Flush draw on a middle paired board in a 4b pot - turn decision
Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
UTG: $0.67 (34 bb)
CO (Hero): $2.02 (101 bb)
BU: $1.60 (80 bb)
SB: $6.53 (327 bb)
BB: $1.60 (80 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with 8♦ A♦
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.05, 2 players fold, BB 3-bets to $0.16, Hero 4-bets to $0.49, BB calls $0.33
Flop: ($0.99) 9♣ T♦ T♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.24, BB calls $0.24
Turn: ($1.47) 3♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero?
Villain is 31/22 with 7.1 3bet over about 100 hands. I have him as a lag.
Thought process:
Pre: i guess i could fold to 3bet, but i think 4b is ok (i like calling the least). I dont really know what the villains realistic flatting range is oop - AQs, AJs, KQs, KJs and maybe TT-88? Gto wizard suggests mostly AQs, KJs, and AA, JJ, TT, KTs plus a bunch of suited connectors at low frequencies, but im not sure real players at 2nl play it like that.
Flop: i think pretty standard. Im planning to fold to a raise, probably bet turn if i pick up equity and give up if i dont.
Turn: i think i always bet my flush draws here, but im not sure about the sizing. Thinking about my value, i would probably want to bet 10-25% and shove river with my boats, and maybe shove here with trips to get the villain off their equity. I would check back with a 9 (not sure what 9 i have here except A9s). So the most nutted line is a small bet and shove river, but i dont think i would get any fold equity that way (and even when i hit river, i might not get paid), while i might fold out better with a shove and i still have decent equity vs better hands if i shove and get called, except for one combo of T9s if villain plays that (if he does, im not mad if i pay him off). If i bet small and get shoved on, i think its a 100% call.
Looking at the solver, it mostly bets 25% and gives up on brick rivers (checks back/folds to a bet) with diamond draws, which (giving up) is, i guess, a byproduct of low spr on the river.
7 Replies
Don't 4bet shortstacks with speculative combos. They'll punt too often and we have to fold minus 25% of our stack. Moreso vs a lag
Don't 4bet shortstacks with speculative combos. They'll punt too often and we have to fold minus 25% of our stack. Moreso vs a lag
I definitely see what you mean. Would you 4bet a solver 80bb range in this situation, or tighter? (this table was actually limited to 80bb buyin i think) Call or fold in this situation? As i said, i like calling the least, but if we remove raising, im not so sure.
BB 3bet to 8bb, you can call pretty wide vs this size even if they're a bit short. The 3bet% is not super meaningful with this sample, but still: if they really 3bet 7.1% they under-3bet, and most people under-3bet from BB to start with, so I would be cautious using solver's 4bet range. And once again the solver 4bet range is constructed facing a much bigger 3bet, which favors 4bet over call: worse price for our call, better reward for our 4bet when they fold.
BB 3bet to 8bb, you can call pretty wide vs this size even if they're a bit short. The 3bet% is not super meaningful with this sample, but still: if they really 3bet 7.1% they under-3bet, and most people under-3bet from BB to start with, so I would be cautious using solver's 4bet range. And once again the solver 4bet range is constructed facing a much bigger 3bet, which favors 4bet over call: worse price for our call, better reward for our 4bet when they fold.
I see. The sizing was also a factor in my decision, but in the opposite way - i thought i could attack the smaller sizing a bit wider. Is that not true?
Just fold pre, BB 3B ranges at nl2 are supper nutted. 4bet size is too big given he is 80bb
Jam turn ap you fold out some stronger AX KQ type of hands.
that's weird, haven't seen that before.
RE: 4betting, these CO gtow ranges will be calibrated for 3b ranges that don't exist. i.e. the 'gto' adjustment would be to ditch some of these speculative hands becuase OOP is too linear.
I guess you guys are right and we can exploitative fold pre.
I though the turn spot was kinda interesting, as my most nutted line is small bet>jam, but i dont think it generates enough fold equity vs a low-level thinking opponent.
Regarding 80bb buyins - idk why, but at least at 2nl some portion of the tables on ACR is capped to that.
Results:
Spoiler
I shoved, he called with AcQc. I felt like a fool - guess nothing generates fold equity here haha
