Facing a turn raise w overpair 200bb deep
Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
UTG: $4.13 (207 bb)
CO: $4.01 (201 bb)
BU (Hero): $3.91 (196 bb)
SB: $0.79 (40 bb)
BB: $2.13 (107 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with Q♠ Q♥
1 fold, CO raises to $0.06, Hero 3-bets to $0.18, 2 players fold, CO calls $0.12
Flop: ($0.39) 6♥ J♣ 5♣ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.29, CO calls $0.29
Turn: ($0.97) 9♠ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.48, CO raises to $1.44, Hero?
Villain is a fishy guy, but i dont have a big sample - 33/19/0 over ~150 hands. Other stats like f3b, fcb are over too small of a sample (5-10 hands) to judge.
Preflop/flop pretty standard i think. This guy might have a bit wider calling range. Probably has Jx, flush draws, straight draws like 87, maybe JT, J9, T9, 98, two pairs with 65, lower pairs with TT-77, maybe some overcards and slowplayed sets.
On the turn, i dont really like it - 87 gets there, 99 hits a set, J9 gets two pair, he picks up some gutshots etc. Still, i didnt consider checking back. Maybe i should have used a bigger size. Now, after he raises, i dont like it even more. Not a lot of bluffs for a passive guy to make a play for it. He could be overvaluing top pair with Jx - i dont block neither Jx nor flush draws, which id like him to have here. Still, he probably has some equity and there is a lot of rivers that i would really hate. Do i continue here? Should i try to get it in and protect my equity? 100bb deep, i probably would call off, but when a lot of money gets in im a lot less confident in my overpair. What do i do when he inevitably jams river? Call off on bricks, fold when draws get there?
7 Replies
They always have it when they take this line, in my opinion.
I know it's completely anedoctal, but anyway below the 3 turn x/r I faced today in a very long session. In the 2nd one I hesitated to fold turn honestly, but I just could not bring myself to commit this crime. The 3rd one does not go to showdown but I'm pretty sure I should just fold turn also.
In my experience at microstakes, most turn raises are just nutted. This was known 20 years ago (https://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/th...) and I believe it still holds.
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
BTN: 133.4 BB
SB: 118.4 BB
BB: 104.6 BB
UTG: 254.8 BB
MP: 131.5 BB
Hero (CO): 102.7 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ 7♥
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold
Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) T♥ 4♥ Q♠
SB checks, Hero bets 1.9 BB, SB calls 1.9 BB
Turn: (9.8 BB, 2 players) 3♠
SB checks, Hero bets 6.1 BB, SB raises to 16.9 BB, Hero calls 10.8 BB
River: (43.6 BB, 2 players) 9♥
SB checks, Hero bets 46 BB, SB calls 46 BB
Hero shows Q♥ 7♥ (Flush, Queen High)
SB mucks A♣ A♠ (One Pair, Aces)
Hero wins 128.8 BB
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 65.8 BB
BB: 51 BB
UTG: 113.8 BB
MP: 84.4 BB
CO: 80.4 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♥ Q♠
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB
Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 2♦ J♣ J♠
BB checks, Hero bets 1.7 BB, BB calls 1.7 BB
Turn: (8.9 BB, 2 players) 7♦
BB checks, Hero bets 5.6 BB, BB raises to 16.4 BB, Hero calls 10.8 BB
River: (41.7 BB, 2 players) 7♠
BB bets 30.4 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 30.4 BB
BB shows 7♥ 7♣ (Four of a Kind, Sevens)
Hero shows J♥ Q♠ (Full House, Jacks full of Sevens)
BB wins 97.4 BB
€0.10 NL FAST (6 max)
BTN: 90.9 BB
SB: 93.5 BB (VPIP: 25.50, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 2.54, Hands: 893)
Hero (BB): 104.3 BB
UTG: 39.1 BB
MP: 135.9 BB
CO: 107.9 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♥ 9♥
fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB
Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 9♦ A♣ 9♠
SB checks, Hero bets 1.9 BB, SB calls 1.9 BB
Turn: (9.8 BB, 2 players) T♠
SB checks, Hero bets 6.1 BB, SB raises to 27.6 BB, Hero calls 21.5 BB
River: (65 BB, 2 players) 6♦
SB bets 61 BB and is all-in, fold
SB wins 61.8 BB
They always have it when they take this line, in my opinion.
I know it's completely anedoctal, but anyway below the 3 turn x/r I faced today in a very long session. In the 2nd one I hesitated to fold turn honestly, but I just could not bring myself to commit this crime. The 3rd one does not go to showdown but I'm pretty sure I should just fold turn also.
In my experience at microstakes, most turn raises are just nutted. This was known 20 years ago (
The article talks about raising IP. OOP, i personally would raise, say, flush draws, so my river bet looks less face up. Do you think it still holds up, when the villain is OOP? Is it only vs fish? Would their range include like TPTK or always better?
Fun hand histories, i liked the one where the guy slowplayed aces and got it in where you already hit a flush the most (might have or might have not done that in the past myself).
You aren't doing great vs this, but you do get the occasional turn raise AJ/KJ from recs that want to retain the betting lead (although this is more frequently used in position rather than a c/r).
I would call and call small river bets, then fold any time he bombs it. The chances of a passive player finding a turn check raise bluff, then shoving the river deep stacked is minimal.
You aren't doing great vs this, but you do get the occasional turn raise AJ/KJ from recs that want to retain the betting lead (although this is more frequently used in position rather than a c/r).
I would call and call small river bets, then fold any time he bombs it. The chances of a passive player finding a turn check raise bluff, then shoving the river deep stacked is minimal.
The possibility of a non-shove river bet hadnt even crossed my mind to be honest. In my mind, there were only 3 options - fold, i get it in here, he gets it in on the river and i have to call all in/fold all the same. Are there really any non-shove bets there with either value or bluffs, or do we think that would be a rec afraid to pull the trigger?
Results:
Spoiler
I folded, no reveal.
Actually I misread the SPR! It does look setup for the shove yeah, although I wouldn't say a rec shoves river here 100%, its still going to be at a high frequency.
I doubt there are bluffs in his range, especially after your large cbet and the fact that bluffing frequencies go way down deep stacked. It looks like a good fold.
It's a fold. This is one of those hands where theory meets reality. In theory, w/ position you should probably call. In reality in a 3-bet pot at these stakes, if someone XR the turn, you're usually cooked.
I like the fold, these spots are very annoying and at these stakes+no stats/notes, I think getting away from it will save you a lot of trouble.
