doing press conferences for months. Once dems realized they couldn’t use the same playbook of hiding their candidate in a basement she did a few (mostly dem friendly) interviews and she bombed them.
Attacking your opponent’s personality and avoiding talking about policy doesn’t cut it.
I watched the Bret Baier and Breakfast Club interviews. She did better with Baier and that was set up to be a take down. When she interviewed with Charlamagne, it came off as pandering, and the way she spoke about various demographics implied ignorance on their part.
What's up bros? Shame I missed all the fun in here but I was unaware of this thread. Here's a lil meme for you all. It's funny!
I've got plenty of room to talk. The 2020 election was suspicious as hell. The 2024 election wasn't suspicious in the slightest. It was a cut and dried landslide without any middle of the night ballot dumps and other dodgy shenanigans needed.
Then can you explain your posts leading to this election calling for rigging and cheating?
I mean, it must be investigated thoroughly now , certification will happen when all investigations are complete.
No one wants to let you down and everything will be investigated as you requested it so many times.
Politics is about finding a marginalized group of people who represents 1% of the population and radicalizing your base against them.
"Trans people are taking your medical benefits, your political capital, and your media attention"
so scary
Wow the trans issue was invented as a political topic by activists whi had won everything for homosexuals but wanted to keep freerollin donors money.
So they went on trans.
The rest of society just reacted with please stop, hello? Can you stop?, wtf is this? Just stop.
So scary
Amazed to hear Harris raised a billion and campaign ended in debt . I had no clue she paid for celebrities to show up and to appear on that Call her Daddy podcast
this was so obv for months
