1/2: Can I ever not lose my stack here?

No, you can’t fold top set here. Your bet sizes are still quite bad. And he’s definitely not folding if the turn is 4.

Why are they bad?

Issues:

1. Why are you blasting off UTG with a x7 raise, especially with a hand that's in the weaker part of your UTG raising range?
2. The flop bet also feels too large, especially with a hand that won't like a lot of the remaining cards in the deck.
3. Asking if you should've called the turn raise HU with top set at these stack sizes is like...wat?

These issues in tandem suggest you need to move past 2005 poker knowledge and commit to shoring up the fundamentals.

The criticisms above are sort of silly - this is a live game where dynamics can skew things dramatically from the "standard play". The 7x open is large but maybe that's the standard open for this game - frankly if all your opponents are massive stations calling too wide we'd rather raise large especially since our UTG open range should be fairly strong. Flop sizing is fine depending on game factors - once again if people are calling way too wide and take no inclination on sizing's then we should go larger. To the OP - on the turn it's really just a bet/call - yes he can have straights but he can also have TT/JJ, maybe some flush draws,etc. There's like 460 in there and 110 to call - even if he showed you the straight you almost have enough equity to call.

You shouldn't include the reveal in your OP, or suggest the outcome with your thread title. It biases people's advice.

I'm going to assume our hand was 9d9s not 9h9s, and the turn was the 9h, not the 9d. If I have that backwards, and the turn was the 9d, this becomes an easier decision.

Open size pre seems too large. Think $10 seems more viable. That's where the problems with this hand start. You bloated the pot from OOP.

You should consider range checking OOP on the flop, especially multi-way. It might not have saved your stack, but it might have, if the flop checked through.

When you bet 3/4 pot on the flop, and V flat calls next to act, what sort of range do you give him? I'd expect him to want to raise off 2P+, fold all his complete whiffs, and flat call with all his straight and flush draws.

While a better V shouldn't be calling a big bet next to act to chase the low end of the straight, especially on a two flush board, it's hard for him to have T9 when we have 99, and I would think he's never folding 6d5d on the flop. But it's LOL-stakes, so I could see him showing up with more 65 here, and some low number of T9 combos.

Likewise, I doubt he's folding JdTd, or any combo with two overs and 2 diamonds. He might not fold JcTc.

The point here is that you could range check flop, and get some info about your opponents' hand strength by their actions. If you must bet, I'd think a smaller bet is going to outperform a larger bet on such a wet and dynamic board.

Once you bet huge on the flop, you're narrowing your opponent's range to good draws, and the 9 on the turn brings some of those draws in.

I think I'd mostly check turn, and see what V does. Here again, we might not fold if he jams, but we might. And he might check back to slow play, allowing us to see the river without getting stacks in.

You said any other turn, you're betting, and he folds. But I think that's broken logic. You want him to call with his worse hands that are drawing slim. You want him to call flop with his draws when you have value.

But we need to be aware of how the nuts change when our hand improves, which is why we shouldn't be c-betting so large, if we c-bet at all. Yeah, we make top set, but some of his draws come in. It's hard to get value from worse when there's three to a straight or flush on board.

If we check to check-shove, depending on his bet size, we could be giving him the right odds to chase his draw. And if we just jam from up front, it's hard to think what worse hands call.

All of the above is especially true if the turn was the 9d, bringing in the FDFD, on top of 65 and JT.

I think I'd just check-call flop and turn, and evaluate river. If he bets every street, we're probably just going broke.

But if he checks back flop, which seems likely, the pot will still only be $45 (only $30 if you'd opened to $10 pre). He's unlikely to bet much more than pot if we check again on the turn. If he pots it on the turn, it'll be $135 going to the river (coulda been only $90), and we'll have $215 behind. If he jams, we might be able to get away from it.

I wouldn't go that large, but preflop is fine at some 1/2 tables. I would go less than pot on the turn.

When he shoves, if you saw he had 65 it would still be a call. Never folding top set here even if you bet smaller. Not close.

You do realize this is a 1/2 live game? It's fair to assume in 99% of live 1/2 games the average open size is rather large and opponents tend to be calling stations that don't pay attention to sizings as much as they should. Using a "baseline" strategy is not good - should be playing 100% exploitative.

If the board paired on the river would you still be posting this thread?

Feels a little disingenuous when OP asks, "can I ever escape this brutal cooler for <150bb?" and dismisses solid advice in the OP, before it's even given.

Even if the villain showed you his cards at the turn, you should have called with 10 outs with a set.

We all understand it's easier to claim that you're the only thinking player at the table, when the alternative is to admit that you're too lazy to put the work into improving your game.

I was gonna say sometimes you are dealt a game over but you are live brother.
STD as ****, even the raise sizing since its a live game.

Turn sizing is a little of a mistake. The effective stacks are such that there is no reason to go full pot, even though the board is a little wet. You can go considerably smaller and set up a river shove.

Preflop, I never open that much without limpers, but it is totally fine at many tables. The first caller called anyway with 65s.

Opponent cold called with 56s a 7.5x raise at less than 150bb stack depth. This is typical 1/2 behavior and IS the baseline. Generally.

Entire hand seems like a massive punt, apart from the final call. Maybe reads make it less bad.

On the upside at least we hit a misdeal on the turn, so we didn't lose anything.

FWIW the point of the UTG range check on 873tt (or, really, anytime we check after being the aggressor previously) isn't that we never have hands we can bet, it's that we need to use those good hands to defend the rest of our checking range.
But it's fine, keep blasting pot with all pairs and check folding AK ... didn't work out this time but we'll make it up in volume.

This made me chuckle more than it should.

This really is a very basic cooler, of course we're going nowhere with top set. I don't mind a flop bet with this vulnerable hand but it should be smaller if you don't check. The turn bet is also fine but after a big flop bet are you expecting to get called by an 8? Or are you just going after overpairs and draws (mostly flush draws as 5 got there and you double block T9). But obviously you're not folding top set when this can be worse value very frequently

This hand plays itself. Bad beat. Id go smaller ott just cuz you can ship river easily anyway, but im snapping a shove anyway

This hand reminds me of a hand that I played before.

I opened EP, two flats, bb (main V) flats with JJ.

Flop was like your flop, 783 two tone.

bb led for pot-size bet. H raised (2.5x), fold, fold, bb folded JJ faced-up.

The other similar aspects to your hand is that if a J especially Jd hits on the later street, it can cause bb to lose his whole stack.

With your hand it's just a standard cooler I think.

15 cold from utg at 1/2 lol

Standard stack off.

Personally I like either going 1/4 pot or checking flop, potentially check raising vs small sizing or other tells. As played I would also plan on sizing down turn a little so you can go something like 2/3 pot turn and 2/3 pot jam river.

Preflop sizing is honestly fine if people are calling all day with worse and you aren't getting 3bet a lot. If this is the type of 1/2 game where people are going to cold call QJo for 15 out if the SB then raising to 15 can't be that bad. Just play a tight linear range pre. 99 is fine.

What exactly is funny about that?